Play is Julio-210. Feel he is the talent here. Not much more else to say. Actually there is more but I'll just keep it simple.
Boxing; 4/30/2008; Julio-Smith; ESPN
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
is this a "sure thing"?...:shrug:
i kid....if this were a 12`er,i`d take the +175 and hope for the best....
it`s not till tomorrow,so,i`ll wait and see if the odds get more favorable for the dog...that cosme rivera fight sticks in my memory...
i`m sure julio`s improved quite a bit since....
smith ain`t bad,though..
i kid....if this were a 12`er,i`d take the +175 and hope for the best....
it`s not till tomorrow,so,i`ll wait and see if the odds get more favorable for the dog...that cosme rivera fight sticks in my memory...
i`m sure julio`s improved quite a bit since....
smith ain`t bad,though..
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Julio isn't a monster, but I think Smith is a notch below this level. -175 would be nicer. Hey; an ESPN fight; am I an action junkie? As far as the "sure thing favorite" guy, he will have to expose himself on his on. Perhaps he meant a VERY strong play/opinion with a high probably of success or something of a like nature. He's a big boy; he can handle it.
I am taking Smith here as I think he is a very talented guy who has not lived up to his potential. I was hopeing the odds would be wider.
Good luck.
Good luck.
Absolutely...no problem what-so-ever...
In a previous thread I was supporting my argument for playing parlays as opposed to laying heavy wood. I stated that I used "sure thing favorites" to boost the odds on some of my recent plays. I figured that most already knew there is no such thing as a "sure thing". I've been betting boxing for 6 years so obviously I know there is no such thing as a sure thing.
When I posted that comment, I was referring to the parlay partners I used to set up better odds on the fight in question. In that case, all of the parlays partners I had previously used to get better odds on my favorite...all cashed in...therefore they were all sure thing favorites...for me.
And to say that there are no "sure thing favorites" in boxing is absolutley wrong. DLH was getting the decision over Sturm regardless of what happened in the ring. D.Hopkins was getting the decision over Forbes regardless of what happened in the ring...that's quite obvious. Casamayor was getting the decision over Cruz regardless of what happened in the ring...that's obvious as well. Dzinziruk lost his fight this past weekend, but the promotion of the fight made sure Dzin didn't lose...
If those aren't "sure things"...I don't know what is...
gl bl
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"Who knew they were sure things prior to the fights?. Are you saying that after Santa Cruz easily took 8 of 12 rounds from Casamayor, that you knew the decision was going to Casa prior to the announcement. Not sure why I remember this, probably because it was a great pick that should have cashed, but didn't you take Santa Cruz? When these sure thing favorites come along that are obvious as you say, just let us all know so we can all cash. Maybe they seem obvious after the fight is over."
I was on the fence for a few days but now I'm leaning towards Julio. I was thinking that Smith is one of these fighters that has a mental issue when stepping up and just freezes. We see this quite a bit in talented fighters...zab, guinn, Rocky Juarez, A harrison to name a few. To me it seems like these type of fighters simply don't have the mental fortitude to deal with adversity and step up their game when they have to. Betting on these kind of fighters can be incredibly frustrating. You know and feel they have it in them to excel but they just can't pull the trigger and go for it. "The Man" is on Julio and for the same reasons I am. I don't have a bundle but I like the way Julio has come back from his loss to quintana. He was 21 then and did have tough fight w/Rivera but appears to be very strong @154. He totally dominated bundridge who went on to beat Ouma. Of course I could be wrong but I'm taking Julio for med/lrge play -215. The line is moving after Evans pick.
smith is walking around at +230 at 5 dimes,so,i`m in on the dog....
i think that`s more than reasonable....won`t cost much to have a little action...
i`m probably wrong,but,the price is right....
i think that`s more than reasonable....won`t cost much to have a little action...
i`m probably wrong,but,the price is right....
