Anyone got any favorites yet? I've capped the first 5 (the 3 Friday races and first 2 Saturday) so far and have a few I really like. I'm getting ready to do the write-ups I do each year for every entered horse and email them to my buddy. I'll post my top 3 and some thoughts for those first 5 in a little while.
BREEDER"S CUP
- Thread starter C-A-T-S
- Start date
Working on my picks now. In the Distaff I really like Lear's Princess. Any horse beating Rags to Riches is good enough for me. Adding Ginger Punch and Lady Joanne in the exotics. Just waiting on post positions to finalize this race.
I don't know if this will transfer properly. I just cut and pasted from the email I sent my buddy to save myself some hunting and pecking. Also, so I don't lose any credibility I may have before we get started, I do know that it is Breeder's Cup and not Breeder''s Cup. I look forward to the back-and-forth this week. Let's get it on!!!
Oh, and there has been a few scratches since I typed this, namely Ibn Khaldun in the Juvi Turf.
(Which pisses me off because I thought he had a big shot at winning.) Ok, here we go:
I?ll use ?can?t bet ?em all? (CBEA) a lot to save myself some typing. This will just mean that I could find reasons to bet the horse but I like others better and you can?t bet them all. If I say this about a particular horse you like or dislike let me know and I?ll explain what I see.
BC Juvenile Turf
Achill Island ? never out of the money, 3-way photo for second in G2, respect O?Brien but this is not one of his stronger entries
Cherokee Triangle ? Trainer is hitting at a good clip this year and has had some success with 2 year olds, he could possibly run on for a share if the pace collapses, but he?ll have to pass a lot of better horses
Domestic Fund ? CBEA
Gio Ponti ? Clement on grass, closed like a monster last time but had the benefit of riding the rail, will be carrying more weight than ever
Ibn Khaldun ? Will be absolutely flying at the end and will have a good pace to run into, Detorri rides, less weight than ever
Nownownow ? seems to find trouble, seconditis?
Old Man Buck ? going in the juvenile
Preachin Man ? If he can get the distance, he can lead them the whole way. Distance is a big ? though and you CBEA. I do like that Werner shows the confidence to run him and he hits 26% first turf
Prussian ? He will harder to get the lead here than he is used to and I think that can be a problem for a 2 year old. I do not like Desormeaux at all. He could easily win, but it will be without me.
Strike the Deal ? Has the best #?s of foreigners and I look for him to sit right off of the leaders and take control down the stretch. If he gets beat I think it will be by a closer nailing him at the finish.
Texas Fever ?will get burned up front, my pick for last place
The Leopard ? I gave my reasons earlier. If Johnny V. can get him to relax he will hit the board, it?s that simple
Year Round ? CBEA
Top 3 in order: Strike the Deal, Ibn Khaldun, The Leopard
Dirt Mile
Commentator ? Zito is not very good off of 61-180 day layoffs, this is not his distance, he will not get an easy lead
Corinthian - $485,000, mile should be perfect distance, if Desormeaux rides he moves down on my ticket
Diamond Stripes ? One of the most consistent horses out there, you know what you will get and that will be good enough to at least hit the board. I don?t like that he is 0-3 in grade 1?s but look who those were against.
Discreet Cat ? Maybe my play of the day, 2nd off a long layoff, should be primed and ready. If he is on they are all fighting for 2nd.
Forefathers ? I have questions about this one getting the distance CBEA
Gottcha Gold ? He loves the track and will ensure a fast pace, but I think he will ultimately be burned on the front and fade. Notice that win over Lawyer Ron though?.
High Finance ? One of the speed horses I expect to stay the whole way, needs an inside post though
Lewis Michael ? 2nd off a layoff and the trainer hits 36% with those. Could pop his best race of his career and would need to against these. I like Douglas and if he rides he might move into my top 3 above High Finance
Park Avenue Ball ? Loves the track but he hasn?t won in over a year. CBEA
Wanderin Boy ? He?s been running in some tough races and finally got a well deserved rest. His best days may be behind him and Zito is not one of the better layoff trainers.
Xchanger ? CBEA (I think he needs a break)
Top 3 ? Discreet Cat, Diamond Stripes, 3-way tie with Corinthian, High Finance, and Lewis Michael At this point I am leaning towards Lewis Michael.
Juvenile Fillies
A to the Croft ? CBEA
Backseat Rhythm ? Should love distance, will be running late
Clearly Foxy ? Trainer hits 25% turf to dirt, CBEA
Cry and Catch Me ? Almost got nailed at the wire last out, kind of looks like she is bread for turf
Grace Anatomy ? I look for this filly to appreciate the distance and be ready for a career best off in her second off of a layoff and breaking in the air last out and only getting beat by a length and a half.
