Boxing 3/10 - 3/11

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +1.40 units
1 unit plays: 2-1 -2.75
1/2 unit plays: 22-5 +3.9
Dogs: 8-15 +0.25


3/10

Garcia-Rubio over 9.5 -220...lay .55 to win .25 (winner)

Augustus-Morua over 9.5 -230...lay .55 to win .25 (winner)


3/11

Sturm-Masoe under 11.5 +190...lay .2 to win .4 (loser)

Parlay

Piccirillo-Konecny over 11.5 -300 / Sidorinko-Cordoba over 11.5 -280...lay .3 to win .25 (winner)


gl bl


Futures
3/18 Rahman over Toney +165...lay .3 to win .50
3/18 Toney by 12 round decision +156...lay .3 to win .45
4/19 Mundine-Green over 9.5 +110...lay .45 to win .50

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

With you and thanks.



SMOKE

 

[amhlilhaus]

box, out of curiosity why do you like the under? and have you ever seen fightwriter . com? he seems to do some pretty good analysis.

thanks.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

haus

I briefly checked out the fightwriter and he seems to know the game pretty well. However, I try to avoid reading other opinions on fights untill I've made my final plays. Esp when the opinion comes from a writer who doesn't risk his own money on his predictions. Even if the opinion comes from a solid handicapper, I don't want to hear it untill I've made my own decision. Mayorgafan is the best boxing capper I know, we keep in touch every week, but I don't contact him untill I've made all my bets for the week. Thats just the way I am.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Sturm-Masoe under 11.5 +190


Why Masoe could get stopped...

* 40 years old and hasn't fought in 22 months
* has only gone past 8 rounds once
* has only gone past 6 rounds twice
* was stopped in the 5th round by Samaniego in '00
* was stopped in the 3rd round by Mendoza in '00

Why Masoe could stop Sturm...

* 25 ko's in his 26 wins
* 22 ko's in the first 5 rounds
* stopped Ashira in 2 rounds, Ashira went 12 with Calzaghe in his next fight


In summary...

This fight is in Sturm's backyard of Germany, Masoe knows he won't win a decision here. And Masoe's people are predicting an early KO for their fighter which confirms that Masoe will start fast. I like the under b/c I think Masoe will either stop Sturm early, or wear himself out trying to get it done. You can tell by Masoe's record that he always comes out swinging, even when he's fighting at home, so you know he'll be going for it early in this fight given the situation.

However, I don't expect Masoe to catch Sturm early or late. Masoe is 40 years old and hasn't fought in almost 2 years. Sturm is in his prime and he's very elusive when he wants to be.

I think Masoe will wear himself out in the first 6 to 8 rounds if he doesn't get caught with a counter before that happens. Sturm is not a huge banger but he does have some pop when he sits down on his punches, and believe me by the end of this fight Sturm will have plenty of chances to load up.

As mentioned, Masoe was stopped by both Samaniego and Mendoza in 2000. The kicker here is that neither of those guys were legit 160 lb'ers like Sturm. Mendoza was fighting at 154 before stepping up in weight 8 months prior to stopping Masoe in the 3rd. Samaniego was fighting at 147 less than two years prior to stopping Masoe in the 5th.

Sturm is legit 160 lb'er with a 4" height advantage so he'll be punching downhill at Masoe who couldn't avoid punches from the very limited Mendoza or the extremely slow Samaniego. By the end of the fight, Sturm will be landing at will on Masoe who will punch himself out in first half of the fight.


Did I mention the +190

gl bl

 

[amhlilhaus]

thanks, always appreciate the input.

 

[armageto]

Anyone like the Rus..Chag.. under at 7.5 (-110)? From what Iunderstand about V.V, he's not the most mobile guy out there. He should be rather easy to hit, thus a descent chance at the under......

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Anyone like the Rus..Chag.. under at 7.5 (-110)? From what Iunderstand about V.V, he's not the most mobile guy out there. He should be rather easy to hit, thus a descent chance at the under......

No play for me, but someone obviously likes the over

You can now get the under 7.5 +125 at pinny and the under 8.5 -105 at 5dimes

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Small Parlay

Piccirillo-Konecny over 11.5 -300 / Sidorinko-Cordoba over 11.5 -280...lay .3 to win .25

gl bl

 

[frank s.]

I was going to post why I like the under with Masoe-Strum, but you said it all. I mean, all of a sudden a guy who hasn't fought in a coon's age manages to last 12 full rounds, with a very decent ring tech. This concerns me because it seems so apparent, just like Lacy dropping Calzaghe! I feel the rational here is that Strum is very smart and has good skills. He is of the hit and don't get hit school. Masoe seems to have dropped out of that academic endeavor. If Strum stays even a little busy Masoe, IMHO, should be sucking wind by the eight round. Something does smell a little fishy here, but I just ain't getting my read on it.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Glad to hear you like the under frankie


I don't think you're missing anything, like you said Sturm is a hit and not get hit type of fighter. Masoe is a ko artist so the oddsmakers are expecting Sturm to be on his bicycle the entire fight.

I expect Sturm to box from the outside also, but only for the first 6 rounds or so while Masoe throws bomb after bomb. Once Masoe tires, and he will tire, Sturm will turn it on and hopefully stop Masoe in the middle to late rounds.

gl frank

bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Garcia-Rubio over 9.5 -220...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

When I'm at the gym, I watch the guys playing full court hoops. Same guys mostly. The guys who aren't regulars get winded and can't make fast breaks or fall back in transition. Point being boxing is at least 5 times more demanding than amatuer basketball. They start out strong but get fatigued. Masoe, I'm hoping, will display similiar tendencies. Full of piss and vinegar out of the gate, but not ready for the long haul. Seems he knows one style and one style only; a one trick pony. If Strum throws punches it looks decent. If he does the Lance Armstrong bicycle routine and plays "catch me f**k me", we could be in for a long nite.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Augustus-Morua over 9.5 -230...lay .55 to win .25


Line available at 5dimes


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good Start

Good Start

Piccirillo wins by 12 round UD

The over comes in keeping the parlay alive

 

[MayorgaFan]

That was interesting, Rubio hit the wall late in that fight and may have lost it. I had him up 6-4 after 10 but he lost the lost 2 and got dropped (so I had garcia by 1.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Very Nice

Very Nice

Rubio-Garcia over 9.5 cashes

The decision should be interesting, Rubio got his ass kicked late in the fight. Garcia was just too big for him.

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

BOX. Where can we watch results online? Thanks,


SMOKE

 

[MayorgaFan]

119-109 for Garcia? lol. Glad I stayed away from that fight. I figured if it went to a dec Rubio would win. Garcia did a good job though and wore him down late after losing quite a few early rounds.

 

[MayorgaFan]

BOX. Where can we watch results online? Thanks,


SMOKE

I am not boxlox but fightnews.com is a good place and so is boxrec.com