Boxing 4/15 - 4/16

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +16.05 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 6-0 +5.8
.5 unit plays: 20-12 +.45
Dogs: 24-17 +7.8


4/15 Dogs
Tapia over Archuletta +120 1 unit (winner)
Echols over Ikeke +180...lay .2 to win .35 (loser)

4/16 Dog
Sahaprom-Hasegawa over 11.5 +113...lay .2 to win .25 (winner)

4/15-4/16 Parlay
Tapia-Archuletta over 9.5 -350 / Niida-Kim over 11.5 -330...lay .5 to win .35 (winner)


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/15
Brewer over Nielson +170...lay .2 to win .35

4/15
Echols over Ikeke +180..lay .2 to win .35


Tapia over Archuletta (posted above) is my big dog of the week, I'll post my thoughts on it later.

gl bl

 

[Spreadking]

I believe Nielson pulled out of that fight with Brewer

I need to watch Ikeke's last 2 fights I have on tape. If he can keep Echols from setting his feet and punching, then Ikeke will be able to land and make Echols miss, like Mundine did. but Mundine is very quick on his feet. not sure if Ikeke is. I sent Ikeke the Echols-Mundine fight and got a signed glove in return, so will try not to let my bias get in the way. lol

Tapia looked horrible vs Archuleta, in terms of being fat and looking like he had a fever. They verified he was sick. even though in the first fight, I can make an argument for a draw, but if anybody deserved to win it was Arhculeta. any thoughts on Tapia/Archuleta going the distance, even though it is -300

thanks, good luck

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Tapia-Archuletta II

Tapia-Archuletta II

After these guys fought last year I heard that Tapia was sick but he decided to fight anyway. At first I thought it was just an excuse for losing and damage control by Tapia's wife/manager. A legitimate loss to Archuletta would be devastating so I thought maybe they made the illness up to save his career.

However
After doing some research, I found a few newspaper articles from New Mexico reporting Tapia's stay at the hospital including doctors quotes on his condition directly after the Archuletta fight. The doctors confirmed that Tapia had a serious resperatory infection and that he spent 2 days recovering in the hospital.

I don't have to be a doctor to know that the resperatory system is extremely important when trying to box for 10 rounds. The fact that he actually finished the fight is amazing, not to mention the fact that he almost won.

So we can disregard Tapia's performance and the result of the first fight when capping the rematch. The only thing to remember about the first fight is that Arch almost lost to a guy with a serious resperatory infection.

Archuletta is absolutly horrible, I have seen him fight a couple of times and its not pretty. In 2000 he was ko'd by Kevin Kelley. In 2002, not only did he lose a lopsided unanimous decision to Lucero, he was dropped 3 times in the fight. Lucero is absolutely horrible and he has no power at all. In 2002 Arch lost a maj. dec. to Alajandro Barrera and in 2003 he was destroyed by Rocky Juarez.

Tapia was a 5-1 favorite over Arch in the first match, thats right a 5-1 favorite, and there's reason for that. But Tapia got very sick, lost the fight due to illness, and now Arch is favored in the rematch??? Sweet!!!

Both of these guys are from New Mexico, the first fight was in Arch's hometown of LV and from what I've read there were a lot of Arch fans there. This fight will be in Tapia's hometown of Albuquerque, the crowd this weekend should be pro Tapia big time!

I think Tapia will be very fired up for this fight. He is a very intense and emotional guy who will want to redeem himself after losing the first fight under those conditions. Johnny has a lot of pride and I think he will do whatever it takes to win this fight in front of his hometown fans.

Tapia is the much better fighter, he's healthy this time, he's fighting in his hometown, he has the revenge factor to motivate him, and his pride is on the line. I expect him to give everything he has this weekend, he wants redemption and I think he will get it.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Spread
Archuletta won't stop Tapia, the question is, will Tapia stop Arch. Obviously you can't go by the first fight because Tapia was basically dead. I expect Tapia to make a statement in this fight, and Arch was dropped 3 times by Lucero which is absolutely pathetic as Lucero can't punch a lick. Plus Arch has been stopped by Jaurez and Kelley. To be fair, Juarez has more power in his left hook than Tapia does in his entire body and Kelley dropped Hamed 3 times in 4 rounds so its safe to say that both guys have much more power than Tapia. But Lucero doesn't have more power than Tapia and like I said he dropped Arch 3 times.

Despite the above information, I have a feeling Tapia won't be able to stop Arch in this stage of his career. Tapia wasn't a big puncher in his prime at 122, and he's even less powerful now at 126 and 38 years old.

