Breaking down big bout?s bets

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Breaking down big bout?s bets

When betting the ?exact result propositions? on some major boxing matches, it?s easy to dismiss one or two of the options on the board and focus on the remaining props.

Typically, this situation arises when the fight involves at least one boxer known for a slippery, defense-oriented style, or a fighter with little knockout power.

For instance, when light-hitting Paulie Malignaggi fought Ricky Hatton last year, it would have been a sound move to begin your analysis by crossing off ?Malignaggi by knockout? ? even if you liked Malignaggi to win as an underdog. Then, you could have bet Malignaggi straight up or Malignaggi to win by decision, depending on a number of factors including what odds were available and the estimated probability of a draw.

Likewise, when Winky Wright fights, it?s often advisable to ignore the props that have either Wright or his opponent winning by knockout, as his past 10 fights have gone the

12-round distance.

Saturday?s junior welterweight clash between Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton at the MGM Grand, however, does not fall into that category.

Pacquiao is favored to win the fight at odds ranging in Las Vegas casinos from minus 240 (risk $2.40 to net $1) to minus 270, but each proposition regarding the outcome should be considered ?live? ? at least more so than in a bout involving the likes of Malignaggi or Wright.

Both Pacquiao and Hatton have knockout power, reflected in the round proposition on the fight, which stands in Las Vegas at over/under 9 1/2 or 10 1/2 rounds, depending on where you shop. But each fighter has also shown an ability to win a 12-rounder by decision.

Based on a review of the worldwide betting market on Saturday?s fight, before taking into account the ?vigorish,? or house?s cut of the action, Pacquiao has about a 70 percent chance of winning (minus 233) with Hatton at 30 percent. (This part of the analysis assumes wagers on either fighter to win straight up are refunded in the event of a draw.)

In the props department ? where betting on a draw is an option ? the market has Pacquiao winning by knockout at about 42 percent (plus 138); Pacquiao by decision at 26 percent (plus 285); Hatton by knockout at 18 percent (plus 456); Hatton by decision at 11 percent (plus 809); and a draw at 3 percent (plus 3200).

Whether you believe your analysis of the fight is superior to the betting marketplace or you?re just seeking value, it?s imperative to shop around for the best number before betting on an ?event? fight such as Pacquiao-Hatton.

The price on Pacquiao to win straight up was as low as minus 240 Wednesday (at the South Point/El Cortez) with the price on Hatton as high as plus 220 at several books including the Cal Neva and Leroy?s joints.

Odds figure to fluctuate through fight night, but for the best price on either boxer check Cal Neva, which is dealing one of the most advantageous lines (for the bettor) on the fight. Cal Neva had it Pacquiao minus 250/Hatton plus 220 Wednesday, for a theoretical hold percentage of just 2.6 percent. Other properties had it Pacquiao minus 270/Hatton plus 210, a theoretical hold exceeding 4.9 percent ? much worse for bettors.

A typical price in Las Vegas on Pacquiao winning by knockout was 6-5, or plus 120. Lucky?s sports books offer yes/no wagering on all exact-result props, with Pacquiao by knockout plus 135 on the ?yes? side and minus 165 on the ?no.?

Also at Lucky?s, Pacquiao by decision was plus 210 on the ?yes? and minus 250 on the ?no.? Hatton by knockout (knockouts for betting purposes include technical knockouts and victories by disqualification) was plus 300 on the ?yes? and minus 400 on the ?no.? Hatton by decision was plus 550 on the ?yes? and minus 750 on the ?no.?

The price on a draw was as high as 20-1 at several properties, including Lucky?s joints and the Las Vegas Hilton. Bettors can also play ?no draw? at minus 3000 at Lucky?s.

On the round prop, bettors will lay a heavier premium for going over 9 1/2 rounds or under 10 1/2 rounds, depending on where they play. For example, at the Hilton it?s over 9 1/2, minus 135; under 9 1/2, plus 115. At the Palms, it?s over 10 1/2, plus 105; under 10 1/2, minus 125.

