boxing futures...secondary plays

[gardenweasel]

aside from phillips-lerma,ishii-larios and barr-brewer( to a lesser extent),these are leans and opinions only......my main plays are in my other main"boxing futures" post.....



1)phillips-lerma over 9.5......-300.....a hefty price to pay......just about my limit.....both guys extremely durable......neither what i`d call a big puncher....these are "espn fighters"....guys that are just outside the periphery of top contenders,so they aren`t as expensive to pay,they are seasoned pros and have fought very tough competition on a regular basis...and they always go rounds....this way espn doesn`t have to pay extra for" fill" bouts.....good,dependable pro`s....right outside or at the bottom of the top 10.....

barring a cut or a butt,should go the distance.... opponents fought...

verno phillips- julian jackson....bronco mckart...kassim ouma....santos cardona....gianfranco rosi...silvio branco.....shibata flores....lupe aquino....

michael lerma- wilfrdo rivera.....kassim ouma.....j.c. candelo twice....alex bunema...mauro lucero....jason papillion....raul marquez....alfred ankamah....

no stoppages in the bunch...pretty amazing...you`d expect a cut or butt somewhere in there...

you get the drift...a heavy price....it might even be -320 now...ouch....keep an eye on 5 dimes....sometimes they open up a little light...

a cut or a headbutt....that looks like the only way this doesn`t go the distance....imo....

2)freeman barr-charles brewer under 6.5....-130.....only reason i take a small flyer here is brewer`s history, barr`s record and the reasonable odds.....brewer is known for stalking his opponents and making them fight......brewer`s chin has also always been suspect....

barr`s 3 losses have been by k.o.,or t.k.o in 3,5 and round 8.....he obviously can be hurt by decent punchers....in brewer,he`s probably seeing the biggest puncher he`s ever faced....he was stopped by bert schenk,rito ruvalcaba and some russian named mgertian or something.....ruvalcaba is a good journeyman with pretty decent power and a poor chin himself.....schenk is in many top 10 lists....from denmark....i hear he`s a good fighter....the russian....17-1 w/12 k.o.`s....

everybody else on barr`s record are basically nobody`s.....fluff....


the odds pushed me over.....if barr runs,it could be tough....not a slam dunk....but,given all the facts,i`ll take a small shot....and you never know.....brewer`s chin can be had....and he`s usually reckless...

3a)tye fields-sherman williams under 9.5....-120.......fields is a monster...6`8" or something and 280 lbs.....all muscle......a lefty to boot......a bodybuilder(uhhh ohhh)....

fields.....28-1 w/27 k.o.`s.....unreal....and get this...1 unanimous 5 round decision......one k.o. in rd 3......everything else was a 1st or second round k.o......

a bodybuilder....from what i got from friends that saw him fight,they suspect that fields will have a stamina problem....all that muscle....all that size....being white.....none of his wins,none of his fights for that matter,have been vs anyone even remotely decent.....if he doesn`t get fields out early,it could be a problem....



williams.......23-7-1.....12 k.o.`s....the record`s nothing special.......hell,he`s only 6 foot tall.....but,he`s tough and battle tested against very,very good second tier heavyweights and a couple top 10 guys....

lost decisions to prospect taurus sykes....beat big punching samson pou`ha by maj decision.....decisioned al "ice" cole.....lost a majority decision to obed sullivan.....and he DREW with top 10 heavyweight jameel mccline.....yep,that`s 6`7" tall jameel mccline that stopped michael grant and beat shannon briggs and goofi whitaker....the mccline fight would indicate that williams can be competitive with a good,tall fighter....

this guy`s no pug......he could very well stretch this fight out.....it could be ugly......and what will this behemoth do in a real fight vs a tough opponent?......that`s why i`m also taking williams +118 as a hedge.....
scenario`s....
a)fields is a monster...k.o.`s williams just like the rest....i hit the under...lose my williams bet....no sweat...

b)williams gets out of the first few rounds.....fields feels the heat of fighting a warm body for the first time....having to fight a long grueling bout....may get stopped himself in the middle to late rounds...maybe exhaustion gets him.....2 way hit .....

c)fields somehow manages to survive for 10 rds for the first time in his career and gets a decision.....i get it in the front and back end....don`t even get a wraparound..:nono:.....

this one`s for fun....very small....just for curiosity`s sake....seeing if this big white guy really has anything....should be enjoyable......

if you play it,don`t hurt yourself....it`s for fun....

3b)sherman williams+118.....see above...more b.s....just fun...



