Boxing 7/14 - 7/15

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: -0.25 units
1 unit plays: 5-3 -2.45
1/2 unit plays: 52-25 -3.10
Dogs: 34-49 +5.30



7/15

Sidorenko-Kratingdaeenggym Over 11.5 -310...lay .95 to win .30 (winner)

Mosley-Vargas Over 11.5 -163...lay 1.2 to win .75 (loser)


Dogs

Virchis over Vidoz +230...lay .15 to win .35 (winner)

Mosley ahead after 3 rounds -175...lay .45 to win .25 (winner)

Mosley by decision +166...lay .25 to win .40 (loser)

Vargas by decision +315...lay .15 to win .45 (loser)

Mosley-Vargas Draw +2000...lay .1 to win 2.0 (loser)

Mosley in rounds 10-12 +1150...lay .1 to win 1.2 (loser)


Parlays

Wright-Taylor Over 9 -580 / Sturm over Castillejo -1150...lay .80 to win .25 (loser)

Sturm over Castillejo -1150 / Mosley-Vargas Over 6.5 -575...lay .80 to win .25 (loser)

Mosley-Vargas Over 6.5 -650 / Sidorenko-Kratingdaeenggym Over 11.5 -320...lay .50 to win .25 (loser)


gl bl

 

[Spreadking]

your parlay looks like a winner. Sturm is too good. He will outbox Castillejo for the most part.

Close heavyweight match-up. I got the Virchis-Chagaev fight, but haven't watched it. Vidoz is a tough opponent against other white euro-stiffs, but you are on the right side with the dog money.

i'll probably wait for some Sturm props to come out. but I'm sure Sturm by decision will be at -200 or something, you think ?
that sucks. and the over will be high. I will probably stick him on a parlay (by decision) instead of straight up.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good to have you around Spread, always appreciate your opinion

Btw, congrats on the Skelton/Spinks parlay, nice payoff...well done

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

For the record...

As posted in previous threads, the parlay above was originaly a 3 teamer including Diaz over Sim, but that fight was cancelled so the payback is a little short of what I expected.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Mosely-Vargas Over 11.5 -163...lay .8 to win .5


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Mosely-Vargas Over 11.5 -163...lay .4 to win .25

Final play...lay 1.2 to win .75

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m pretty sure they`ll show a replay of the fight sometime this week....

if you guys have the time,watch the 2nd and 3rd rounds......maybe even the 4th...but,i think it was the 2nd or the 3rd...

i`m absolutely sure that the hematoma on vargas` head was caused by a headbutt......but,i think i`m the only one that saw it.....

watch closely.....particularly the 2nd round...it was pretty obvious to me...

not saying that shane didn`t exacerbate the knot....but it was started by a pretty hard headbutt...

btw..the vargas/mosely over can be parred with the jones/ajamu over getting roughly 2 for 1.....

g.l.

 

[MayorgaFan]

I thought the headbutt was in round 1, can't remember for sure though. The swelling was started by a headbutt for sure though and Mosley made it worse by hitting him with a good bit of right hands.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I remember seeing the mouse over Vargas' eye when he came back to the corner after round 1, and they later showed the replay confirming it was headbutt


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

may well have been the first......thanks...

 

[Spreadking]

Mosley/Vargas Over looks like a solid bet

I like Vargas to win this one. Mosley has his dad back, so he will be slow and not throw many punches. Mosley can't really hurt Vargas, except with his head (J/K). Vargas was coming on even when the first fight was stopped.

so i'm going with
some on Vargas to win +150
a little less on Vargas to win by decision +320
and a dab on the draw +2000

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Looks good Spread...the props weren't out yet when I posted the Over last night. I agree that Vargas has a good shot here, I'll write this one up later.

I'm making multiple plays on this fight, already made a few...

Over 11.5 -163 (pinny)

Mosley by decision +150 (sportsbook)

Vargas by decision +300 (bet365)

Draw +2000 (5dimes)


Right now I only recommend the Over and the Draw as pinny still hasn't hung their props and they could offer better #'s on the decisions

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Mosley-Vargas II

Mosley-Vargas II

Mosley's speed early, against Vargas' size and power late...a tale of two fights

I expect this fight to go exactly like the first one, but without the giant hematoma around Vargas' eye. We all know there will be plenty of headbutts in this one, so we have to hope they don't do as much damage this time. Maybe Mosley will get the worst of it, but I dought it.

Anyway, barring any early cuts or swelling, I think Mosley and his quick right hand will dominate the early rounds, while Vargas' size and powed will wear Shane down by the 8th or 9th round and he'll dominate the rest of the fight. The question is, will Mosley win enough rounds early to seal the deal?

I don't expect either guy to go down in this fight, unless Vargas' making weight effects his stamina and he gets exhausted. I don't see Vargas stopping Mosley either, even if he wears Shane down late in the fight, he won't have enough left to finish him off. Shane has a great chin and a ton of heart, he'll go the distance here.

The 3 most important things to remember from the their first fight...

1) As mentioned in this thread, the swelling in the first fight was caused by a headbutt in the first round

2) Despite a huge swelling over Vargas' eye from the beginning of the fight, the scores were 85-86, 85-86, 86-85 going into the 10th round and Vargas was coming on despite the huge handicap.

3) After the fight, Mosley was physically spent and kept talking about how Vargas was pushing him around the ring and that it was time for him to go back to 147. At that time he wanted no part of a rematch with Vargas, but the $$$ talked and here we are.

Mosley is 34...Vargas is 28 and took 2004 off

I'll have more on this later

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Mosley in rounds 10-12 +1150...lay .1 to win 1.2


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Am running with spread on this one.
Shane is always in shape, but I feel Fernando is on a mission. This is what I see as basically a pick-em. Why not take the odds? Parlay Vargas by decision with Baldomir is one thought. Lean toward going the distance but not committed yet.

 

[THE KOD]

Corey Spinks stinks

 

[Spreadking]

I emailed Karmazin's manager and he said that it should have been a draw. but Karmazin and his team are making no excuses. Spinks don't Stink that bad.

 

[amhlilhaus]

Corey Spinks stinks

come on now, that's harsh, after all he painted a 'masterpiece' (his words) :mj07:

 

[Spreadking]

boxlocks always has every angle covered

he is the one who paints masterpieces

poor Cory, he will never get any love

his dance entrance was hotter than anything backstreet boys ever did

 

[badjab]

I think Mosley and his quick right hand will dominate the early rounds, while Vargas' size and powed will wear Shane down by the 8th or 9th round and he'll dominate the rest of the fight.

I agree. I think the best betting options for this fight would probably be on Shane by decision and then some on the draw. Hopefully, this could be hedged a little if they offer live betting -- it's possible Vargas could be +350 or so by the end of round 3.