Indian Blessing ? winner
Irish Smoke ? I am scared of this one but will probably leave her out due to distance ?s
Izarra ? Will be running late, trainer does not have a good record with 2 year olds.
Phantom Income ? CBEA
Proud Spell ? May have distance limitations, will be part of pace and will probably get burned.
Set Play ? Was going backwards in her first try around 2 turns - CBEA
Smarty Deb ? All you can do is beat the horses you line up against, nice blood, could set right behind the speed and get first run.
Tasha?s Miracle ? CBEA
ZeeZee ? CBEA ? will move up if Nownownow runs well in the Juvi Turf Friday
Top 3 ? Indian Blessing, Grace Anatomy, Smarty Deb
Juvenile
Beresford ? Out
Dixie Chatter ? Beyers improving each race, beat 2 of these last out in Grade 1 even though he bobbled at the start
Kodiak Kowboy ? I like this horse a lot but I have questions about the distance
Majestic Warrior ? Out
Old Man Buck ? May move up if Cherokee Triangle runs big in the Juvi Turf, but probably a cut below these. I remember backing this horse?s sire in the Juvi and he didn?t do shit. Well I think he ran third, but that didn?t help me any.
Pyro ? I?m really starting to like this colt. He was gaining ground on War Pass and I think the added ground will be huge for him. Should come flying for at least a share.
Salute the Sarge ? Just looks like a cut below. CBEA
Shore Do ? CBEA
Slew?s Tiznow ? CBEa
Tale of Ekati ? What?s not to like? Fast, 2-off, sharp trainer, hit the gate last out and still won
Texas Fever ? Will not get the lead and will be lost.
War Pass ? Distance, if any of them go with him he will be done, was losing ground in the Champagne
Wicked Style ? Sire won this race, improving Beyers, battle tested from 2 back, would not surprise
Z Humor ? CBEA
Top 3 ? Tale of Ekati, Pyro, Dixie Chatter
(Or I could be wrong and War Pass will wire them. I will back myself up.)
F&M Turf
All My Loving ? Does not like to win
Argentina ? Hasn?t won in over 2 years. I respect Frankel and she should be ready to give a decent performance in her second race off of a layoff.
Arravale ? No wins in a year including 2 races she was favored in.
Danzon ? CBEA
Honey Rider ? 3rd in this last year, loves the distance, got a much needed break and should come back ready to run. The only one in here with a trip over the surface.
Lahudood ? Nice race last time out off of a layoff, could either improve or flop, not sure
Nashoba?s Key ? 7-7 , enough said
Passage of Time ? Group 1 winner, 2nd off of a long layoff, good blood
Simply Perfect ? Multiple Group 1 winner, Smith/Magnier/Tabor owned, fast timeform ratings, 2nd off layoff, main threat
Timarwa ? CBEA
Wait a While ? May have peeked last year, disappointing 4th last year at 2-1, CBEA
Top 3 ? Simply Pefect, Nashoba?s Key, tie for 3rd -Passage of Time/Honey Rider
Oh, and there has been a few scratches since I typed this, namely Ibn Khaldun in the Juvi Turf.
(Which pisses me off because I thought he had a big shot at winning.) Ok, here we go:
I?ll use ?can?t bet ?em all? (CBEA) a lot to save myself some typing. This will just mean that I could find reasons to bet the horse but I like others better and you can?t bet them all. If I say this about a particular horse you like or dislike let me know and I?ll explain what I see.
BC Juvenile Turf
Achill Island ? never out of the money, 3-way photo for second in G2, respect O?Brien but this is not one of his stronger entries
Cherokee Triangle ? Trainer is hitting at a good clip this year and has had some success with 2 year olds, he could possibly run on for a share if the pace collapses, but he?ll have to pass a lot of better horses
Domestic Fund ? CBEA
Gio Ponti ? Clement on grass, closed like a monster last time but had the benefit of riding the rail, will be carrying more weight than ever
Ibn Khaldun ? Will be absolutely flying at the end and will have a good pace to run into, Detorri rides, less weight than ever
Nownownow ? seems to find trouble, seconditis?
Old Man Buck ? going in the juvenile
Preachin Man ? If he can get the distance, he can lead them the whole way. Distance is a big ? though and you CBEA. I do like that Werner shows the confidence to run him and he hits 26% first turf
Prussian ? He will harder to get the lead here than he is used to and I think that can be a problem for a 2 year old. I do not like Desormeaux at all. He could easily win, but it will be without me.
Strike the Deal ? Has the best #?s of foreigners and I look for him to sit right off of the leaders and take control down the stretch. If he gets beat I think it will be by a closer nailing him at the finish.