4)larios-ishii over 9.5..-120..self explanatory...ishii has been stopped twice in championship bouts.....once in the 12th....and once in the 11th.....vs tough guys yober ortega and nestor garza.....

larios is fairly tall and a slashing puncher....but usually goes deep into his fights....not a big,big puncher....it`s in japan,ishii is 33-3 and yet only 26 yrs old......experienced....and as i said,the 2 late stoppages were vs very tough guys in world title fights....

the odds are reasonable....



5)potpourri.....some bouts i`d like to play......not sure if i will or not...

trujillo/villalta under 8...trujillo coming off his first loss to tough,tough javier jauregui......got pretty cut up....but,trujillo is an excellent boxer-puncher that can get you out of there....villalta has a very good record and can punch....but really isn`t in trujillo`s class....it`s up to trujillo how hard he wants to impress on t.v....i suspect he`ll look to come back strong off the loss.....something is holding me back here....sometimes trujillo just outboxes his opponents...

i`d like to take a flyer on jo`el scott vs ray austin...but,i understand that fletch has a play on austin.....i understand why austin is favored....austin is tall....and durable....not a real big puncher for his size.....scott was a big-time prospect in the mid to late 90`s..... enormous punching power.....disappeared from 96 to 2000(prison?).....came back and signed with s.r. leonard....an inexplicable kayo loss to bum frances royal.....

may play the under.....i wish austin was a bigger puncher.....






bradley-cervera over 9.5 rds.....-135.....waffling a little......bradley was a solid middleweight back in the mid 90`s......took time for a detached retina and something else must have happened....stopped fighting from mid 97 to 99 because of the eye.....had 2 fights vs nobody`s in 99....didn`t fight again until 06/02 vs a horrible journeyman whom he didn`t stop.....

now another year passes,and bradley decides to fight again at 35 yrs old.....vs durable nicholas cervera.....

cervera has a decent record(30-4) but a good deal of that was as a welterweight......he was stopped in his last fight vs jermain taylor in the 4th round(taylor is considered the can`t miss next mdlwt champion)....cervera has gone 12 with tough carl daniels and rafael pineda....

i want to take the over but cervera is not particularly skilled and is very wide with his punches.... but he is durable.....despite the taylor loss....taylor could be something very special

the bradley layoff makes me think there`s no way he can be sharp.....and he`s 35.....he has 20 k.o.`s but doesn`t stop the better fighters on his record....



put this on the shelf....opinions welcome...

i could go on....getting cross eyed.....opinions welcomed....yea or nea.....throw your 2 cents in...tons coming up that aren`t lined yet....these are some of the more recent ones....

whew....g.l.....and make your own decisions...

 

[gardenweasel]

another worth a look

another worth a look

is over 11.5 in the woods/johnson fight on 09/20....

.....johnson is stone cold tough and durable....very hard to stop....has fought a litany of tough guys(eric harding, ottke,daniel judah,heavy handed julio gonzales,derrick harmon,thomas ulrich,syd vanderpool)....

his only stoppage loss was earlier in his career as a middleweight to bernard hopkins(11th round)...

the guy goes rounds....making you lay heavy again(-265)....making you basically go the 12 round distance....it`s in woods` home country of england....

a toughie....but,barring something strange,i`d suspect a decision here...

something to consider....be careful laying big odds...

 

[yak rider]

hmmmm

hmmmm

again gw thanks for all the hard work and the time you put in to help make us all better. not being a great handcapper i will put forth my thoughts and definitely do not want anyone to take what i think as a lock winner. i do pretty well at football and baseball coming up with what i think the lines will be prior to seeing them and i am trying it with boxing as well. some of these thoughts are what i came up with while looking at the fights before seeing the odds.
1. i liked austin when i first looked at the fight. but the number i had it at was not the -245 that it is now. seeing that fletch likes it i might play it but i didn't have it handicapped that pricey. however like wease i might play the under as it is cheap and exactly what i had it at prior to seeing it. doubt i will play either paticularly big.

2. i haven't seen a line so i don't know if the price will chase me away but cintron seems like a winner. probably will be a bit pricey however.

3. i too had trujillo a big favorite before lines but NOT 100-1 (olym) lol thanks but no thanks and not gonna play villalta just because of the odds. a loss is a loss regardless of if i think the play is overpriced. however, i did and do like the under in the fight. can be -130 /8 at oly or -110 7 1/2 at 5 dimes.

4. sorta leaned towards gw's play with phillips but since he is strong on it i am there to

5. brings us to fields. i just have a gut feeling. wouldn't jump on the band wagon if i were you. big, strong, played hoops in college so may not be a complete dud cardiovascularly. i know boxing and hoops are different. i can see the boxing comunity doing all it can to give any advantage to a big white american to face the klit's in the future. anyway the size difference is pretty big. we'll see will probably go in the same way as gw. just for fun and a rooting interest. i'll be rooting for fields. plus it's only -145.


well i gotta go to dentist aaaarrrrgggghhh back later.

be interested to know of other's opinions and feels.