 

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It?s best to shut up and fight

It?s best to shut up and fight

It?s best to shut up and fight

It?s just as well neither Manny Pacquiao nor Ricky Hatton has engaged in any outrageous trash talk in the buildup to Saturday?s big junior welterweight fight at the MGM Grand.

All too often in a competitive event ? whether it?s a poker
tournament, the Madden NFL video game or a professional prizefight ? trash talking tends to backfire, according to a doctoral dissertation by Ben Conmy, a recent transplant to Las Vegas.

?A lot of times people talk trash with a certain intent, perhaps to motivate themselves, but it often has what we call a ?paradox effect? in that it inspires the other person to go to performance levels they never dreamed of,? Conmy said. ?It lights a fire in the opponent.?

Conmy, a fan of Hatton who grew up in England, earned his doctorate at Florida State after completing his dissertation titled ?Trash Talk in a Competitive Setting: Impact on Self-Efficacy, Affect and Performance.? (Full disclosure: A column I wrote is cited in the paper.)

The son of a professional ?footballer? in his homeland, Conmy said he was always fascinated by the psychological side of sports. Among the major boxing matches he studied were Oscar De La Hoya?s fight against Ricardo Mayorga in 2006 and Hatton?s loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2007.

After winning by a sixth-round technical knockout, De La Hoya said he had virtually hand-picked Mayorga, a notorious trash talker, as an opponent because he knew he would be motivated by Mayorga?s disparaging remarks.

Hatton, popular for his candor and friendly demeanor, ran up against an expert trash talker in Mayweather, Conmy said.

?I?ve watched Ricky Hatton for years and watched his preparation for his fights in the U.K. and I noticed how different it was when he came over for the Mayweather fight,? Conmy said. ?I noticed how things change when you?re under that massive amount of pressure with that kind of money on the line.

?For someone like Mayweather, trash talk is an integral feature of his strategic approach to boxing. He?s done it since he was knee high to a grasshopper. He knows exactly what he?s saying, why he?s saying it and the reaction he?s trying to get.?

Though Hatton has not run Pacquiao down personally, his strongest statements ? calling Pacquiao vulnerable in the ring, all but guaranteeing a victory ? could be the result of the intensity of the promotion rather than a calculated ploy, Conmy said.

?I think Ricky Hatton feels under pressure here, maybe because of the size of the fight, to give media sound bites and say things about his opponent that are not necessarily strategic for Ricky,? Conmy said. ?He?s speaking from the heart. That?s the way he is. I think in a big Vegas fight, you?re expected to act in a sort of a promotional capacity, not just be a boxer.

?I think my findings argue that perhaps Ricky should just be concentrating on fight specifics, not the trash talking dance demanded in the U.S. and particularly Vegas.?

Pacquiao has been his usual soft-spoken self. If anything, he has gone out of his way to compliment Hatton?s ability.

Yet even he cannot help but be affected by the celebrated exchange between his trainer, Freddie Roach, and Hatton?s trainer, Floyd Mayweather Sr., Conmy said. In prefight interview sessions both fighters have been asked about the war of words their trainers are waging.

?Having to answer a bunch of questions about what?s being said and what was meant by what was said can take a toll. I know some of this is necessary for the whole promotion, but it might not be the most helpful thing,? Conmy said.

That?s especially accurate in a fight like Saturday?s, in which neither boxer is a master of the craft of trash talking, a la Mayweather Jr.

?I think both of these characters at their core are really similar,? Conmy said. ?Pacquiao is a man of the people. So is Hatton. They?re both honest. They both give 100 percent every time. I think at the end of the fight, they?ll end up having a tremendous amount of respect for each other.?

 

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Refined Hatton ready for Pacquiao

Refined Hatton ready for Pacquiao

Refined Hatton ready for Pacquiao


Ricky Hatton said there's a misconception about himself that he wanted to clarify.

Contrary to popular belief, the junior welterweight from Manchester, England, has not reinvented himself since joining forces with trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr. Rather, Hatton calls it a refinement of skills he already possessed.

