Boxing 3/4 - 3/5

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +9.5 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 4-0 +3.75
.5 unit plays: 15-10 -.7
Dogs: 12-10 +4.45

3/4
Carbajal-Lacierva over 10 -105 1/2 unit (loser)
Pavlik-Beaupierre over 9.5 -150 1/2 unit (loser)
Hoye-Woods over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit (loser)
Dogs
Carbajal over Lacierva +165...lay .2 to win .35 (winner)
Woods over Hoye +145...lay .2 to win .3..........(winner)
Juarez-Ramirez under 9.5 +285...lay .2 to win .55 (winner)
Beaupierre over Pavlik +850...lay .1 to win .85 (loser)
Ramirez over Juarez +720...lay .1 to win .7 (loser)

3/5 Parlays
Sturm -700 / Rowland over 9.5 -290...lay .5 to win .25 (loser)
Sturm -700 / Castillo over Diaz -345...lay .5 to win .25 (winner)
Sturm -700 / Castillo-Diaz over 6 -345...lay .5 to win .25 (winner)

Lacy inside distance -330 / Castillo -360...lay .35 to win .25 (winner)

3/5 Dogs
Lacy-Williams under 8.5 +100...1/2 unit...........(winner)
Zuniga over Rowland +950...lay .1 to win .95....(winner)
Diaz by 12 round decision +592...lay .1 to win .6 (loser)

gl bl

Futures
Green-Beyer under 9.5 -135 1/2 unit
Pacquaio by 12 round decision +300..lay .3 to win .9
Tszyu wins inside distance -120 1 unit

 

[frank s.]

Like it. Sorry about the Cotto mess. He is one of the Puerto Rican darlings, so we know what can happen. I got Pac man at even money for the win, but +300 ain't too shabby. Word is Hatton really can't box. I am not certain of his skills or lack thereof. I would'nt judge how good Tszyu is after the Mitchell joke. But Tszyu comes prepared and I won't lay the large lumber but inside the distance is worth a long look.

 

[MayorgaFan]

Hatton's not a bad boxer at all. In fact he has quicker hands and feet than Tszyu. That's not to say I think he's going to win because I think he leaves himself to open sometimes. Hatton isn't that bad though and if the fight gets past 6 rounds it will be real interesting. Hatton has excellent stamina.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I hedged the Tszyu bet with Hatton by 12 round decision at +558...very good value on a Hatton decision, I don't see him stopping Tszyu.

 

[frank s.]

How about this w/e with Castillo-Diaz? This is one time I really don't have any idea whatsoever. Maybe a round prop is the ticket?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hatton's not a bad boxer at all. In fact he has quicker hands and feet than Tszyu. That's not to say I think he's going to win because I think he leaves himself to open sometimes.

Thats exactly why I like Tszyu inside distance BIG. Hatton only knows how to fight one way and that style leaves himself open to counter. The kicker here is that Hatton doesn't have much power, he does cumulative damage (mostly to the body) and wears his opponents down. His go-for-broke style combined with his stamina are what make Hatton as a fighter. He's willing to take a few shots to get off a few shots and thats a suicide strategy against Tszyu. To beat Kostya you have to outbox him, get your shots in and get out, stick and move with a heavy emphasis on defence. I don't think Hatton is capable of doing any of that, it would take him completely away from his A-game and you can't beat a fighter like Tszyu without your A-game.

Hatton doesn't have the right style to outbox Tszyu, and he doesn't have enough one punch power to keep Tszyu off him. Unless Hatton has an unreal chin I expect him to be dropped early and often in this fight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

frankie
I would seriously consider the over if Diaz wasn't stopped in the first round by Juan Valenzuela 3 years ago.

Diaz could be a live dog b/c he's a switch hitter. I was very impressed with his ability to change stances with ease against Burtan who is also a switch hitter but Diaz made him look stupid every time he attempted the transfer. The kicker here is that Castillo had problems getting off and landing against the slick southpaw Casamayor, many thought Casa won the fight. I think Diaz will memorize the Casa-Cast bout and will fight mostly from the southpaw stance.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Playing these this weekend...

3/4
Carbajal-Lacierva over 10 -105 1/2 unit
Pavlik-Beaupierre over 9.5 -150 1/2 unit
Hoye-Woods over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit
Dogs
Carbajal over Lacierva +165...lay .2 to win .35
Woods over Hoye +145...lay .2 to win .3
Juarez-Ramirez under 9.5 +285...lay .2 to win .55
Beaupierre over Pavlik +850...lay .1 to win .85

3/5 Dogs
Lacy-Williams under 8.5 +100...1/2 unit
Zuniga over Rowland +950...lay .1 to win .95


I always post a reply of my plays because I edit the top page to grade wagers and adjust totals as results come in.
This reply shows my original plays and will not be edited. Any changes will be posted in additional replies if needed.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Interesting

The line has moved on all 9 of the plays I posted, must be a coincidence...lol

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Actually 1 of the lines moved against me, the Pavlik-Beaupierre over moved to -147, my bad

 

[MayorgaFan]

....

