Boxing 4/08 - 4/09

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Totals: +14.45 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 5-0 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 19-12 +.1
Dogs: 22-16 +7.75


4/8 Dogs
Zuniga over Zertuche +160...lay .2 to win .3 (push)
Zuniga-Zertuche over 11.5 +100...lay .25 (winner)

4/9 Dogs
Barrera-Fana over 9.5 +155...lay .2 to win .3 (loser)
Montiel over Hernandez +139...lay .35 to win .5 (winner)
Hedge
Hernandez wins by 12 round decision +288...lay .1 to win .3 (loser)


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Barrera-Fana

Barrera-Fana

My reasons for playing the over 9.5...

* +155...The + money is a big part of my play

* over 9.5...obviously much easier to hit than over 11.5

* The fact that some books have the over 8.5 at -130, I know there's a difference between 8.5 and 9.5 but it shouldn't change the price that much. The over 8.5 -125's have been around for a few weeks now, still not moving, and the over 9.5 moved down to +140.

* Fana is a legit 130 pounder, and so is Suico. After watching their fight, I'd have to say that Suico is a very big 130'er, stood at least 2 " taller than Fana and appeared thicker. Its no secret that Suico is a big puncher at 130 and Fana while being dropped twice did get up to go the distance.

* Barrera has only fought once at 130 and that was against Morales who just recently stepped up to 130 himself. In 2000, while Fana and Suico were fighting at 130, Morales and Barrera were fighting at 122.

* Suico appeared to be 2 or 3 inches taller than Fana, but Barrera is 2" shorter than Suico so he won't be much taller than Fana.

* As Spread stated, Fana is very fast on his feet, if he feels Barrera's power and doesn't like it, he can run the entire fight.
* S. Africans are stereotypically very tough fighters, kinda like Russians, they're born tough. Fana was dropped twice by Suico but got up each time to finish the fight. Fana has never been stopped.

* Barrera has gone over 9.5 rounds in 7 of his last 10 fights


Like I said, the +155 is a big part of my play. I would not play the over 8.5 at -130, decent + money or no play. This is not a lock, if Fana gets overconfident he could get dropped, but he said in an interview that his advantage over Barrera is his tremendous speed. If he uses it, this fight should go over.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i see your point...one thing to keep in mind is that barrera is much,much quicker than slow suico.....

suico is like pacquaio minus the quicks...

but....and it`s a big but...barrera...when fighting guys like fana...who is a boxer...is very patient...patient to a fault...like marquez....which,imo,is the reason both had such trouble with fast starting pacquaio...

they like to pick guys apart at their leisure...work the body...break a guy down.....they`re so used to getting mad respect from opponents..

which is why,i think the over has some merit...

particularly with barrera coming off the huge morales win....

i can see him coasting a bit....get some work.....it`s doubtful that fana will be able to hurt him...he certainly should be on his horse..


one writer from the phillipines that i read said that fana`s chin is very suspect....and that barrera`s body work will get him within 6....

maybe he`s pissed that fana beat his boy suico...lol

best of luck.....you have a solid shot here,imo...not sure if i`ll play...but,i seriously question barrera`s focus here...

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I'm watching the Bowe-Zumbrun fight right now, I didn't post anything but I have Zumbrun +550 small. He rocked Bowe bad in the 5th and the 6th. Bowe is getting tired. My play was against Bowe more than with Zumbrun, at this point it looks solid, at +550 nit was worth a shot. Lets see how it turns out.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

A split decision for Bowe but Zumbrun landed the better shots and did the better work throughout the fight. If it wasn't for Bowe's jab this fight would have been a mismatch.

Bowe is a fat old slob with nothing left. I don't care how bad the heavyweight division is right now, Bowe would get slaughtered by anyone in the top 20.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, did I really hear Bowe call Toney a bum???

:142lmao:

I would call Bowe a hypocrit but he's much worse than a bum.
Toney would make a fool out of Bowe, and it wouldn't take long.

 

[Spreadking]

alright I watched Ivan Hernandez Ko 8 Mark Johnson

Hernandez is big . reminds me of a young Erik Morales, he could easily move up to 122, 126 in a few years. He is open for counters, but he throws so many punches. works the body. If he can keep Montiel backing up and keeps his punches tight, not missing, I think he can dominate the fight. Montiel didn't like the pressure that Too Sharp put on him. Hernandez did got caught by a Johnson punch and was wobbled. I guarantee almost every other 118 lber would have went down. Too Sharp could always punch. I believe too Sharp wasn't in great shape, and Hernandez wouldn't let him breathe and wore him down. probably won't bet the fight though.

 

[gardenweasel]

well,that just shows you how differently people see fights...i don`t recall johnson pressing montiel...i remember 2 guys that were way to tentative...of course,it`s been awhile since i watched the fight....that`s what i remember...and i remember montiel going after johnson in the later rounds...when johnson tired..the konockdown was a flash..montiel wasn`t hurt...

i believe part of that was johnson`s lefty stance...as montiel`s draw was also vs a lefty...

montiel is very quick...he`s still very young....he`s used to fighting the mexican style fighter...it`s what he does best..counter...and use angles...

i haven`t seen hernandez...but,i`ve been hearing good things about him.....he may be the next morales....or chavez...or ricardo lopez....

no,he won`t be the next ricardo lopez...lol

but,i`m taking the shot with the experienced montiel...who i always thought was an extremely talented fighter...well rounded...with an excellent resume...

wins over cruz carbajal(t.k.o.4)..pedro alcazar(t.k.o 6...who died shortly after the fight)...heavy punching jose carita lopez(by ud..nobody stops lopez)...he retired unbeaten zoltan lunka in germany(tko 7).....tough isidro garcia(tko 7)...all stoppages other than lopez...

and he has wins over solid peripheral guys like sam lopez and juan domingo cordoba...both stoppages..

look at the resumes of these fighters..excellent..

montiel isn`t just a boxer...he can punch...

maybe hernandez is all that......he`s probably going to be the naturally bigger guy....