Texas Fever ?will get burned up front, my pick for last place
The Leopard ? I gave my reasons earlier. If Johnny V. can get him to relax he will hit the board, it?s that simple
Year Round ? CBEA
Top 3 in order: Strike the Deal, Ibn Khaldun, The Leopard
Dirt Mile
Commentator ? Zito is not very good off of 61-180 day layoffs, this is not his distance, he will not get an easy lead
Corinthian - $485,000, mile should be perfect distance, if Desormeaux rides he moves down on my ticket
Diamond Stripes ? One of the most consistent horses out there, you know what you will get and that will be good enough to at least hit the board. I don?t like that he is 0-3 in grade 1?s but look who those were against.
Discreet Cat ? Maybe my play of the day, 2nd off a long layoff, should be primed and ready. If he is on they are all fighting for 2nd.
Forefathers ? I have questions about this one getting the distance CBEA
Gottcha Gold ? He loves the track and will ensure a fast pace, but I think he will ultimately be burned on the front and fade. Notice that win over Lawyer Ron though?.
High Finance ? One of the speed horses I expect to stay the whole way, needs an inside post though
Lewis Michael ? 2nd off a layoff and the trainer hits 36% with those. Could pop his best race of his career and would need to against these. I like Douglas and if he rides he might move into my top 3 above High Finance
Park Avenue Ball ? Loves the track but he hasn?t won in over a year. CBEA
Wanderin Boy ? He?s been running in some tough races and finally got a well deserved rest. His best days may be behind him and Zito is not one of the better layoff trainers.
Xchanger ? CBEA (I think he needs a break)
Top 3 ? Discreet Cat, Diamond Stripes, 3-way tie with Corinthian, High Finance, and Lewis Michael At this point I am leaning towards Lewis Michael.
Juvenile Fillies
A to the Croft ? CBEA
Backseat Rhythm ? Should love distance, will be running late
Clearly Foxy ? Trainer hits 25% turf to dirt, CBEA
Cry and Catch Me ? Almost got nailed at the wire last out, kind of looks like she is bread for turf
Grace Anatomy ? I look for this filly to appreciate the distance and be ready for a career best off in her second off of a layoff and breaking in the air last out and only getting beat by a length and a half.
Indian Blessing ? winner
Irish Smoke ? I am scared of this one but will probably leave her out due to distance ?s
Izarra ? Will be running late, trainer does not have a good record with 2 year olds.
Phantom Income ? CBEA
Proud Spell ? May have distance limitations, will be part of pace and will probably get burned.
Set Play ? Was going backwards in her first try around 2 turns - CBEA
Smarty Deb ? All you can do is beat the horses you line up against, nice blood, could set right behind the speed and get first run.
Tasha?s Miracle ? CBEA
ZeeZee ? CBEA ? will move up if Nownownow runs well in the Juvi Turf Friday
Top 3 ? Indian Blessing, Grace Anatomy, Smarty Deb
Juvenile
Beresford ? Out
Dixie Chatter ? Beyers improving each race, beat 2 of these last out in Grade 1 even though he bobbled at the start
Kodiak Kowboy ? I like this horse a lot but I have questions about the distance
Majestic Warrior ? Out
Old Man Buck ? May move up if Cherokee Triangle runs big in the Juvi Turf, but probably a cut below these. I remember backing this horse?s sire in the Juvi and he didn?t do shit. Well I think he ran third, but that didn?t help me any.
Pyro ? I?m really starting to like this colt. He was gaining ground on War Pass and I think the added ground will be huge for him. Should come flying for at least a share.
Salute the Sarge ? Just looks like a cut below. CBEA
Shore Do ? CBEA
Slew?s Tiznow ? CBEa
Tale of Ekati ? What?s not to like? Fast, 2-off, sharp trainer, hit the gate last out and still won
Texas Fever ? Will not get the lead and will be lost.
War Pass ? Distance, if any of them go with him he will be done, was losing ground in the Champagne
Wicked Style ? Sire won this race, improving Beyers, battle tested from 2 back, would not surprise
Z Humor ? CBEA
Top 3 ? Tale of Ekati, Pyro, Dixie Chatter
(Or I could be wrong and War Pass will wire them. I will back myself up.)
F&M Turf
All My Loving ? Does not like to win
Argentina ? Hasn?t won in over 2 years. I respect Frankel and she should be ready to give a decent performance in her second race off of a layoff.
Arravale ? No wins in a year including 2 races she was favored in.
Danzon ? CBEA
Honey Rider ? 3rd in this last year, loves the distance, got a much needed break and should come back ready to run. The only one in here with a trip over the surface.