"I'm still the old Ricky Hatton," he said of the power-punching, rough-and-tumble fighter he has been throughout a 13-year professional career that has produced a 45-1 record with 32 knockouts. "I'm just more polished."

Hatton has not forgotten how to be aggressive. But he admitted some of his boxing skills had eroded in the latter stages of his relationship with Billy Graham, who had trained him from the outset of his career until last summer, when the duo parted ways.

"I knew I had good footwork, a good jab and good head movement," Hatton said. "The problem was I had stopped using those things. In the time I've been with Floyd, I've been able to rediscover those parts of my game."

He knows he'll need all his boxing skills if he hopes to defeat Manny Pacquiao on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden.

But Hatton is sincere when he talks about the fight and what the outcome will be.

"I'm not the bragging type," he said. "But I feel different for this fight than any other. I feel like I'm a more complete fighter. I feel better prepared.

"But saying is one thing and doing is another. It's a very, very tough fight. Manny is a great fighter. But I'm going to be the biggest man that Manny has faced. And it's going to be one of those rare times where I am bigger and taller than my opponent."

At 5 feet 7 inches, Hatton is an inch taller than Pacquiao. So it's not like he's going to tower over him.

Still, if Hatton believes he has an advantage and it keeps him in a positive frame of mind, he'll use it. But his skill set in the ring needed a tuneup, and Mayweather has been able to connect with him during their 12-week training camp as they team up for the second time.

Their first time together was a seven-week camp to prepare Hatton for his Nov. 22 fight with Paulie Malignaggi. Hatton had one of his most impressive performances in years, scoring an 11th-round TKO victory at the MGM.

"I'm in a perfect place I want to be with my weight, my sharpness, everything," Hatton said.

Mayweather said Hatton continues to be a good student.

"Listen, the name of the game is hit and not get hit," Mayweather said. "Ricky has much better boxing skills than people realize, and he showed them when he beat Malignaggi, and he's going to show them when he beats Pacquiao."

Mayweather has concentrated on three specific areas with Hatton. One is footwork. He wants his fighter to have better balance and be able to slip Pacquiao's left hand when Pacquiao comes forward. Hatton said his lateral movement is much improved, and he won't be an easy a target for Pacquiao's left hand.

Second, Mayweather has continued to stress head movement. He wants Hatton to be elusive from the neck up, something Hatton showed signs of against Malignaggi, a fighter with quick hands who never was able to get a clean shot in on Hatton. His head movement that night was arguably the best he had displayed his entire professional career.

Finally, there's hand speed and counter punching. Mayweather has emphasized timing to Hatton, knowing when to get in and when to get out. The plan is to box with Pacquiao rather than brawl with him.

"I'm a lot more difficult to read right now," Hatton said. "I strongly believe I would be as fast as Manny. My defense is a lot better. I'm moving my head faster. I'm jabbing a bit more. I think Manny's going to be shocked when he sees what I've got, technically speaking."

Hatton said the fact he and Mayweather understand each other better the second time around has made this camp fun, as well as educational.

"The first time we were together, I didn't understand a thing Floyd was saying the first two weeks, and I don't think he got my sense of humor," Hatton said. "But he's a fantastic trainer, and no disrespect to (Pacquiao's trainer) Freddie Roach, but I think I've got the best trainer in boxing in my corner."

Mayweather didn't disagree.

"Ricky don't need me to beat Pacquiao," he said. "But he has a better chance to win with me than without me."

 

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COMEBACK INTRIGUE: Mayweather return shadows fight

COMEBACK INTRIGUE: Mayweather return shadows fight

COMEBACK INTRIGUE: Mayweather return shadows fight

Pacquiao, Hatton open to bout if star ends retirement

It's all about Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton this week as the junior welterweight stars prepare to square off in the ring Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden.

Lurking not far away is the specter of Floyd Mayweather Jr. The former welterweight champion and unofficial pound-for-pound king has been retired since he knocked out Hatton on Dec. 8, 2007. However, Mayweather appears ready to come out of retirement, and both Hatton and Pacquiao wouldn't mind fighting him this year.

"I would love another crack at him," Hatton said. "I'm a much better fighter since I fought Floyd. It would be a different outcome."

Pacquiao, the current pound-for-pound champion, said if his promoter, Top Rank chairman Bob Arum, sets up a megafight with Mayweather, he would be all for it.

"Sure I'd fight (Mayweather) if he decided to fight again," Pacquiao said. "But I leave that up to my promoter."

His trainer, Freddie Roach, said if the weight was right, he would have no problem putting his man in the ring against Mayweather, who retired at 39-0 with 25 knockouts.

"It would have to be a catch weight, probably 143, 144 (pounds)," Roach said. "I don't think it would be at 147. But Manny's not afraid of anyone."

Mayweather's father, Floyd Sr., is convinced his son will fight again. And if there's a rematch against Hatton, the elder Mayweather would have a tough decision to make; he currently trains Hatton.

"I love my son. I taught him how to fight," Floyd Sr. said. "But this is business. A man has to eat. A man has to take care of his family. He doesn't take care of me, so I have to do what I have to do to take care of myself."

There has been mounting speculation Mayweather Jr. will return July 18 to fight Juan Manuel Marquez. An MGM official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the Grand Garden is being held open for that date, one week after the UFC 100 mixed martial arts show at the same venue. The fight could be announced as early as Saturday, hours before Pacquiao and Hatton enter the ring.

However, Leonard Ellerbe, Mayweather Jr.'s friend and senior adviser, said he can't confirm anything at this point. Neither would Richard Schaefer, the chief executive officer of Golden Boy Promotions, which handles Marquez.

"I'm not going to speculate on what will or won't happen," Schaefer said Thursday. "I have not heard from Floyd Mayweather Jr. that he's back, and that's the truth."

Schaefer said his focus is on Hatton-Pacquiao, not a proposed Mayweather-Marquez matchup.

"It would be unfair to Ricky Hatton and Manny Pacquiao to talk about another fight," Schaefer said.

Arum, who promoted Mayweather when he turned pro after the 1996 Olympics, said as long as those who are representing Mayweather are honorable, he would have no problem making a deal for a Pacquiao-Mayweather fight.

"I have no dislike whatsoever for Floyd Mayweather. I have no like whatsoever for Floyd Mayweather," Arum said. "My only concern is he has to have someone on his negotiating team I can trust. I don't need any sleazebags. I don't need any Machiavellis."

Mayweather is rumored to be in financial trouble, and there are reports he has been talking to Don King about representing him in a possible return. Arum said he would have no trouble with King, his longtime rival, or Schaefer, his current promoting contemporary, in striking a deal to have Mayweather fight Pacquiao.

"If Schaefer came to me with a contract, we can get a deal done in a day," Arum said. "There's no bull with Richard. If Don King were on the other side representing Mayweather, I'd have no problem with that. I understand Don. There'd be a little more posturing, but we would get it done."

? NOTES -- Today's weigh-in at the Grand Garden begins at 2:30 p.m. with the main-event fighters expected on the scale around 3. Admission is free. ... Pacquiao is a minus-280 favorite at MGM Mirage sports books, down from minus-270 Wednesday. The take back on Hatton is plus-240. ... Pacquiao met and posed for pictures with President Clinton on Wednesday at the Four Seasons, where Clinton was giving a speech.

 

[Lumi]

The Battle of East and West

The Battle of East and West

The Battle of East and West

Matchup: Ricky Hatton vs. Manny Pacquiao
Date: Saturday, May 2, 2009
Television: HBO PPV
Location: Las Vegas
Division: Junior Welterweight
Title: IBO and Hatton's Ring magazine junior welterweight title
Betting line: Manny Pacquiao (-270) Juan Manuel Marquez (+210)
Round Prop: 9 1/2


fight is second nature for the three-time trainer of the year. Come May 2, Roach will once again be answering questions from journalists, patrolling the lobby of TheHotel and just generally doing what he does best, making Vegas just another place he could call home.

But Roach is just a part of the bigger picture.

All eyes are fixated on the two fighters whose paths will cross inside the ropes at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Both have been in this situation with differing results throughout their careers. For five-division champion Manny Paacquiao, downing future Hall of Famer but energy sapped Oscar De La Hoya was just another addition to the Pilipino fighter?s distinguished resume. A future Hall of Fame inductee of his own, Pacquiao and fellow trainer Roach are synonymous for taking over a venue like a roaring hurricane.

Making the trek to Vegas for the fourth time in his career, Ricky Hatton is the epitome of the working class fighter. His hometown of Manchester in the United Kingdom is a direct reflection to his blue collar roots. This image of a scrappy, punch until the opponent takes a seat type mentality has helped ?The Hitman? attain world wide recognition. But it hasn?t been an easy ride to this point.

Saturday will once again prime fans from all corners of the globe to witnessing another one of Las Vegas? show stoppers. If we decide on taking Hatton at +210 (bet $100 to make $210), does the value tell a story that analysis might not uncover? And what might another ?W? on Pacquiao?s resume really prove?

Pride of England

Ricky Hatton is no stranger to fighting talent that many have deemed ?superior?. Flashback to December, 2007 and in the same building that Hatton will be fighting in this Saturday. After bagging up wins in the United States versus Luis Collazo, Juan Urango and Jose Louis Castillo, Hatton truly believed he was ready to take on the best in the business (and was ready to accept the estimated, $10 million). But then came round 10 and the counter punch that put Hatton on the canvas and ultimately led to the TKO stoppage.

The bounce back fight that followed was a unanimous decision win over Juan Lazcano in Hatton?s own backyard of Manchester, Lancashire, United Kingdom. While you?ll be hard pressed to find literature on the exact, round-for-round accounts of what fully transpired that evening believe me when I say to you that Ricky ?The Hitman? Hatton was a few seconds away from ending his career not far from where it had begun.

Facing serious trouble after being tagged by a hook to the head, Hatton clinched for his life until referee Howard John Foster called time for what appeared to be a phantom, holding the head down call on Lazcano. Then came an unbelievable, 20 second shoe lace stoppage which gave Hatton just enough time to clear the cob webs out of his head. Be it as it may, Lazcano took the loss and a chunk out of his promising career.

Coming off his most recent win over Paul Malignaggi in November of last year, Hatton has rediscovered himself. He?s come a long way from fighting exclusively in England (minus three visits to the US early in his professional career). ?The Hitman? once told the media that he thought it might be time to hang up his gloves, but a win on Saturday could very well put Hatton on the pedestal he?s been so desperately working for.

Pilipino Phenom

Does it get better in boxing then Manny Pacquiao? The question can be argued and tossed around forums, but there?s no questioning the dominance that ?Pac-Man? has claimed.

His last loss was against Eric Morales in the first of three fights on Feb. 19, 2005. Since then Pacquiao has ran through his opponents, going 9-0 with five KOs and/or TKOs. But the most impressive feat about to be etched into the heads of fans and history books alike is Pacquiao?s attempt to link five championships in five different weight classes. If that?s not the epitome of reaching a pinnacle in one?s career then please tell me otherwise (minus attaining the famed, sextuple champions that only four have done before ? Thomas Hearns, Hector Camacho, Oscar De La Hoya and James Toney).

There are several parts to Pacquiao?s game that?s been nothing short of amazing in scope. The first is his progression through the weight classes, beginning with a WBC flyweight title win against Chatchai Sasakul in 1998. Fast forward 10 years later and we?re now talking about a fighter who?s blasted opponents in super bantamweight, featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight and junior welterweight divisions.

Something else I?ll get into down this page is Pacquiao?s ability to maintain his blistering speed despite gaining, give or take, close to 30 pounds over the course of his career. Those questioned if his fight against Oscar De La Hoya would turn in favor of the naturally bigger man? But we all know what happened at the end of the day in that match. De La Hoya was the man in the ring that looked sapped of energy in response to dropping weight. Let?s be honest, he was looking mighty frail to put it bluntly.

And now Pacquiao finds himself attempting to snatch up another piece of boxing history. He?s got the weight of an entire nation resting on his shoulders (the Philippines) and the shot at grabbing his fifth championship in yet another weight class.

Abilities

There are several sets of skills that can be compared between both fighters.

Speed: Manny Pacquiao is the first to get on the board in this comparison of fighters, dominating the speed category. Pac-Man was born with this gift and although he?s consistently training down at Wild Card Boxing Club in Hollywood, California to improve the speed at varying weight classes, the bottom line is it?s a tough skill to teach. But let?s not throw Ricky Hatton under the bus. He might not measure up to Pacquiao?s hand speed but his brute force in the gloves translates into his own natural velocity that shouldn?t be overlooked. - Edge to Pacquiao

Power: Flipping the script, Hatton is in possession of the power edge. Racking up 32 KOs in 45 victories, ?The Hitman? prides himself on getting hooks, uppercuts and the occasional straight hand through defenses with neck snapping force. But what serves as his greatest strength was also revealed to be his downfall. The most convincing example was in the monumental loss against Mayweather Jr. in 2007. While Hatton did squeak the occasional pot shot onto Mayweather?s face, the 10th round revealed that the Brit had finally punched himself out of energy. Since traveling and fighting on US soil, Hatton has scored two knockdown victories while being knocked out himself against Mayweather (out of five total fights). ? Edge to Hatton

Defense: Pacquiao?s defense could be his greatest liability heading into this bout. We?ve seen the No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer jeered by head shots from Erik Morales. We?ve seen Marco Antonio Barrera floor Pac-Man in the first round in their first fight in 2003. And we?ve seen Pacquiao?s face bloody and cut throughout his career. While not all the results mentioned have been a direct symptom of lackadaisical defensive skills, it?s safe to say that this ability is not Pacquiao?s strongest suit. ? Edge to Hatton

Experience: As the table indicates above, the list of fighters that Manny Pacquiao has faced, floored and built an overall career over are extensive. From Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera to Juan Manuel Marquez and Oscar De La Hoya, don?t look any further for the fighter who enters this match with the most experience. - Edge to Pacquaio

Betting Corner

There?s only been one spot in which Pacquiao has disappointed backers, and that was on March of 2005 in a unanimous decision loss against Morales as the 6/5 favorite. All three judges scored the fight, 115-113 despite Morales stumbling several times in the final round.

In his last three fights, Pacquiao has returned money as a $2.10 favorite versus Juan Manuel Marquez, as a ?chalky? $4.50 favorite in his win against Juan Diaz and most recently as a $1.35 underdog versus Oscar De La Hoya.

The cash collection in his last win didn?t seem to reflect De La Hoya?s weight issue. In August, four months before the fight, books had opened Pacquiao as a $1.50 ?dog so an adjustment down to +135 could have indicated the decline in what many felt was a ?drained? De La Hoya shortly before round one began. But all evidence indicates that the money movement was based on betting action pouring in on Pacquiao just before fight night. Ultimately, we can surmise that both factors brought Pac-Man?s price down to its closing value.

Hatton?s numbers have been all over tote boards in his last four bouts. Beginning in a win over Jose Louis Castillo as a $1.70 favorite, Hatton burnt those who felt he had a chance versus Mayweather Jr. as a $1.85 underdog. Next up was a win over Juan Lazcano as a hefty $13.00 favorite followed up by his most recent ?W? over Paul Malignaggi, collecting currency at a -265 price (bet $265 to make $100).

Coming full circle, various books have set Pacquiao anywhere from a $2.20 all the way up to a $2.75 favorite so do your shopping wisely. Hatton is catching a price of +210 (bet $100 to make $210) at most parlors.

If your interested in betting the props then 9 ?-rounds is the consensus given out by most books. The ?over? is at -135 (bet $135 to make $100) and the ?under? is just above the even mark at -105 (bet $105 to make $100).

If we dive deeper into propositional prices then 3/1 odds for Hatton to win by TKO, KO or DQ and even odds for Pacquiao to do the same indicates that books and bettors are favoring the fight to be stopped before the judges can intervene. A draw is catching a far fetched, +1700 price.

