Well, I ran with the 6.5 UNDER-135. I know, I know! 6.5 ain't a heck of a lot of rounds. Especially if Pavlik, who I feel will win, takes it slow and careful. The thing of it is, this Lockett fella has fought scrubs. What is he going to due when he gets in VERY tough? This is VERY tough. I think Pavlik has killer instinct. Such a fighter is cautious BUT will take a guy out when it's thrown in his face. I think Pavlik will realize he CAN whack this guy and will take that route. I hope Lockett pisses Pavlik off. That will help.
Boxing; 6/07/2008; Pavlik-Lockett; Atlantic City-HBO
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
Frank,
I stopped by this morning to see if there were any posts about Meza Clay, and the line moves. Was there more than just the normal movement on the Under, on a low level interest bout on Telefutura?
I banged it at -120, an hour later I go to buy another piece and see it's up by 25 cents at three different on-line;, by midafternoon I saw -175. Don't know how high it ended up.
I know I banged it, and passed it to a couple guys, but after watching what transpired in the ring, I was thinking . . .
(Maybe it's a side effect of current reading material - "Black Mass" on the FBI's cover-up for the Irish gangs in the Southie part of Boston during the 80's and 90's, and their "influence" on the ponies.)
I stopped by this morning to see if there were any posts about Meza Clay, and the line moves. Was there more than just the normal movement on the Under, on a low level interest bout on Telefutura?
I banged it at -120, an hour later I go to buy another piece and see it's up by 25 cents at three different on-line;, by midafternoon I saw -175. Don't know how high it ended up.
I know I banged it, and passed it to a couple guys, but after watching what transpired in the ring, I was thinking . . .
(Maybe it's a side effect of current reading material - "Black Mass" on the FBI's cover-up for the Irish gangs in the Southie part of Boston during the 80's and 90's, and their "influence" on the ponies.)
Wasn't a whole lot of noise on that. It blew right past me. One or two guys here had it I think. Very nicely done though. I was watching a LONG video of Pavlik's sparring session. Seems he warms up around 3 rounds. When his opponent tries to get cute, he becomes VERY agressive and sets down on his punches and throws his power shots. They have a cutout in the gym of Lockett saying "he has been hit before, and with my power I think I can KO him". If he tries, he does it or gets put to sleep. I hope he tries.
"Wasn't a whole lot of noise on that. It blew right past me. "
That is my point, I think it was overlooked by many people.
This was not a highly anticipated bout.
It was not a highly publicized bout.
It was a bout in which most people have never heard of either fighter.
It wasn?t even the Friday Nighter on ESPN.
And yet, the line was relatively sky rocketing - someone was pounding the round prop. Many major bouts do not see movements such as this.
Combined with the quick stoppage, I just thought it smelled a bit fishy. Was Tim Donaghy the 3rd man in the ring?
The stoppage was correct, technically, you have to rise before the man says ?ten? but it was obvious Lizarraga was ready to go at 4 or 5 and was just taking full advantage of the count to offset the effects of the body blow.
I took it becuz 76% of Lizzaraga fights end by KO,70% of Clay's by KO;
the bout was at 128 and CLAY usually fights in the mid-130's while Lizarraga is a normally around 127.
As long as the weight was lost gradually, and I heard it was, stamina would not be a factor.
Clay was in front of hometown fans AND all of Lizarraga losses had been KO defeats - Meza Clay was a better than 10-1 fav.
I hit the Under early, and went to hit it again when I saw the lines moves and thought it was a little unusual. Again, maybe just me cuz I'm reading Black Mass - these guys were fixin races up and down the east coast, including Jersey tracks I frequented when I was back East. They were paying off jockeys and then hitting every outlet they could to get action - casinos, OTB's and local bookies.
I haven't bought anything on Pavlik's bout yet, if I do I'll post it in here before the bout.
Thanks for taking time to reply,
Sonny
That is my point, I think it was overlooked by many people.
This was not a highly anticipated bout.
It was not a highly publicized bout.
It was a bout in which most people have never heard of either fighter.
It wasn?t even the Friday Nighter on ESPN.
And yet, the line was relatively sky rocketing - someone was pounding the round prop. Many major bouts do not see movements such as this.
Combined with the quick stoppage, I just thought it smelled a bit fishy. Was Tim Donaghy the 3rd man in the ring?
