Boxing parlay; $ line/round prop; 10/11-10/18 2008
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
hm. Im not confident in either straight, and a parlay to me is very risky. It sounds like you're confident though, good luck with it.
Peter/Vitali should end up a slug fest in the mid-rounds, Peter's not there to win a decision and will leave himself open with winging punches. Vitali is coming off a huge layoff and a myriad of injuries. Lower back injuries are the worst to have for a puncher, it's difficult to get full rotation in your shots, and it cramps up easily. His movement could be null by the later rounds, expect a robotic performance from him. I see both guys wanting to end it early, one b/c of location, the other b/c of worsening injuries. Im actually going to play the under.
imo, a big factors in the Pavlik fight that's being ignored is the extra 10lbs. Pavlik did not carry the same murderous power at 166 than he did at 160, now hes 170lbs against a guy that's difficult to hit clean, let alone knock out. His power won't be the same, and he won't connect on Hop like he did vs Miranda and JT. I already have a small play on Hop +325, and am playing Pavlik PTS at even money. Pavlik should win this based on workrate alone, but he's a very simple fighter, facing an incredibly complex one. I see a flash KD. And I think the extra weight will be enough to decrease his power to the point where Hop feels comfortable taking risks to counter.
Peter/Vitali should end up a slug fest in the mid-rounds, Peter's not there to win a decision and will leave himself open with winging punches. Vitali is coming off a huge layoff and a myriad of injuries. Lower back injuries are the worst to have for a puncher, it's difficult to get full rotation in your shots, and it cramps up easily. His movement could be null by the later rounds, expect a robotic performance from him. I see both guys wanting to end it early, one b/c of location, the other b/c of worsening injuries. Im actually going to play the under.
imo, a big factors in the Pavlik fight that's being ignored is the extra 10lbs. Pavlik did not carry the same murderous power at 166 than he did at 160, now hes 170lbs against a guy that's difficult to hit clean, let alone knock out. His power won't be the same, and he won't connect on Hop like he did vs Miranda and JT. I already have a small play on Hop +325, and am playing Pavlik PTS at even money. Pavlik should win this based on workrate alone, but he's a very simple fighter, facing an incredibly complex one. I see a flash KD. And I think the extra weight will be enough to decrease his power to the point where Hop feels comfortable taking risks to counter.
i know i said this vs calzaghe(and was wrong/rap my knuckles with a clue stick),but,i`m not entirely sure about pavlik here.....still,bernard looked horrible late vs calzaghe....
the one i`m really looking at is jermain taylor vs jeff lacy....
lacy`s tickling +500..thats high.........and i`m watching...a win over taylor resurrects lacy from the dead....
if ever there was a place to take a stand...to fight like your very life depends on it,this is it for lacy....
he absolutely has to mug taylor..he can`t follow him around the ring like he did calzaghe......he can`t let taylor keep distance....
he has to lay it on the line...
if the odds make 5-1,i`ll have to do it...
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ive actually been looking forward to taylor as a great parlay-ender. i agree the line is becoming inflated though, I believe i saw -700 at one point, at which point it really has no value.
but i dont see lacy winning, and i wouldnt bet it, even at +500. maybe a ko prop for a lucky swing. as i said prior to the mendoza fight, these men are professional athletes, and will fight for money even if they shouldnt be. pride is nice, sure, but the money is better. lacy may well still be seriously injured and unable to perform, and know this is about a payday. the mendoza fight was a stand too - if he didnt win that fight there wouldnt BE a taylor fight - and yet he looked terrible.
i see your angle gardenweasel, i just dont know if motivation is good enough to overcome a gulf in class.
edit - i saw great value in the under 10.5 +180, but the bout was about 3 months away, no way im keeping that $ tied up. one site has taylor pts -150, hopefully we can catch taylor inside +150 to +200. that imo is the likely outcome.
after watching the hop/calzaghe fight a second time on mute, i gave the fight to Hop. I think Pavlik wont bring the same volume of punches, so Hop can be even more conservative with his punch output, and retain more late stamina. Pavlik is also easier to clinch and control the distance than Calzaghe was, which means exchanging on Hop's terms.
but i dont see lacy winning, and i wouldnt bet it, even at +500. maybe a ko prop for a lucky swing. as i said prior to the mendoza fight, these men are professional athletes, and will fight for money even if they shouldnt be. pride is nice, sure, but the money is better. lacy may well still be seriously injured and unable to perform, and know this is about a payday. the mendoza fight was a stand too - if he didnt win that fight there wouldnt BE a taylor fight - and yet he looked terrible.
i see your angle gardenweasel, i just dont know if motivation is good enough to overcome a gulf in class.
edit - i saw great value in the under 10.5 +180, but the bout was about 3 months away, no way im keeping that $ tied up. one site has taylor pts -150, hopefully we can catch taylor inside +150 to +200. that imo is the likely outcome.
after watching the hop/calzaghe fight a second time on mute, i gave the fight to Hop. I think Pavlik wont bring the same volume of punches, so Hop can be even more conservative with his punch output, and retain more late stamina. Pavlik is also easier to clinch and control the distance than Calzaghe was, which means exchanging on Hop's terms.