 

[gardenweasel]

5 dimes

5 dimes

has fields at -120.i believe...if you like fields,dat` be da` place.........g.l.

 

[yak rider]

thanks all

thanks all

well thanks to fletch and gw i went 3-0 tonight. i got austin -150 at under 8 rounds . also played a bit on austin to win and went bigger on trujillo's fight under than i was going to after reading the wease's write up. and that is the point. if everyone puts our heads together there's a profit to be had. so again i thank fletch and gw tonight and will go to bed a happy camper.

 

[gardenweasel]

let me be clear

let me be clear

on the fields-williams bout....fields is basically an unknown to me..what i know is what has been relayed to me by some friends......i probably shouldn`t have posted anything on this at all....as i said,it`s not really anything i`d recommend anyone spend money on...just some small(i mean really small)frivelous stuff because of the strange nature of the match-up.....

my posts are a little sketchy sometimes....stick to the actual plays if you are interested....just an fyi for anyone interested....g.l.

 

[gardenweasel]

btw

btw

excellent job yak......i see you are bringing solid opinions to the forum......well done....

if you continue nailing the man,may have to change that moniker to mr.yak or yak-meister general.... ...

keep up the good work.....

p.s....i really have a thing for your sister.......salma hay-"yak".......very nice....

 

[gardenweasel]

have to take a hard look at

have to take a hard look at

barrera-pacquaio under 9.5 rds.....both guys have very,very heavy hands.....barrera seems to be able to break down lefty`s as well as any righty i`ve ever seen.....along with roy jones....but jones isn`t human....

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

(after my eyes have bled)

good luck.

 

[yak rider]

well gw appreciate the kind words but the losses by montiel and quiroz chew up alot of those wins. lol beginning to feel queasy when i see -400 lines etc. lol hmmmm wonder where i heard that before. the flip side however is i just can't make myself play the dog in a fight that i don't think is gonna win just because the favorite is overpriced. a loss is a loss. just proof that NO handicapping is easy. guess that's how come vegas can afford all those lights out there. lol

 

[gardenweasel]

yak

yak

i wasn`t aware that you bet montiel at -400 and change......is that what you are saying??/....if so,why?

as far as dogs are concerned,i see what you are saying....but i look for dogs,for the most part,that have a legit chance to win(duhh,there`s a revelation-lol).....

like rafael marquez vs tim austin...i believe toney was a dog to jirov...from info i got,danny green was a live dog vs markus beyer...but the "germany" factor was even more a factor than i figured(if that`s possible)......

like stevie johnston....he IS or at least WAS better than juan lazcano....is he over the hump?.....that`s the question.....he has a recent win over tough,tough alejandro gonzales....i consider gonzales pretty much right there with lazcano.....a few years ago,better than lazcano....

there are no locks with underdogs.....just some value...based on circumstances....the linesmakers aren`t stupid....

as a matter of fact,i`m finding myself being relegated to playing over/unders more and more because most of the solid favorites are being priced out of my playable range......and the o/u`s are subject to butts,fouls,cuts etc.....some things aren`t always cap-able...

the best advice i ever got was don`t overplay....that`s why i`ll post opinion`s that i just can`t play more for the information than an actual recommendation...

 

[yak rider]

well we appreciate your (and others) opinions even if ya don't or can't play the fight. it hleps me and others make decisions. i agree the fights i have been looking at prior to seeing the lines i often like the favorites and realize they indeed will cost more. however, when the lines do come out the favorites are priced out of the park. (cintron) who is gonna pay 100-1 or more? my word. so it is indeed dogs that can win like too sharp or johnston or mosley etc that offer the best value. along with this is the under/overs but like you said there is the cut/head butt , germany factor lol etc that can give ya heartburn. sure is alot more relaxing to watch a fight and realize your guy only has to have his arm raised at the end to cash in as opposed to sweating out a round to get thru. but that is the exciting part of the wagering business. thanks for the reminder to not overplay or overpay. why montiel? good question. lol bad capping, not trusting myself, turns out just to be a bad play in retrospect. looking forward to alot of good fights and wins coming up though.

 

[gardenweasel]

came out wrong

came out wrong

what i said about montiel...i originally liked johnson at the big odds...then as the fight grew closer,i changed and went with montiel either under 10.5 or by k.o........can`t remeber which(gettin` old)....and just hedged johnson to cover myself....

didn``t mean it like it sounded....i made the wrong decision myself....sometimes,you get so much info,it turns your head and clouds your judgement....

but,it was my decision....and being that hindsight is 20-20,a bad one...:shrug: