Have a little time. .. thought I'd shed some light on this new "system" that I'm looking into.
Its very simple and I feel offers several advantages. . . first, these plays will be anti public. . . while everyone has their own idea as to what is a public play and what is not, I feel that consensus sites offer a pretty good idea as to what the public is leaning towards. I also look for significant leans . . . not those where 55% is on one side and 45% are on the other.
Second, I feel the best value is home dogs between +7.5 and +21. For now this is the limit that I have set. . . the +21 may increase or decrease as the system devolops but I'm almost certain the +7.5 will not adjust. The main reason for choosing a home dog within these limits is that I feel they are perfect setups for backdoor covers. Home dogs will continue to play hard while many road teams in the fourth quarter will play conservative, willing to give a point or two as long as it doesn't jeopardize the entire game and/or win. A limiting factor (since there will be several home dogs that are within the limits) is that I will look into both sides and see how the home dog plays at home and the road favorite plays on the road. Obviously a simple yet common sense capping method. This should offer some insight as to why the line may appear so inviting as to take the road favorite as if Vegas has sent a "gift". . .
Finally, something I've noticed that ties this all together. The next time you look at a consensus sight (ie wagerline), take a look at the consensus plays and count how many road favorites are picked vs home dogs for college football. You'll be amazed at the disparity. . . so many cappers are drawn to road favorites because the lines seem a little low given the fact that they (the favorites) are playing on the road and not at home. I think home field advantage is often underestimated which makes it so darn easy to fall for the road favorites. For instance, take a look at the Fresno State/Rice game today. I think most felt I was absolutely crazy for taking Rice at ONLY +7.5 (especially with Fresno State coming off an embarassing loss). In the end, Fresno State got the win, but only a 3 point victory as Rice played them very tough at home.
Anyways, I'm sure this system will have several bugs that will need to be worked out and hell, maybe today was simply a lucky fluke (to play devils advocate). But I am confident that I will win more than I lose based on anti public plays alone.