The stoppage was correct, technically, you have to rise before the man says ?ten? but it was obvious Lizarraga was ready to go at 4 or 5 and was just taking full advantage of the count to offset the effects of the body blow.
I took it becuz 76% of Lizzaraga fights end by KO,70% of Clay's by KO;
the bout was at 128 and CLAY usually fights in the mid-130's while Lizarraga is a normally around 127.
As long as the weight was lost gradually, and I heard it was, stamina would not be a factor.
Clay was in front of hometown fans AND all of Lizarraga losses had been KO defeats - Meza Clay was a better than 10-1 fav.
I hit the Under early, and went to hit it again when I saw the lines moves and thought it was a little unusual. Again, maybe just me cuz I'm reading Black Mass - these guys were fixin races up and down the east coast, including Jersey tracks I frequented when I was back East. They were paying off jockeys and then hitting every outlet they could to get action - casinos, OTB's and local bookies.
I haven't bought anything on Pavlik's bout yet, if I do I'll post it in here before the bout.
Thanks for taking time to reply,
Sonny
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Parlay-prop
Parlay-prop
What I did was take Pavlik to win in round 6(ko) +850 with Williams/Quintana OVER 10.5. Did it again with Pavlik round 7(+1100). Both pay around 14-1 or so. Lots of guys seem to be on the over with Will/Quint. I may use Pavlik in rounds 7-9+400 with something yet to be determined. Did you guys see the mean, scary look on Lockett's face at the weigh-in? I think he is trying to out ugly Pavlik and scare him to death. Anyway, I feel this is a mis-match due to Lockett's reliance on padding his record with lollipops.
Parlay-prop
What I did was take Pavlik to win in round 6(ko) +850 with Williams/Quintana OVER 10.5. Did it again with Pavlik round 7(+1100). Both pay around 14-1 or so. Lots of guys seem to be on the over with Will/Quint. I may use Pavlik in rounds 7-9+400 with something yet to be determined. Did you guys see the mean, scary look on Lockett's face at the weigh-in? I think he is trying to out ugly Pavlik and scare him to death. Anyway, I feel this is a mis-match due to Lockett's reliance on padding his record with lollipops.
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heres a few lockett rounds vs a russian who was 12-6....at jr middle....back in 2002...
lockett...pros/sets down on his punches...throws nice straight punches and really tries to set down on his left hook...decent stand up european fighter with some pop..
cons/..no head movement..likes to mix it up...doesn`t appear to like going backwards...face breaks up quickly...eats right hands......looks naturally smaller than pavlik.... roughly 4 inch height disadvantage..hasn`t been in many real meaningful fights...i don`t see any outside wales other than a fight in manchester vs kevin kelly(not that kevin kelly) back in 2002...
o.k....this guy`s an aggressive fighter...a puncher....he comes to fight...unless pavlik has money on the "over" or gets off to a ridiculously slow start and coasts,i don`t see this going 7....
he should break lockett up fairly quickly....i believe lockett`s only shot is to jump on pavlik...he can punch a little..
hate unders,but,at -140,this is worth a wager,imo...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-DIOL4DL1g
lockett...pros/sets down on his punches...throws nice straight punches and really tries to set down on his left hook...decent stand up european fighter with some pop..
cons/..no head movement..likes to mix it up...doesn`t appear to like going backwards...face breaks up quickly...eats right hands......looks naturally smaller than pavlik.... roughly 4 inch height disadvantage..hasn`t been in many real meaningful fights...i don`t see any outside wales other than a fight in manchester vs kevin kelly(not that kevin kelly) back in 2002...
o.k....this guy`s an aggressive fighter...a puncher....he comes to fight...unless pavlik has money on the "over" or gets off to a ridiculously slow start and coasts,i don`t see this going 7....
he should break lockett up fairly quickly....i believe lockett`s only shot is to jump on pavlik...he can punch a little..
hate unders,but,at -140,this is worth a wager,imo...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-DIOL4DL1g
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what say we wind this f-cking under up and go get a martini?........
a`ight....:yup ...`zackly....
a`ight....:yup ...`zackly....
I have to thank lots of guys for giving me Lopez and Mora. I only post what i personally scope out. I won't say what else I bet as I did'nt post it but thanks to the Lopez/Mora backers!