Fight Night

Whenever a fight of this magnitude hits television sets across boarders then the best advise to give is expect the unexpected. Manny Pacquiao has speed and experience on his side. Ricky Hatton enters the big night with Floyd Mayweather Sr. in his corner and the power to create a punch out reality. But in the end, the two fighters will have each other, the canvas beneath them and the ropes around them to help determine what takes place at the MGM Grand on Saturday.



JACK, WHAT ARE YOU SO MAD ABOUT ?

 

[Lumi]

It's kind of a tough week in these parts.

As the year's initial super event between IBO junior welterweight champion Ricky Hatton and consensus pound-for-pound high horse Manny Pacquiao draws ever closer, I'm trying to decipher some sort of personal rooting interest.

Problem is, I'm not a huge fan of either guy.

While I respect the years of elite status at 140 pounds that Hatton's strung together and I'm surely impressed by the one-sided beatdown Pacquiao put on Oscar De La Hoya last winter, I still don't go into this weekend thinking either man is the be-all, end-all for the sport.

In Hatton's last star turn before the PPV lights, he was beaten bloody and senseless.

In Pacquiao's most recent outing against an in-his-prime fellow P4P A-lister, he barely squeaked by.

So rather than pulling hard for either guy because of individual skills or compelling back story, I'm instead left to look at the future and gauge which man would do more for the sport - i.e., setting up the year's next super-huge, can't-miss event - by winning.


In Manny Pacquiao's most recent outing against an in-his-prime fellow P4P A-lister, he barely squeaked by.
And in those terms, it's really a no-brainer.

A Hatton victory, while spectacular and surprising, would in no way provide foundation from which he could argue a claim to the mythical pound-for-pound championship.

Not as long as Floyd Mayweather Jr. is still breathing.

As noted a few lines above, the last time Hatton attempted to take a step toward boxing's stratosphere, he was left in a heap by a supposedly feather- fisted and challenge-dodging "Pretty Boy."

And though the English drum beats would no doubt sound for a rematch on the affable Mancunian's home turf, there's really no reason to buy the argument that a win over Pacquiao - in whatever form or fashion it might come - suddenly makes Hatton more likely to contend with Mayweather.

It simply doesn't.

In fact, the lone must-see element of a return bout between those two would be whether or not Mayweather's daddy - the always quotable Floyd Sr. - would be willing to cross familial lines and train Hatton to try and punch his son in the mouth a few hundred times.

It's a blood feud he wanted no part of when Floyd Jr. fought longtime charge De La Hoya a few years back - ironically, driving Oscar to the tutelage of arch enemy Freddie Roach - but a full-fledged starring role in another 24/7 blockbuster would be a tough lure for Senior to ignore.

All things considered, that'd be fun.

But aside from the loquacious titillation of dueling blood relatives, the truest chance at a matchup that'd actually answer the "Who's the best fighter in the world" question comes only with a Pacquiao triumph Saturday night.

If the dynamic Filipino wins, especially in a manner more destructive than Mayweather's tactical Hatton dissection 17 months ago, supporters from Manila to Michigan would be whipped to a froth debating their favorite's chances.

Do Manny's visceral punchouts of Hatton and De La Hoya make him a lock against the "Pretty Boy," or would Mayweather's perceived advantages in size, strength and guile be enough to carry the day against a multi-division terror?

Not to mention the draw of another Mayweather-Roach trainer free-for-all, this time including the ever-popular Uncle Roger, whose reported sparring session with Roach in 1983 provided fodder for the most entertaining moments of the run-up to this weekend's show.

"I most definitely was a better fighter than Freddie Roach. As a matter of fact, I've got a poster down at the gym where Freddie's on my undercard," said Floyd Sr., alluding to a 1984 show in Portland, Ore., on which Mayweather lost a 10-round decision to Clayton Hires and Roach had an eight-round no-contest with Efrain Nieves.

Said Roach: "I tried really hard. I fought on TV a lot more than him. I was (more) popular than he was."