Romi i agree with you on Smith talented but very frustrating to bet on because he prefers to do nothing than to take his chances. He is a head case for sure did you watch the contender series with him ?
Evan must feel very strong about this one. He never plays -220 and very big play. He also likes the under.
I take Julio inside for 488. That looks damn nice to me.
Evan must feel very strong about this one. He never plays -220 and very big play. He also likes the under.
I take Julio inside for 488. That looks damn nice to me.
I have added more on Ishe now that he is at +240. I think there is no way Julio stops him, he is too slick. I just hope he is active tonight.
inside the distance with julio is +365?......nice hedge...even if both blow,not a bad beat..
what do you do with a guy like smith?...just a little more effort offensively...one more round in the bank and he escapes with a majority draw....
he lacks something...it`s ashamed...he was making julio miss all night...
he lacks something...it`s ashamed...he was making julio miss all night...
This situation is a microcosm of this forum (and yes we all have vocabularies around here, but not all of us feel the need to use unnecessary words when talking about boxing amongst gambling degenerates...lol). Anyway, this is just a typical example of what always happens around here. Punchy past posts on a regular basis and rarely posts a play in time to help out the rest of us, and yet I'm the only one calling bullsh!t. On the other hand, I've done nothing but post winners and answer questions (before the fights happen) for the last 6 years, and what do I get in return...
frankie calling me out for using the phrase "sure thing favorites"...even though I was only referring to previous bets that had already cashed...all of them. I already posted that my wording was an exageration and that everyone knows there's no such thing as a sure thing. When I brought up the other fights that were "sure thing favorites" I was mearly making the point that sometimes the outcome of a fight is predetermined by the promotion. Hell no I didn't know ahead of time, but it sure was obvious afterward. And trust me, someone knew about every one of those fixes...and for those insiders, it was definitly a "sure thing favorite"...
Anyone else getting tired of me posting winners and feel the need to nit-pik every little thing I post to make themselves feel better about their inferiority complex?
Step up fellas, I'm locked and loaded, better bring your A-game
gl bl
Sure
Thing!!
Box i had my first MMA fight tonight. I have been training hard. I choke this guy out in the second round. http://i76.photobucket.com/albums/j34/dirtydy2/ET.jpg
Locked and Loaded?
Tired of you posting winners... like Ishe Smith this week and the Urango over last week? Box- your a miserable bloke, just another decent boxing capper that posts all his numbers and wants so bad to be the forum king and that's fine, your the madjacks boxing forum king- congrats with a bunch of dudes you'll never meet. I think the last play I posted was that Favela-Martinez over that you ended up jumping up and down screaming to Romi that you posted it first....what a bitch. I loved what a casual observer of the forum came up with- "Oh , Though Great Box Locks"
put the "a" game away,muchacho...
to be honest,i never had one clue as to who the "sure thing" person was when this mini shit storm hit the bladed cooling device....
i hope you aren`t pissed at me,as i honestly thought frankie was referring to ME regarding my "more certain" comment when some of us were discussing why folks "parlayed"......
whatever...obviously i don`t have enough fingers and toes to plug up this dike, and the water's rising higher and higher on the other side,so i`ll bow out and file this mess under "failure to communicate"....
and frankie...stop it!...
lol
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Box i had my first MMA fight tonight. I have been training hard. I choke this guy out in the second round. http://i76.photobucket.com/albums/j34/dirtydy2/ET.jpg[/QUOTE]
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I almost spit out my coffee when I saw that pic. That is fcking hysterical.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I almost spit out my coffee when I saw that pic. That is fcking hysterical.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I almost spit out my coffee when I saw that pic. That is fcking hysterical.[/QUOTE]
is he a "pencil necked geek" or does he just have a concave chest?.....
whoa!....
i think he`s related to " inflated scrotum guy"...
OK weasel; as we go back I'll heed your advice and behave. I'll be good from now on UNLESS A comment is posted that is more than I can bear!
