Brazil all the way

[flapjack]

On top of a bunch of long shot props and game by game bets, my big bet is on Brazil to win it. I feel really good about them for the first time in a long time. But, the odds stink. I never bet favorites in futures in tourney's no matter the sport, seems like a bad deal always. So, looking for opinions, but was thinking of just rolling winnings from each round into each next round. So, using say, 200 as an example:

Option 1:
Brazil +400 200 to win 800

Or, Option 2 - involves ALOT of guessing on future lines when I dont even know the matchups:
Brazil to win Group 100 to win 28

Brazil to advance:
Round of 16 -300 - guessing Mexico?
128 (from winnings of group+original bet) + 100 new bet = 228 to win 75

Qtr Finals -200?
303 to win 151

Semi Finals -150?
454 to win 304

Finals -120?
758 to win 631

1389 final total - 200 original bet = 1189 profit or roughly Brazil +595.

Extra risk is I lose 100 if they come in 2nd in the group then run the table. But, R16 would be against Germany and they'd likely be underdogs so might even catch up in the end. But, at least I can jump off or pull back at any stage if it looks like the wheels are coming off the Brazil train. More work and alot of uncertainty on payoff, but I think there's alot more upside than down.

Any thoughts on this strategy?

 

[kickserv]

So, looking for opinions, but was thinking of just rolling winnings from each round into each next round.
Any thoughts on this strategy?

1st off I think Brazil is over-rated I don't think they even make the final, they have a bunch of good players but are they a team?

The "rolling the winnings over" is a smart move, that way you won't lose money when they don't advance as far as you think they will kurby

 

[flapjack]

1st off I think Brazil is over-rated I don't think they even make the final, they have a bunch of good players but are they a team?

The "rolling the winnings over" is a smart move, that way you won't lose money when they don't advance as far as you think they will kurby

Actually, I would lose the same amount - 200 either way. As for them playing like a team or not, that?s what I like about them, they are and they have a manager with an actual plan. This team is light years better than 4 years ago and might be the most complete Brazil team this century. I weep for their competition.

 

[kickserv]

I weep for their competition.

We shall see what happens, but I see a massive choke by them, they flame out and don't even make the final.

 

[flapjack]

Might as well start tracking my game bets here:

Spain/Portugal Draw +220 1*
0-0 Final Score +681 .5*

90 minutes of Spain passing the ball back and forth and Portugal defending for their lives.

 

[flapjack]

Iceland Draw +405 1*
Denmark ML +150 1*
Denmark+.25 +110 1*

 

[flapjack]

Denmark over 1.75 -119 2*
Croatia ML -135 2*

Don?t really understand the Denmark/Peru O/U. Both these teams like to attack and score at a pretty decent rate.

 

[flapjack]

5-2 with some nice ML hits. Sticking with what I know best. Draw lines:

Mexico screws me pretty much every time I bet on or against them, but I?m a slow learner. So:

Serbia Draw 1* +236
Mexico Draw 1* +365
Mexico +1.25 2* -125

 

[flapjack]

Brazil 1.25 +109 1*
Brazil ML -240 *2

 

[flapjack]

Dirty friggin' Swiss. That put some hurt on my record. I can take losing on the draw with Serbia/CR. I think it was the right bet, just unlucky. I'd take it again. But, damn, Brazil. What the hell was that?

Onward and upward.

Not much value in just taking England and Tunisia's looked really good even with the injuries:

Alli 1st GS +776 .5*
Khazari 1st GS +1604 .5*
England ML & Under 2.5 +164 1*
Under 2 +128 1*
Tunisia +1 +111 1*

 

[flapjack]

Iran/Spain Draw +535 1*
Under 2.75 -112 2*

 

[kickserv]

my big bet is on Brazil to win it. I feel really good about them for the first time in a long time.

As for them playing like a team or not, that?s what I like about them, they are and they have a manager with an actual plan. This team is light years better than 4 years ago and might be the most complete Brazil team this century. I weep for their competition.

1 day before the tournament started Brazil was the fave to win it all (+400 odds)............Brazil didn't even make the semi finals:facepalm:

 

[kickserv]

I think Brazil is over-rated I don't think they even make the final, they have a bunch of good players but are they a team?

I see a massive choke by them, they flame out and don't even make the final.

kickserv = Nostradamus

 

[baby johnson]

hahahaha

 

[flapjack]

kickserv = Nostradamus

Sure. 26 shots, 9 on target, 8 corners, 2 wide open chances directly in front of goal completely flubbed by Coutinho, the game of Courtois' life and they lose by the margin of a fluke own goal. Best team doesn't always win but I'm sure that exactly the way you envisioned it. :facepalm:

But, those are the breaks. So be it.

 

[flapjack]

For tonight, I'd be interested in the over in Yellow Cards if I could get it. This ref isn't shy about giving them - or reds - in big games esp. and no one can be suspended for YC accumulation for the final.

So, instead I'll roll with Croatia +272 and Croati +.25 -103. Hate they've played 2 straight 120 minute games, love getting almost 3 to 1 on the better team.

 

[flapjack]

Yea, my book out the props. Going with bookings over 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5 with descending amounts and Croatia Pk+155 instead of money line and +.25

 

[flapjack]

Yea, my book out the props. Going with bookings over 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5 with descending amounts and Croatia Pk+155 instead of money line and +.25

Welp, the bookings sure didn't pan out, at !east i get to keep my Croatia pk money. I guess that's something.