If Arch couldn't stop Tapia last year when he was half dead, he won't stop him now. Tapia has never been stopped and he went the distance with a much bigger and stronger Barrera 2 years ago. Tapia will not be stopped by a light punching scrub like Arch in front of his home crowd.

I might parlay the over, it looks solid, but I can't lay the wood knowing what happened to Arch in the Lucero fight.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

BTW

BTW

Tapia is now even money at most books

I can't believe Tapia opened at +money considering that he was a 5-1 favorite in the first fight and the fact that he lost on a fluke due to a resperatory infection. Either the oddmakers didn't do their homework or they think that we didn't do ours. I could see opening it at a pick but they should have known that +money on Tapia against a scrub like Arch would get hit hard. Especially with Tapia being healthy and fighting in his hometown with the revenge factor motivating him.

gl bl

 

[Spreadking]

tapia misses press conference

tapia misses press conference

I agree with you Box, and am laying some money on Tapia to win at +100

I lost money on the first fight, with Tapia losing. If Johnny is healthy he wins.

edit = Tapia didn't show up for the press conference yesterday. Hope his brain is on straight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/16 Dog
Sahaprom-Hasegawa over 11.5 +113...lay .2 to win .25

4/15-4/16 Parlay
Tapia-Archuletta over 9.5 -350 / Niida-Kim over 11.5 -330...lay .3 to win .2

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Laying 1 unit to win 1.2 on Tapia tomarrow night

Tapia weighed in at 124.75, his lowest weigh-in since 2000. Tapia says he hasn't been this fired up for a fight since the Ayala rematch, in 2000. Tapia is very focused on this fight and hates the fact that he lost to Arch the first time on a fluke. He wants revenge bad, and he says he wants to go back down to 122 and fight Larios or Vasquez. He would obviously lose to both of them but it proves that he is still focused on boxing. And he is very focused on Arch right now for sure. I love the +money here.

You can still get +107 at pinny

gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Greetings! I'm not sure about Johnny-tap-out, but I am sure that Frankie boy is a disaster. Bad is being kind. At any rate this Echols fight has me perplexed. By all indications it would appers he is the better guy here. I am sure the odds guys are well aware of this. What's with the line? Is this one that easy, that is to say obvious? Not sure if this isn;t a set up deal. I do the see the numbers coming down on Ikeke though. I may grab some Tapia based on your work alone as I can't read this one. Best of luck always with your plays.

 

[Spreadking]

Echols hasn't looked good in a long time.

he got soundly beat by Mundine and never hurt the china chin warrior from down under.

he had to go the distance with Ross Thompson, who has been known to get kayoed. and I heard Thompson stunned him in the bout.

He fought Wilson in December and got dropped. Ikeke has a long right hand and can get power in it. If Echols comes in like always with his hands down he could clocked.

Ikeke fought Primera in his last fight, a face first brawler, so that was a good test stepping up for Echols. Ikeke never appeared hurt, kept up a good work rate and made his opponent quit. watched it the other night, but Ikeke would stop on the ropes for a bit and that's when Echols could get him in trouble.
It's a close fight in my opinion, but I would say the advantage lies with Ikeke. if i had to pick a winner.

I like the over on the Sahaprom fight and will probably tail box.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a little sauce to the parlay...

Laying .5 to win .35

gl bl


Btw, I played Tapia wins inside distance at +722 very small, if Lucero can hurt Arch so can Tapia. I'm not posting it for record, just letting you know that I played it personally and that the line is available at 5dimes if your interested.


frankie
Echols definitly has a punchers chance against the unproven jaw of Ikeke, which is why I took a small shot on him at the big +money.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

BTW

BTW

The Tapia-Archuletta fight will be televised on Telefutura

Starts at 8 central

 

[Flipper13]

I just got in on Tapia too...Hope I won't jinx you guys...Good luck

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I don't believe in jinxes

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

The over looks very good after round 2

1st round was about even, probably went to Arch

2nd round was Tapia's

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hell ya!

Tapia looked very good in the 5th, rocked Arch a few times, the Tapia of old came out

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Arch got the best of him in the 7th

Tapia has abig mouse under his left eye, lots of headbutts, could effect his vision down the stretch

 

[BOXLOCKS]

The mouse is playing a huge role now, Tapia can barely see out of that eye

 

[BOXLOCKS]

WOW

Great ending to a great fight, Arch should probably take it but with the hometown bias its anybody's fight.

The swollen eye played a big role, Tapia was starting to roll when it swelled up.