OUTRIGHTS:
David Duval(125/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - It's a simple truth that more than any other source, my best angles come from nuggets gleaned while I'm watching telecasts. Foremost among my takes from watching the Sony telecast on Friday was David Duval impressing with a look of trust in his swing that appeared even more ingrained than I was anticipating on the heels of his recent play. My first looks at the lines on both Saturday and Sunday morning were for shots to play Duval, preferrably at last year's prices, but nothing at all was offered, or I would have played him both days. Of course there are still issues to confront, but at this moment, Duval is nothing close to lost in the wilderness; in fact, unless his back is a mess, he has to be quietly energized, which is the purest and best kind of mindset . . . Even while Duval was lost in a downward spiral, he was capable of amazing stretches with his short game. I would have preferred a different format on one familiar and favorable course, or a somewhat different draw, but you can't have everything, and maybe this week actually provides a favorable mix.
Ben Crane(33/1) e.w @ Bet365
- - I'll let Dave Tindall's always superior write up from bettingzone present the angles supporting this play at 50/1: "Crane, just about the slowest player on Tour, certainly won't mind the crawling pace of the Pro-Am format and showed that two years ago here when he came fifth . . . He's been a vastly improved player over the last couple of years and we're only getting 50s due to his flop in the season-opening Mercedes . . . But, if he can put that behind him, Crane has the game to flourish here . . . He makes bundles of putts, is a fine bunker player and his wayward hitting off the tee shouldn't hurt him . . . Crane grew up in rainy Oregon so used to come to these courses to work on his game. And with his in-laws living nearby he also's spent numerous hours here in the off-season preparing for the year ahead . . . That extra course knowledge is sure to stand him in good stead and the 50s looks a price worth snapping up."
Jerry Kelly(33/1) e.w @ 5dimes
- - Trailing behind the noted telecasts when it comes to my richest source for information and angles, the short list for second fiddle definitely includes: (a) player's tracking according to or at variance from my personal expectations, especially when the accord or variance can be pinned to a hint of a reason; and (b) mornings and afternoons spent tracking names on live scoring, when trends you like and don't like often manifest themselves again and again . . . Anywho, I had Kelly at 80/1 last week, and I loved his take that the 66/1 odds on him were a joke, but I also know from my tracking that he wasn't hitting the ball close to the hole at all, or putting it in play off the tee with any rhythm, and he didn't deserve anything better than what he achieved. I do think Kelly is focused and prepared to start the season, and maybe a little disappointed after Sony, which is the basis for giving him another shot this week, but from experience I actually find that a piss poor performance (i.e., Justin Rose) usually foreshadows a better play to stick with the following week.
Justin Rose(66/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - I can't say I'm expecting Justin to emerge as one of the biggest stories of this season (although I think his time is nearing), but their will be some disappointment here if he isn't knocking on the door of his initial claim sooner rather than later, and an abysmal or even an indifferent start is certainly not in my staking expectations.
GL
