Break the Book!

[RTL]

From now until the end of the season, I will post a "Break the Book" play on a frequent basis. This play, in my opinion, will give us the best chance to cash a winning ticket. It will be thoroughly researched from every angle possible. I won't assign a unit amount or rating next to it. I will leave the dirty work up to you. Just know that I will be putting the same amount of money on each one of these plays. Good luck, and I will post tonight's play very soon!

 

[RTL]

Kansas Jayhawks -2.5

Tulsa has only played two games so far this season (Arkansas, Witchita State). Kansas has played six games, including Oregon, Florida and UNC. The Jayhawks should benefit from their strong early season scheduling tonight. Kansas has won its last two meetings with Tulsa, and the Jayhawks are 5-0 all-time against the Golden Hurricane. When was the last time you saw Kansas sporting a 1-4 ATS mark this early in the season? Tulsa's starting point guard, Reed, was injured in the Witchita State game. Be sure to check his status. At 3-3, I expect Kansas to play with urgency tonight. Roy Williams is already receiving unsigned threats in the mail. On the other hand, Tulsa has been looking forward to this game the entire off-season. I think the Hurricane will be a little too pumped up for this marquee matchup.

Good luck with your plays!
:bigun:

 

[Morris]

Respect your post, but doesn't this look a little easy? This game jumped out for everyone and everyone was asking why it was only -2 or -3? Looks like a setup?? I don't know will lay off or try the dog.

Bob

 

[THUNDER]

tulsa has played 4 games but it really does not matter they are very experienced- tulsa is a very good team that is deep and at home- kansas has no bench and that is what is costing them-there starters and bench are also turning the ball over- tulsa shoots and rebounds well-kansas saving grace is there size and rebounding-but i think tulsa will cause some mismatches and may wear kansas down as far as quality tulsa is right up there with florida and oregon and they are almost unbeatable at home. jmo gl

 

[jr11]

not to mention that it looks as if the consensus is around 75% towards KU.

jr11

 

[RTL]

Morris,

Nothing is easy in this business. This game is certainly not a setup. Tulsa is ranked higher than Kansas, the Jayhawks are winless on the road, and the Golden Hurricane are seeking revenge at home where they are extremely tough to beat. Don't overanalyze this line. Go with your instincts.

Thunder,

Tulsa is definitely a quality opponent, but the Golden Hurricane haven't played too many games against the likes of Kansas at home this early in the season. I think Tulsa will shit its britches a little tonight.

Good luck to both of you!

 

[RTL]

Jr11,

The consensus is with Kansas, but the line has moved from 2 to 3. It appears to me that Vegas is trying to attract more money on the home dog. Good luck!

 

[Nickelback]

LOL. . . actually, I think that's just a lot of public money going on the team that looks like an easy winner tonight.

C'mon RTL. . . pretend you're in Vegas for the night. . . put on those polyester clothes and look up at the board. Kansas laying 3 at Tulsa. "Tulsa???" you say. You move up to the ticket counter laughing to yourself as you can't believe the gift this book has given you for the night.

What you don't know is that as you're walking away, the counter attendant is laughing at you behind your back. . .

LOL. . . good luck to you anyways bud.

 

[Morris]

RTL
Just my opinion, and I respect everyone's. I'm not trying to sway anybody's pick. You state that Tulsa hasn't played anyone with the likes of Kansas? Kansas has 3 losses where they were never in the game. If Vegas was trying to sway people the game would have moved more than 1 pt. 1 pt. doesn't usually sway too many people. Just my opinion????


Bob

 

[RTL]

Nickel,

I can't believe you think this is a trap. Tulsa is a perennial post-season participant. Basketball bettors are very familiar with the progam. Kansas hasn't played well at all this season. Perhaps the opening line is a trap to take the higher ranked home dog? After all, public money isn't usually wagered on college basketball until the NCAA Tournament. Something to think about. Good luck tonight!

 

[jr11]

RTL, if the consensus is with KU, then the line should go up. No? What is confusing to me is that last night there where two high consensus and they were Kent&Minny. The difference in which I got lost and burnt in with Tulane is that line went down to 10.5. Why with a consensus in the seventies? Whereas the Minny line kept going up as it should. It seems to me, just something I am tracking, if the consensus is high and the line goes up go the other way, if the line should go down follow the consensus. See the same thing happened with Indiana monday, high consensus but the line dropped, hence Indiana cover. I have the line opening with KU at -3. We will see! Anyways, good luck. I will be pulling for you because I think it is a no play for me.

jr11

 

[Stewy]

How does this line look to easy? The higher ranked team getting points at home. In the loss to Oregon, who is an elite 8 team returning almost everyone, Kansas was able to compete with Collison and Simien in foul trouble for nearly the whole game. Lee and Graves played huge minutes off the bench and actually turned a double digit defecit into a tie game with a few minutes left. Don't listen to all these people who are trying to overhype the fact that Kansas doesn't have a deep team. Ofcourse they aren't as deep as they normally are but without a doubt Kansas will put forth their biggest effort of the season tonight. This is as close to a playoff situation you will see this early in the season. A definite must win game for Kansas, I just don't see how this line looks to easy beig the lower ranked team on the road and being favored. WHat , do you think they should be favored by 5, would you bet on them then .

 

[RTL]

jr11,

You are going to drive yourself crazy tracking consensus reports and monitoring line moves. Just remember, Vegas wants equal action on both sides of any line. That way, win or lose, the books are collecting off the juice. In the end, you must go with what you think is going to happen, regardless of what others may say or do. Good luck in the future!

 

[jr11]

I am on board with you. My line went down to 2.5. My theory is as mentioned prior high consensus line goes down follow the consensus. Good luck as I am with you now.

jr11

 

[walleyek]

My two cents. There's no such thing as a trap. This is merely a wimpy fabricated concept dreamt up by us gamblers. There's either true value in a pointspread, or there isn't. Do you think the players themselves know they're playing in a game with a "trap" line? When I hear people whine about a trap it's like nails on the chalkboard for me. If you think a game is a trap, you're already conceding the victory IMO.

 

[RTL]

Stewy,

I couldn't have said it better myself. I just don't get all of these people who are saying this line looks too easy! :shrug:

 

[jr11]

RTL, I agree with you on follow your own judgement. Look I think I am smart enough as I had a full scholarship to college for basketball at the NAIA level. I understand the game. My whole point is that I am trying to find different trends and angles. If it works then great as we may all prosper.

jr11

 

[RTL]

Break the Book: 1-0

What trap? Jr11, I'll see you at the ticket window!

 

[TLove]

Great win RTL....

I was pullin for ya.....

Keep breakin the BANK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:spotting: :spotting:

 

[RTL]

Thanks Love. Let's do it again tomorrow!