Boxing; Pac man-Larios 07/02/2006

frank s.

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Larios is moving up 2 weight classes from super bantam-120lbs. to super feather-130lbs.? At their respective sizes, this seems crazy. Ten pounds to a 300lb guy is a joke. Ten pounds to a 120lb guy is huge. Word is Larios is not just an opponent, BUT the move is considerable, to say the least. My only ? is not IF Manny will win, but WHEN. Is 8.5 under the play? If Pac-man can find this guy, I say he busts him up. And Larios gets TKO'd his last time out? Is there something weird about this?
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
and the venue....very big.....

i went big(very big for me).......and i couldn`t stand it...even though i really like manny here...

$460 to win $100...i got cold feet...because of reported mangerial problems.....and as franks said,larios is dangerous....

so,i bet $50 back to win $300 on larios...(6-1 for the novices in the crowd)....

i halved my potential winnings...but,i covered my ass for 300 simolians....

in retrospect,laying -460 was to rich for my blood...

worst case is i lose $160....a shitpot load more amenable to me that than losing $460!.....

the difference between winning $50 or $100 isn`t worth the sweat....

a smidge on the under does look like fun....wish i knew what larios planned to do....

the crowd here should be huge...

g.l.
 

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boxlox23
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Don't have much time right now, but...

Remember Pac is fighting way above his natural weight also, should be at 126 imo


Larios has only been stopped once and that was the first Vasquez fight back in '97

The Sanchez stoppage in '98 and the Vasquez stoppage last year were both on cuts.

After being stopped for the first time, he redeemed himself by going 12 with Vasquez in '02 and actually stopped Vas in the last round.

The last fight with Vasquez was just getting started when a huge cut opened up on Larios forcing the stoppage. Yes, Larios got caught with a goog shot in the first round, but he got up easily and was starting to land regularly when it was called.


If you think Pac will get him eventualy...

I would take Pacman inside distance before I played him by ko,tko,dq. These guys both cut easily and Pacman's stlye caused frequent headbutts. It wouldn't surprise me if this ends in a technical decision. And I would play Pac inside distance -220 before I'd play the Under 8.5 -170.


Gotta go right now, I'll be back later with the rest of my thoughts

gl bl
 

gardenweasel

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""Don't have much time right now, but...

Remember Pac is fighting way above his natural weight also, should be at 126 imo


Larios has only been stopped once and that was the first Vasquez fight back in '97

The Sanchez stoppage in '98 and the Vasquez stoppage last year were both on cuts.

After being stopped for the first time, he redeemed himself by going 12 with Vasquez in '02 and actually stopped Vas in the last round.

The last fight with Vasquez was just getting started when a huge cut opened up on Larios forcing the stoppage. Yes, Larios got caught with a goog shot in the first round, but he got up easily and was starting to land regularly when it was called.""

i agree that larios is tough..and i`m not to crazy about the idea that it looks like manny`s looking past larios to the rubber match with morales......very stupid thing to do...

but,manny has been at super feather for 3 championship fights in a row....and fought both barrera and marquez at feather...

barrera,morales,marquez...not bad...


he`s solid at the weight...larios has never gone above super bantam.... larios is roughly the same height as morales...and i doubt he`s as strong...he`s come off three fights in a row vs taller mexicans....i don`t think the style will be a problem....

and i sort of remember vasquez looking much stronger physically than larios in the last fight...maybe my memory`s fading....


remember...freddie roach had an old,smallish wayne mccullough in with larios twice...he knows larios.....he still thinks the way to beat larios is to back him up....mccullough wasn`t strong enough...or young enough.....pacquaio is.....actually,he was in jorrin`s corner when larios stopped him.....

0-3 vs larios.....but,none of those guys could punch...

larios tries to overwhelm guys...this will be the strongest guy he`s ever been in with....he needs to throw that long,straight(has to be right down the pike) right early and often...

iit`s not a bag shot...but,larios will have a very hard time winning in the phillipines...certainly winning by decision....

i`m not encouraging anyone to lay the big odds...particularly now that it`s in the -8 or 900 range....way to high...

the inside the distance prop looks like the better way to go...i agree...

looking forward to hearing the rest of your take...
 