....

When you had posted that the lines all went the same way as you, you were correct at the time. Pavlik over was -156 at the time. It dropped to -147 a little after that, then went back to -152 Also, I was shocked to see that anyone else got Lacy at +100. I was watching as pinny was putting up the numbers lol I bet it as well.

As for Hatton-Tszyu, I don't disagree with your play. I just feel that Hatton's abilities are being overlooked a bit. He showed nice boxing skills aganst Ben Tackie and against Eammon Magee. Hatton's chin is solid but not granite. A very old Vince Phillips shook him and Eammon Magee put him on his ass (in round 1) and hurt him in round 2 as well. After that though Hatton outboxed/outworked Magee.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I was very suprised to see the Lacy under open +100 at pinny when it was -125 at joey's place. I liked the play at -125 but I don't have an account there so I went over to pinny and jumped on it, they must have just opened the lines cause they weren't up when I checked 5 minutes earlier.

 

[gardenweasel]

calling hatton a boxer is a bit of a stretch,imo.....hatton`s game is his activity level...although, he does give his opponent angles...while almost always going forward..

he outworks guys....and goes to the body pretty well....

he can`t be careless against tszyu....but he isn`t exactly a defensive wizard...his offense is his game...not really his power....

i could outbox ben tackie....tackie is a plodder...durable...but slow as shit...

in his prime,tszyu would destroy hatton....now?....

in england...at his age,i`m not as sure...he`s been very inactive...and the mitchell win was way to easy....

tszyu has 2 rounds and change under his belt in over 2 years....that`s really bad....at 35 yrs old...

the problem is that ricky hatton basically overwhelms opponents with activity...i don`t recall seeing him back up a helluva lot....and if tszyu still has it at 35,it will be a beatdown...

tszyu`s been down before...can hatton just overwhelm him?.....

when you have 35 year old guys fighting in an opponent`s backyard....off of a long stretch of inactivity...that`s scary if you are laying odds....


i think back to barry mcguigan beating eusebio pedroza back in the day....pedroza wasn`t at all like tszyu style-wise.....but he was on a roll and was a very good fighter.....was dominating guys back then....always fighting guys in their backyard....and winning handily....

.mcguigan outworked him....pedroza seemed to get old that night.....

you never know....i think b.l.`s hedge is a good idea...

the scary thing is can hatton possibly stop tszyu?....if tszyu is stale and overconfident from the mitchell fight....maybe he can`t get off and hatton overwhelms him....

stranger things have happened...urkal hung tough with him....

 

[gardenweasel]

btw...what happened with dokiwari/bean and salem/ballagou?.....

i`ve been busy recently and haven`t been following things of late....

thanks...

 

[MayorgaFan]

....

....

card got cancelled because of lack of ticket sales.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Ramirez over Juarez +720...lay .1 to win .7

Diaz over Castillo by 12 round decision +592...lay .1 to win .6

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Woods won!

Unfortunatly the over didn't...tko 5

That should set up a fight between Woods and Calzaghe at 175

 

[patlives]

Box any thoughts on this one??

Almazbek Raiymkulov vs. Koba Gogoladze
Odds to win the Raiymkulov vs Gogoladze fight
Who will win the Raiymkulov vs Gogoladze fight?

501 Almazbek Raiymkulov -280
502 Koba Gogoladze +200
503 Draw +1200

* Note: Lightweight Fight - Silver Star Hotel & Casino - Choctaw, Mississippi (Showtime)
Almazbek Raiymkulov vs Koba Gogoladze Total Rounds
Total rounds for the Raiymkulov vs Gogoladze fight

504 Over 9.5 rounds -145
505 Under 9.5 rounds +115

 

[BOXLOCKS]

You can get much better odds on the dog and the over at pinny, 5dimes, and Oly.

The line movement on this fight is very interesting. The over opened at -135 and stayed there untill just now it moved down to -123. The under money is obviously based on Raiym's power and comes from betters who don't want to lay the wood on him straight.

Raiymkulov opened at -270 and stood untill just now he went down to -266. Must be a few betters out there that think Koba's southpaw style could give Raiym a hard time so they took the +money. I noticed Koba has a tendancy to hit the canvass, so if he decides to trade with Raiym its all over, I dought he will trade though having very little power.

After looking at Koba's last fight, I'd say he has little chance of outboxing a much better fighter than his previous competition. But the southpaw stance can be hard to figure out if you're not used to it. If KD has no problem adjusting to the lefty it should be an easy night for him. I don't like the line movement against Raiym, nor do I like laying wood against southpaws. 3-1 is too much for me in this one and the total is a crap shoot so no play for me.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hey MF

I see a +135 on the Lacy over 8.5

You scalping or riding this one?