Countered Mayweather: "You were a bum. You got hit more than any fighter I've ever known. You know about Roger. Roger told me about it."

Replied Roach: "You were never there, though, because I think you were in jail. Selling drugs or something? That's nice stuff to do."

Outstanding stuff. A verbal feast for casual fans and zealots.

And, in spite of Bob Arum's dismissal of Mayweather as a drawing card - ignoring his role as a main-event presence on historys most lucrative PPV - don't think for a moment that thawing can't begin by the time Michael Buffer's through hailing Pacquiao as new IBO champion.

It makes too much sense not to.

While Mayweather's rumored dance with Juan Manuel Marquez or a Pacquiao bout with Miguel Cotto would entertain the insatiable hardcore element, neither presents the sort of marquee juice that'd garner week-long lead story status on SportsCenter.

And aside from excessive trainer bickering, jingoistic flag waving and inane message board trash-talking, the contrasting styles of Mayweather and Pacquiao provide for what actually could be a pretty damned good fight in the ring.

Love him or hate him, most would at least acknowledge Junior's prowess as a defensive master and give him full props for breaking character with particularly significant offensive outbursts against rough-and-tumble foes like Corrales, Gatti and Hatton.

Meanwhile, Pacquiao's proven nothing if not special since 2005, earning at least some form of recognition at three weight stops from 130 to 147 pounds, after an early career that had already yielded title belts at 112 and 122.

A recent online poll in Mayweather's hometown Grand Rapids Press had 82 percent of 1,896 respondents calling for Pacquiao as the "Pretty Boy's" next foil, compared to 9 percent for Shane Mosley. A similar poll at About.com produced similar results, with 49 percent of nearly 800 voters choosing Pacquiao and 15 percent favoring Mosley.

So the public clearly wants it. And even Richard Schaefer, kingmaker at Golden Boy Promotions - the company whose golden goose was decisively cooked by both men - agrees.

"If Manny Pacquiao would win against Hatton, I don't care who you put in front of him, big or small, he would be the pound-for-pound champion," he said. "To put him and Mayweather together, it would be for all the marbles. If you think about each one of these fights, even if you were a casual fan, you would have to get excited about them."

In light of all that, can anyone tell me how - Arum's blustering and Mosley's envy notwithstanding - this fight doesn't get made?

My advice to all involved: Just do it.

Right now. Immediately. Today.

Oh, sorry Ricky... errr, good luck this weekend.

* * * * * * * * *

This week's title-fight schedule:

SATURDAY IBO junior welterweight title - Las Vegas, Nev.

Ricky Hatton (champion) vs. Manny Pacquiao (No. 1 contender)

Hatton (45-1, 32 KO): Fourth title defense; Unbeaten at 140 pounds or less (34-0)

Pacquiao (48-3-2, 36 KO): Ex-champion at 112, 122, 130 and 135; Nine-fight win streak

FitzHitz says: Pacquiao in 7

WBC super featherweight title - Las Vegas, Nev.

Humberto Soto (champion) vs. Benoit Gaudet (No. 9 contender)

Soto (47-7-2, 30 KO): Second title defense; Three of seven career losses in U.S.

Gaudet (20-1, 7 KO): First title fight; Second fight outside Canada

FitzHitz says: Soto in 9

WBA bantamweight title - Bremen, Germany

Anselmo Moreno (champion) vs. Wladimir Sidorenko (No. 1 contender)

Moreno (24-1-1, 8 KO): Third title defense; Won belt from Sidorenko in May 2008

Sidorenko (21-1-2, 7 KO): Held title for 39 months; Won five of eight title bouts (5-1-2)

FitzHitz says: Sidorenko by decision

Last week's picks: 5-0 (100 %) Overall picks record: 86-34 (71.6%)

 

[HurricaneEddy]

sorry im late but great articles dude. thanks

 

[frank s.]

Intelligent, well written materiel. Appreciated.

 

[The Sponge]

Glad guys gave this author some credit. I wanted to but i thought the King of chalk would have gotten jealous.