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i agree that lacy`s done little lately to engender much confidence....
i don`t see this in the same way i saw guillermo jones(as a dog worth opening the wallet)...
this is more of a "potshot"...a guy with a puncher`s chance at big odds....
if he pulled the upset and i didn`t at least touch the 5-1,i`d be upset with myself....
odds just seem exorbitant to me......
i don`t see this in the same way i saw guillermo jones(as a dog worth opening the wallet)...
this is more of a "potshot"...a guy with a puncher`s chance at big odds....
if he pulled the upset and i didn`t at least touch the 5-1,i`d be upset with myself....
odds just seem exorbitant to me......
I think Jeff Lacy has slipped drastically and is just not a good fighter at this point. Pavlik is the only guy Hopkins hasn't bad mouthed and seems to respect him; I think because he doesn't want Kelly to beat him up badly. I see Klits and Peter as as a grab ass affair all nite. The older Klits will probably hang on for dear life/not throw a punch and win a UD in the Fatherland. Or they may let Peter win IF he plays nice and doesn't embarrass the good little Nazi. Either way this one stinks to high heaven.
I have the Vitali under at 160 and i like it.
Vitali has the killer instinct he wants to knock his opponent out. His jab is nowhere near the level of his little brother. Vitali is all about power right hand everthing else is set up.
Sam Peter is marching forward and Vitali will stand his ground fire that right hand right through the middle. I believe this to be fireworks from the get go.
Sam on cuts or injury or lucky shot or Vitali via KO.
Wlad fought scared against Sam and didnt really fully commit to the right hand, Vitali will.
I believe alot of people mix the brother up alttle or assume they are simular in fighting style, but they are very different kind of fighters. Bettingwise this is good news.
Vitali has the killer instinct he wants to knock his opponent out. His jab is nowhere near the level of his little brother. Vitali is all about power right hand everthing else is set up.
Sam Peter is marching forward and Vitali will stand his ground fire that right hand right through the middle. I believe this to be fireworks from the get go.
Sam on cuts or injury or lucky shot or Vitali via KO.
Wlad fought scared against Sam and didnt really fully commit to the right hand, Vitali will.
I believe alot of people mix the brother up alttle or assume they are simular in fighting style, but they are very different kind of fighters. Bettingwise this is good news.
i`ve always been more of a vitali guy than a wladimir guy...
i like vitali`s heart....i thought he gave lewis a fit...and then whacked corrie sanders/kirk johnson and danny williams in succession....
BUT.......IT`S BEEN 4 YEARS......
it`s just crazy for him to dace peter in his first fight back...
i don`t think that`s smart...
i like vitali`s heart....i thought he gave lewis a fit...and then whacked corrie sanders/kirk johnson and danny williams in succession....
BUT.......IT`S BEEN 4 YEARS......
it`s just crazy for him to dace peter in his first fight back...
i don`t think that`s smart...
I think you may get some hecklers for that statement, given that he was well ahead of Byrd with a few rounds to go and quit. Thus the nickname Quitali . Not from me, but Vitali gets a bad rap for that.
vitali "quit" while comfortably ahead(5/5 and 7 points in the 9th round) vs a guy that couldn`t punch his way out of a paper bag.....
he was in no danger of being hurt by byrd....byrd couldn`t hurt me...
he had some injuries before he retired...and as far as i know,they forced his retirement....so he`s a quitter?...
so, because the guy sustained a shoulder injury and couldn`t continue in one fight in his entire career,that makes him a quitter?...i had a shoulder injury and i couldn`t button a shirt..i recall seeing josh barnett "quit" vs crocop because of a shoulder injury.....a fight that he was dominating....i saw a guy in a fight not all that long ago that had to "quit" because in a clinch,his opponent yanked his shoulder and they had to stop the fight...don`t recall the name,but i don`t recall thinking that guy was a quitter..
maybe in the minds of a few disgruntled gamblers and boxing scribes with a bone to pick...
after watching the lewis fight,i find it hard to question the guy`s heart..and if i recall,he asked lewis for a rematch,but lewis retired....
.i always thought he,along with lewis, were the dominating heavyweights of their time(granted,the weight class was weak)......and their fight was very close if not for the severe cut....
i really think that disparaging the guy because of the byrd fight is ridiculous..nobody knows how bad that shoulder was...other than klitschko...and there was no other inicidences of him giving less than 100%...
not saying this about you,but i always felt that that was a cheapshot...
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not a shot at you,punchmaster...i just thought that the knock on klitschko was unfair...or at the very least,put to rest with the lewis fight...
