Boxing - Over the Hill vs Feral Arslan

[conanthecribber]

Hi,

I took Hill months ago via PTS and straight out. Arslan is technically crap, but enthusiastic. If Hill has a fraction of skill left, then he deals with him easily. Yes, Hill lost to Maske, but hey, Maske came in in top condition and was a great athlete in the first place.

Anyone betting against Hill this weekend?

conan

 

[Zerwas]

Intersting fight!

Arslan really impressed me against Drodz, but Drodz really seemed lost in there and couldnt deal with Arslans pressure mentally and physically.

Firats last fight was very close and a much better indicator of what Arslan is capable of doing...

He's certainly tough as nails and relentless with his pressure, he's not a particularly hard puncher though and he couldnt finish as strongly as I thought he could in his last fight.

His technique is pretty poor he's not that hard to hit, but his high defence might pose some problems for Hills jab.

I expect hill to be in even better shape than he was against Maske, no ringrust, his knee injury should have healed and maybe he believes that a win against Arslan might set up a rematch against Maske.

It's a tough fight!

Hill has always had a good chin and I dont think Arslan can stop him unless hill tires..
hill wont stop Arslan...

I played over 9 rounds at 75% very early and Hill on points at +700.

I expect a competetive fight. If Hill can keep up the pace until the end he definitely has a shot,...
a draw is a possibility too. hill might run out of gas and get stopped in the later rounds, but it's certainly worth a little gamble...

 

[Zerwas]

BTW, nice little pun!

 

[nj]

good analysis zerwas, but its tough to see hill getting the decision in germany, even if he earns it. i took the over bet.

 

[conanthecribber]

Dude, he got the decision in the first fight against Germany's most popular fighter ever in Maske. And that was a crap decision in my books, I had Maske winning the first fight by four rounds. To put it in perspective, Maske's emotional retirement song 'time to say goodbaye' sang by some Opera dude, is the best selling single ever in Germany. That is how popular Maske was, and Hill got the decision.

Geez, this board is all over the Casamayor robbery, and Germany gets the bad rap again.

In my opinion, and this is serious, in the big fights, in the title fights I have only seen one suspect action, and that was Markus Beyer vs Danny Green 1. The referee was put under a lot of pressure to stop that in round 4 and Green was robbed blind in two ways a) the cut was caused by a blow and not a butt and b) the headbutt of Green did not go near the wound and make it worse. All other title fights have been judged cleanyl in my eyes. Ottke's fights included. He was just such a messy sloppy offence fighter, but had the best defence in the sport. Very hard to score his fights.

Now if you are an undercard fighter, that is a whole different story. I've seen some dubious officiating there. But headlienrs, where both parties have to agree to the officials etc, that is mostly clean.

conan

 

[Zerwas]

Well, I think it s a bit far fetched to say there was only one incident of dubious scoring in big fight....

But that being said, it's not so bad as many people make it out to be. There are certainly some instances when the foreign fighter got a very fair chance (Beyer-Sanavia, Maskey-Hill..)

 

[gardenweasel]

and that grass and dandelion eater michel trabant vs jose rivera.....:mj16: ...couldn`t get a home town decision there,could we?......


i had a stench surrounding me for a week( similar to the cloud of filth that surrounds pig pen from "peanuts")after that one.....

it`s no fun living on mountain dew and cheetos for a week........

 

[nj]

Maske/Hill was 11 years ago, I was 14 at the time. From what I understand Hill was 32, held a belt, could be matched with Darius, and Jones had been trying to set up a fight with him. Nationality aside, giving the retiring Maske a decision brings no ROI. By default I lean to the younger, untapped guy in close fights. Look at Morales, Hopkins, Mosley. Despite their names it was clear they weren?t going to get close decisions over future headliners.

Admittedly im going by the books here, you guys follow Euro boxing closer than I do. Hill on pts? fine by me. Is Hill/Maske3 a legit possibility? Ive seen a few American reports, all saying no.

I won?t comment on German robberies since I haven?t seen most of the questionable fights, suffice to say there are questions. Ottke as you mentioned, Donald/Valuev, the 5th round of Abe/Miranda.

 

[conanthecribber]

Hill Maske 3 is no possibility, as much as that hurts Hill. Maske is retired.

Donald/Valuev was damm close. One round either way was reasonable. Nobody dominated. You could've given it either fighter, Valuev got an MD. Ditto for Ruiz. I scored the Donald fight a draw and I think I had Ruiz one pt ahead.

Abraham/Miranda was completely OK. The press job that Warriors did was just disgusting. Abraham was examined by the doc and told, if he quits now then it doesnt go to the cards, it goes to Miranda. So Abraham chose to fight on with a broken jaw. Miranda got frustrated and hit Abraham with at least four low blows, all a full glove widths below the top of Abraham's pants. Not only that, he deliberately tried to headbutt a man with a broken jaw. That is about as low as Mike Tyson biting Holyfields ear. He deserved the points he lost. Without the points it was a draw, but no-one can claim that he didnt desrve any deductions.

Anyhow, you can use the information to your advantage or not. The main event fights are on the level. At least as much as anywhere else. Undercard fights, not good though.

conan

 

[nj]

OK, thanks for the insight. About Abe/Miranda, there were a few early and scathing American reports, but as more people saw the fight, the controversy died down, Abe was accepted as the winner. The only journalist I remember pressing on was Rafael of ESPN, the criticism was the length of the break and whether Abe would have been allowed to continue outside of Germany.

Donald/Valuev drew a lot of heat on forums and columns, this one was really hard on the result and German boxing in general: http://www.thesweetscience.com/boxing-article/2720/nicolay-valuev-next-heavyweight-champion/

We?re getting off topic, but you can see where the perception of corruption in Germany originates for the casual Euro boxing fan.

 

[conanthecribber]

Oh I know where you're coming from and I dont take it personally. I'm not even German, I'm Australian, although I live over here. The problem really started with Sven Ottke. He had such an unconventional style. He would stand on the outside and it was impossible to hit him. I've seen rounds where something like two jabs would land from 100+ punches thrown. Incredible defence. The only problem was, he had such crappy offence. He would charge in with a lightening fast but ineffective left hook, land a grazing blow, hug, then jump out of range again. OK, he scored a clean punch, but it had no effect. And he would do that 5 or 10 times a round, whilst his opponent would land nothing. So he would eke out very boring and controversal wins. Controversal, because the other guy would do all the work and Ottke would steal the win.

A lot of the other things were close recently, mostly because German trainers put a lot of emphasis on building up a pts lead and not going for the KO. Abraham is a welcome exception to this. But the style of trainers Ulli Wegner and Fritz Sdunek is to get a big lead early and dont lose it by showboating or getting cocky.

cheers

conan

 

[nj]

i ended up taking a few on this one:

parlay over with mayweather - medium
parlay hill with mayweather - small
over straight - small
hill pts - medium

i forgot about it, but last week i parlayed arslan with erdie wont go distance micro. bleh.

any over is a win, hill pts is a big win. arslan knockout with erdei distance is worst case.

looks like we're all on the same side today. good luck guys!

 

[conanthecribber]

Hill's price is dropping like a stone. He's down from 5.5 outright to 3.8. Pakistan is still looking ok too. Looking forward to tonight.