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Spreadking

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Larios fought 2 non-title 126 pound matches during summer 2004. He did not look that great. Maybe he was just a little fatter and didn't take those serious. I am hoping Larios had molded his body to at least a solid 126 pounds, training hard for this fight.
I looked at the odds, and everything is slanted towards a Pacman knock out. The odds for pac or larios winning a decision are high. So I bet the over on the rounds. Larios has always looked good in his title fights. He looked bad in those non-title matches. If he gets caught early and hurt which I think he will, it will be tough for him to survive. He has the championship experience to last rounds though. I think Pac will be in the same kind of shape he was for Velazquez.
 

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boxlox23
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As mentioned in franks' Cazares thread, my intention is not to criticize anyone's opinion or talk them out of their plays. I just sometimes take the other side of the popular opinion in an arguement in attempt to get everything out on the table. So my original post in this thread was for informational purposes only.

In this case...

I think there's a good chance Pac will get to Larios eventually, could very possibly stop him on cuts...if not with power. However, I'm not positive about it at all. Given the information I posted above, it wouldn't surprise me if this went the distance, esp if the Pac rumors are true. So as of right now, I'm staying away from the Under and the Pac by ko props...both are too juicy imo.

Like gw said, Pac has been priced out of the market with -700 being the lowest I can find. I would consider parlaying him with something, but those books are up around -900 so even the parlay value is gone imo. GW's in the drivers seat here having got Pac early at -460, lots of options now.


gl bl
 

frank s.

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I'm now leaning toward the over. Seems Larios wants this bad, only caveat here is cuts.
 

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boxlox23
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Pacquiao's weight

Pacquiao's weight

I agree that Pac is solid at 130, but he's still fighting above his natural weight, could easily make 126 imo

Pac looked small against Barrera and looked even smaller against Morales. Yes, he has that Phillipino body structure that makes his legs much thicker than his upper body, and he's obviously shorter. But I still think his frame is much smaller than the guys he's been fighting at 126 and esp 130.

Pac weighed 120 in '03...weighed 112 in '99...weighed 106 in '95

Thats a pretty small frame for 130 lbs, but like gw said, he's solid at that weight. Definitly a p4p phenom, top 3 for sure on my list

gl bl
 

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boxlox23
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gardenweasel said:
a smidge on the under does look like fun....wish i knew what larios planned to do....


Ask and you shall receive...


By Sal Acevedo Jr.
FightBeat.com Staff Writer

With nothing to loose and so much to gain, former WBC super bantamweight champion Oscar ?Chololo? Larios will square off against Manny ?Pacman? Pacquiao, one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world today.

He will do so in the backyard of the Filipino superstar.

The Mexican brawler claims to have found the formula to defeat Pacquiao this weekend at the Araneta Coliseum in Manila, Philippines. ?I have found the only way to beat Pacquiao. Everyone will see this on Saturday?.

Oscar feels Manny is taking him lightly, ?I heard that Pacquiao and Freddie Roach have been out drinking and partying lately when they should be preparing for me. I?ve been training in Japan for an entire month. I?m taking this fight very seriously?.

Larios? advisor, Rafael Mendoza attended many of the sparring sessions in Japan including the one with WBC bantamweight champion Hozumi Hasegawa. ?Larios has been training with such fervor and passion that he hurt Hasegawa badly. Because of this, Hasegawa had to cancel his scheduled title defense against Genaro Garcia?.

Mendoza said Larios will have to take risks being aggressive knowing there is no other way to fight the dangerous Pacquiao. ?Oscar will come out to get a knock out or get knocked out. He knows no other way. We know it?s an almost impossible mission. However, we are aware that Pacquiao can?t fight when pressured. Larios is training to do this and knows he will have to take a chance?.

At the press conference, Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach assured Larios won?t go past six rounds. But even in a seemingly lopsided match up nothing is guaranteed until the bell rings. Highly probably however, is the feeling that this one won?t go the distance.
 

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boxlox23
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gardenweasel said:
remember...freddie roach had an old,smallish wayne mccullough in with larios twice...he knows larios.....he still thinks the way to beat larios is to back him up....mccullough wasn`t strong enough...or young enough.....pacquaio is.....



Sounds like both of these guys will be coming forward all night long. When you consider the styles involved here, Pac's power, and the fact that both guys cut easily...its hard to imagine this fight going the distance.

Still thinking on this one

gl bl
 

frank s.

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Larios inside+1300; Larios-Pac-draw+3100. VERY small plays. Cheap thrills only here. :shrug:
 
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