Boxing 4/1 - 4/17

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: -1.82 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 8-3 +1.50
1/2 unit plays: 6-9 -5.55
Dogs: 5-11 +.23

4/2
Lopez-Soto over 10.5 -125 1 unit (loser)
Lopez over Soto -115 1/2 unit (winner)

4/3
Mitchell-Stewart over 10.5 -210 1.5 unit (winner)

4/10
Brodie-Chi over 11.5 -185 1/2 unit (loser)
Judah-Spinks over 10.5 -260 1.5 units (winner)
Judah over Spinks -155 1/2 unit (loser)

4/15 Dog
Williams over Levin +225 to win 1/2 unit (winner)

4/16
Manfredy-Weber over 7.5 -110 1/2 unit (winner)

4/17
Ruiz-Oquendo over 11.5 -125 1 unit (loser)
Harris-Urkal over 11.5 -200 1 unit (winner)
Williams-Martinez over 11.5 -280 1/2 unit (loser)

4/17 Dogs
Oquendo by decision +450 lay .1 to make .45 (loser)
Letterlough +350 lay .1 to make .35 (push)
Mendoza +225 lay .2 to make .45 (loser)
Ahunanya +375 lay .1 to make .375 (loser)
Williamson +325 lay .1 to make .325 (winner)
Williams +250 lay .2 to make .5 (loser)


As usual if you want the logic to any of my picks just ask.

gl bl

 

[damien4191]

boxing

boxing

I like the Judah pick and I also don't think he'll have the power to knock out Spinks at 147.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

4/3
Mitchell-Stewart over 10.5 -210 1 unit

gl bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

Brodie-Chi and Ruiz-Oquendo overs are both real risky IMO.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good luck to you also, mf

A few points of logic just off the top if my head:
(if you need more let me know)

Brodie has never been stopped
Chi has never been stopped
Brodie has gone 12 rounds in his last 4 fights
Chi went 12 rounds with Eric Morales
These guys just fought to a 12 ROUND draw 5 months ago

Oquendo has only been stopped once (tko 9 Tua)
Ruiz has only been stopped once (ko 1 Tua)
I checked and David Tua will not be the third man in the ring.
Neither one of these guys has real power.
The Oquendo stoppage wasn't a ko, the ref stopped it cause he wasn't throwing punches during one of Tua's haymaker binges. Fres walked back to his corner unharmed with a smile on his face.
The -125 was a steal, has already moved and will move again.

Personally I don't see how either of these plays are risky,
but thanks for the information and keep up the good work.

bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

I don't go by paper, I go by what my eyes see. In Brodie and Chi's first fight they had a very bad headbutt because Chi leads with his head. Both guys got a bit busted up because of it. In round 2 Brodie got knocked down and barely beat the count. In round 5 Brodie was hurt again. Brodies face was very busted up by the end and he was lucky to make it to the final bell. Not saying you won't win but having seen the first fight I see it as being real risky.

Oquendo-Ruiz is only risky because Oquendo's stamina is absolutely horrible. He has decent skills. I don;t think Oquendo can stop Ruiz but if Ruiz lands a big right hand late when Oquendo tires he could easily be stopped. There will be a lot of hugging in this fight so I think Oquendo will get more tired than even normal.

Nothing personal and I hope you do well but there is a lot of risk, especially in the Chi-brodie fight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

4/17 Dog
Oquendo over Ruiz +145 to win 1/2 unit

 

[Spalding]

What do you think of Hill-Mormeck?

This could be Virgils final fight--gettin older, can't outquick the best anymore, I believe this is the guy he has lost to already.

He's +380 and it would be a gamble but hell, all he has done is win in his career??? One more?

A better play may be over 9.5 rounds since you sure as hell know he isn't gonna knock anyone down!

Your opinion would be great!!

 

[THE KOD]

A better play may be over 9.5 rounds since you sure as hell know he isn't gonna knock anyone down!

.........................................................................

Spalding

You may be on to something. My question to box would be
will mormeck take out Virgil under ?.

If there was value in the big dog BOX would have already
posted it, if its in April.

KOD

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I believe Hill pulled out due to a shoulder injury.

I'll check and get back later.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Adding

4/2
Lopez-Soto over 10.5 -125 1 unit
Lopez over Soto -115 1/2 unit

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Playing the Mitchell-Stewart over to win 1.5 units

gl bl

 

[wolf]

had hatton/pinto under 10 rounds last thursday but olympic cancelled it & took it off the board. is it off the board everywhere?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Mitchell won by 12 round unanimous decision.

wolf
As posted by gw, Pinto pulled out a few days ago.

Then Pederson was supposed to take his place but the fight was cancelled and then scheduled again with Pederson, I guess???

 

[BOXLOCKS]

It makes sense now...

It makes sense now...

I have been completely baffled for the last few weeks wondering how Tapia could let Archuleta beat him in his back yard. Well as I was going through some rescent boxing news I found an article that explains everything.

Tapia had pneumonia and was suffering from flu-like symptoms that started 10 days before the fight. Even though doctors told him not to fight, he decided it would let to many people down (both politically and personally) if he cancelled, so he decided to fight through the illness and it cost him/us.

At least now I know that it wasn't bad handicapping that cost me a great start to the year, just a lack of inside info. and a bad decision by Tapia to fight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Spalding & KOD
Hill-Mormeck was rescheduled for 5/22. You are right in thinking that Hill won't ko Mormeck, but last time they fought Hill didn't answer the Bell for the 9th round and there's a good chance Mormeck will stop Hill (now 40 years old) in this fight also. So I wouldn't play the over in this one. I won some good cash on Hill in the Lalonde fight last year but Hill looked old and very slow in that fight and should have stopped Lalonde early but didn't. This fight is a no play for me, so far.

 

[Spalding]

Box,

That is a good point about Hill getting knocked out. We all know there is no way in hell he will knock anyone out anymore, but he certainly could get knocked out. We'll see I guess.

Geez Virgil was fun to watch in his prime though! He had quicker hands than anyone he faced except Roy Jones. Just no power.

Once it gets closer I would like to get a play on the fight. Probably the last fight for my fellow Nodak'er!

 

[Oddessa]

'I have been completely baffled for the last few weeks wondering how Tapia could let Archuleta beat him in his back yard. Well as I was going through some rescent boxing news I found an article that explains everything.'

Watched teh same thing happen in New Mex w/ cruz carbajal against Romero. Seems like a jinx down there. I was on Archuleta just bc of Tapias head probs and Arch shows up to fight. He wasnt far from home either. He has Pride.

 

[THE KOD]

He wasnt far from home either. He has Pride.

..........................................................................................

Oddessa

I agree that pride will win fights when all else fails in the
late rounds.

Who are you anyways ?


KOD

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Joey
I agree that Archuleta has heart and shows up to fight but that's all he has and a healthy Tapia would have won easily. Even with pneomonia Tapia won by 6 rounds on one judges scorecard, and the other two had Arch winning by one and two rounds. You can't tell me that a healthy Tapia would have lost that fight.