Have to make a case for trying braves & Newcomb, here.
+130 to +140 might give me pause, but I grabbed some dog at +172.
The only lefty starter the Braves have faced this year was at Colorado, in Newcomb's last start in a matchup of 1st-round picks vs Freeland. Braves won 4-0 as Newcomb was stellar, this following his 1st go vs Nationals where he struck out 6, over 4.1 IP, but was plagued by some poor Braves defense and a Bryce Harper 3-run shut in the second inning.
Opposing lefty Quintana was rocked in his 1st go @Marlins, really just due to some brain-cramps in the 5th inning, before following up with a much better 6-inning performance @Brewers. It should be noted that the Braves scouted Quintana pretty intensely, considering perusing him but took a pass. It should also be noted that the Braves have been better vs L for a couple of seasons, now, including going 15-15 vs L in 2017 when they only went 57-75 vs righties. As mentioned, the Freeland W was the only time they've faced a lefty in 2018 but in recent seasons they've had a better OPS vs L than R, which is the one reliable metric for offense, imo, if you have to pick one.
Newcomb's upside is higher than Quintana's right now, and while they remain fairly equal in fly-ball percentage--Quintana historically produced slightly more round balls--the weather is calling for strong winds blowing in from center. I have to add that, despite not having the slider to instigate ground balls, currently, home runs have never been an issue for Newcomb throughout his career.
I could very well be looking at a push due to likelihood of rain--I see over 60% chance, with rain and snow and locusts coming everywhere, apparently--but I can't pass on this line in the off-chance the game if played to its conclusion, or at least through 5.
+130 to +140 might give me pause, but I grabbed some dog at +172.
The only lefty starter the Braves have faced this year was at Colorado, in Newcomb's last start in a matchup of 1st-round picks vs Freeland. Braves won 4-0 as Newcomb was stellar, this following his 1st go vs Nationals where he struck out 6, over 4.1 IP, but was plagued by some poor Braves defense and a Bryce Harper 3-run shut in the second inning.
Opposing lefty Quintana was rocked in his 1st go @Marlins, really just due to some brain-cramps in the 5th inning, before following up with a much better 6-inning performance @Brewers. It should be noted that the Braves scouted Quintana pretty intensely, considering perusing him but took a pass. It should also be noted that the Braves have been better vs L for a couple of seasons, now, including going 15-15 vs L in 2017 when they only went 57-75 vs righties. As mentioned, the Freeland W was the only time they've faced a lefty in 2018 but in recent seasons they've had a better OPS vs L than R, which is the one reliable metric for offense, imo, if you have to pick one.
Newcomb's upside is higher than Quintana's right now, and while they remain fairly equal in fly-ball percentage--Quintana historically produced slightly more round balls--the weather is calling for strong winds blowing in from center. I have to add that, despite not having the slider to instigate ground balls, currently, home runs have never been an issue for Newcomb throughout his career.
I could very well be looking at a push due to likelihood of rain--I see over 60% chance, with rain and snow and locusts coming everywhere, apparently--but I can't pass on this line in the off-chance the game if played to its conclusion, or at least through 5.