.but,beating an old mark johnson just isn`t enough to sway me from not taking the +145 with montiel when it opened...a montiel that was being considered maybe one of the next great mexiacn fighters prior to johnson....

several respected guys think hernandez is very good..maybe he`s to big...

i`ve seen montiel...he`s very good...i can`t explain the johnson loss...some think montiel doesn`t have the stones....

i find that hard to buy considering his resume...

i took the +145....if hernandez is a potential super fighter,maybe i`ll lose..maybe he`s to big.....

.his record other than the johnson win is dubious,at best...and i believe that johnson was close to being shot at this point in his career..i think his people saw hernandez as safe with a big money fight vs luis hernandez in the wings...maybe he overlooked hernandez..

again,i can`t understand what happened to montiel vs johnson...unless it`s just lefties that trouble him...

i couldn`t turn down those odds with a proven champion...a very young,but experienced fighter.....a very well rounded fighter..that`s fighting a guy with a very typical mexiacn style that he`s seen and beaten before....that i`ve seen with my own eyes several times...

going against the odds makers...and some solid cappers...we`ll see...i had to take the shot...

hernandez proves to be a great fighter,so be it....

i can take it....lol

 

[Spreadking]

I hear you

I thought Montiel was scared to mix it up with Too Sharp early. your right, Too Sharp fought at a measured pace, but Montiel was still waiting forever. I thought Johnson won most of the late rounds as well, even though Montiel was landing power punches.
oh yeah, Montiel has an impressive record. he has been taking it easy since the Johnson loss though. I am laying off the fight myself.

 

[gardenweasel]

spread...you make some solid points...i am definitely in the minority regarding montiel`s chances here...

it will be very interesting to see who steps up here...it would be a crushing loss for montiel after losing to johnson....

i`m disappointed that this fight hasn`t created more buzz...

i`m hoping that this will be similar to pacquaio/barrera/morales...by that i mean A beats B...and B beats C....so A is automatically expected to beat C.....

we know that styles make fights...

should be interesting....g.l.

and btw...good to have another boxing guy on the board...

 

[gardenweasel]

box...you got robbed last night...i watched most of the zumbrun/bowe fight this morning and i don`t know what rich marotta and whatsisname were watching....they are company guys,i guess...

bowe couldn`t hit jerry quarry today with that right hand(read up on poor jerry)....he landed some jabs...and a few body shots....

zumbrun did much more damage...out punched,out quicked and generally controlled the fight....

another bad decision to try and breath some life into the woeful heavywt division...if bowe is considered life,then heavyweight boxing is deader than jimmy hoffa....

a pathetic joke...you should be upset...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/8 small dog
Zuniga-Zertuche over 11.5 +100...lay .25

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

btw....arthur stopped docherty in the 9th....no wonder my sources were noncommittal...the line was apparently very sharp...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Bowe-Zumbrun

Bowe-Zumbrun

It was a very small play, I knew Zumbrun wasn't much but Bowe is completely washed up and I figured if Zum could take him into the late rounds it could get interesting. It was worth a small shot.

I wonder who Bowe will fight next$

 

[gardenweasel]

one more btw........just saw the weigh-in pictures of montiel/hernandez...montiel 115...hernandez 113.5.....

and i didn`t see any real height disparity....

hope they weigh them again before they enter the ring...

not seeing anything that makes me feel that hernandez is physically that much bigger...maybe stronger...probably not quicker..

we`ll see tomorrow...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Arthur-Docherty

Arthur-Docherty

Ratfarts!!!

I noticed the over 7.5 at 5dimes went from -130 to -138 to -150. I figured something was up, but when I tried to bet on it they said the line was no longer available even though the fight was still on the board!

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Montiel-Hernandez

Montiel-Hernandez

Thats good news for us Montiel backers

I like the fact that Hernandez was rocked by Johnson early in their fight. Montiel punches harder than Johnson and he's quick, he will definitly land some big shots. I'm liking the +139 right about now.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

BTW

BTW

I feel like a jackass, I got home around 11:00 last night and checked the tube to see if the fights were still going as I had no idea what time they went off. Sure enough, they were still on but I realized after the Bowe fight that it was a frickin replay! Sorry for the past post

 

[MayorgaFan]

I'll play devil's advocate on the Hernandez-Montiel fight Even if Hernandez isn't bigger he is stronger. He was able to walk Johnson down and hit his body and head quite well. Johnson didn't look any worse against Hernandez than he did against Montiel. Johnson was just fighting a guy with some heart who came to win. Montiel fought Johnson like a scared pussy through the first 7-8 rounds. ALSO, Hernandez got hurt in round 6 or 7 off a perfect right hook from Johnson. As Spreadking mentioned, it's the type of punch that would mess anyone up. Johnson CAN hit, that is why Montiel was "fighting" like such a bitch the first 7-8 rounds. I'll probably sit this 1 out, it's a damn risky fight.

 

[gardenweasel]

or,maybe montiel has trouble with some lefties....

you may be right....hernandez may walk him down and destroy him....

or maybe he walks to montiel and gets picked to pieces...

i believe that styles make fights...and maybe montiel has seen many more herrnandez types....mexicans that come to him trying to run him down....than slick lefties like johnson...

or maybe i`m way off...won`t be the first or last time...

when i see a guy that`s as good as i believe that montiel is....fighting a guy with one real win on his resume....vs a guy that i believe was pretty much on his way out ..getting basically +150 is to good to pass up.....

i may be way wrong..i`m certainly in the minority.......we`ll see saturday...