Lahudood ? Nice race last time out off of a layoff, could either improve or flop, not sure
Nashoba?s Key ? 7-7 , enough said
Passage of Time ? Group 1 winner, 2nd off of a long layoff, good blood
Simply Perfect ? Multiple Group 1 winner, Smith/Magnier/Tabor owned, fast timeform ratings, 2nd off layoff, main threat
Timarwa ? CBEA
Wait a While ? May have peeked last year, disappointing 4th last year at 2-1, CBEA
Top 3 ? Simply Pefect, Nashoba?s Key, tie for 3rd -Passage of Time/Honey Rider
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I just realized I didn't have the Filly & Mare Sprint in here. I sent that to him last Friday and the email is gone. Now that La Traviata is going in this race my picks are pretty chalky:
La Traviata, Miss Macy Sue, Dream Rush
La Traviata, Miss Macy Sue, Dream Rush
Cut and pasted from an email again:
Sprint - Disclaimer ? I never have much luck in the Sprint. I have had some huge prices that hit the board but I never seem to have the right combo.
Smokey Stover ? likes the track, loves to win, trainer hits over 40% 1st off a 31-61 day layoff!!!
Midnite Lute ? That is just too big of a Beyer jump in his last race for me to not expect him to bounce a little. He may need that extra furlong to run his best
Atilla?s Storm ? Always runs hard but he may be just a cut below the best in here. I don?t like that he is 0 for 5 in Grade 1 races.
Talent Search ? Will contribute to the pace but probably won?t be around at the end.
Kelly?s Landing ? The layoff doesn?t bother me as much as the fact that he hasn?t ran a race that would win this in the last 2 years.
Commentator - CBEA
Idiot Proof ? One of only 3 in here who have ran 6f in 1:07 and the only one to do it this year (twice & once on this track) Wait, Benny The Bull did it back in May, which leads me to??..
Benny The Bull ? will be flying late, will have plenty of pace to run into, trainer does well off of layoffs
Bordonaro ? I hate this post draw but if Discreet Cat finds the fountain of youth Friday I will be all over this horse to do the same here. It is kind of a sentimental play, but I?ve got to go with him one more time before I throw in the towel for him.
Greg?s Gold ? Should be able to drop to the inside from out here and get a decent trip about mid-pack. Should be primed 2nd off a layoff and Espinoza will ride the legs off him down the lane.
Forefathers ? CBEA
Top 3 (or 4) ? Idiot Proof, Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull, Greg?s Gold
(I know I left out Bordonaro but I?ll put $10 across on him for peace of mind)
Mile
Rebellion ? CBEA
Icy Atlantic - CBEA
After Market ? Will be strong down the lane and should get first run right in front of Nobiz
Host ? I don?t like to leave out anything ridden by GG and this one does have a win over the surface but no wins in a graded race forces me to toss this one
Jeremy ? I like the jock and they say Stoute doesn?t ship unless they are live but this one would surprise me a little.
Trippi?s Storm ? will be running late, if I had a tri ticket without this one on it I would not be very comfortable, should get a good price
Cosmonaut ? Bad Karma for Biancone, CBEA
Kip Deville ? loves the distance, have to use underneath
Nobiz ? Obviously likes the turf, will need to improve a little bit off that last race but as a 3 year old, I would expect him to do just that.
My Typhoon ? If she can keep her feet under her unlike the last 2 races she could be a major factor and should at least be part of the pace.
Silent Name ? First start with Frankel, which is good, but I?d rather have seen Nakatani keep the mount. CBEA
Purim ? This horse looks like he needs more distance to me. I?m sure Therriot will give him a good ride but he is probably a cut below these at the distance.
Excellent Art ? I look for him to go flying by with about a 1/16 left and leave Nobiz, Trippi?s Storm, After Market, & the filly to fight it out for 2nd and 3rd.
Remarkable News ? Will be part of the pace but won?t get it alone and will probably get passed by most of them turning for home.
Top 3 ? Excellent Art, After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz
Terpfan - I haven't got to the Distaff yet but Lear's Fan will definitely be tough. I'll be done with that race tomorrow.
Sprint - Disclaimer ? I never have much luck in the Sprint. I have had some huge prices that hit the board but I never seem to have the right combo.
Smokey Stover ? likes the track, loves to win, trainer hits over 40% 1st off a 31-61 day layoff!!!
Midnite Lute ? That is just too big of a Beyer jump in his last race for me to not expect him to bounce a little. He may need that extra furlong to run his best
Atilla?s Storm ? Always runs hard but he may be just a cut below the best in here. I don?t like that he is 0 for 5 in Grade 1 races.
Talent Search ? Will contribute to the pace but probably won?t be around at the end.
Kelly?s Landing ? The layoff doesn?t bother me as much as the fact that he hasn?t ran a race that would win this in the last 2 years.
Commentator - CBEA
Idiot Proof ? One of only 3 in here who have ran 6f in 1:07 and the only one to do it this year (twice & once on this track) Wait, Benny The Bull did it back in May, which leads me to??..
Benny The Bull ? will be flying late, will have plenty of pace to run into, trainer does well off of layoffs
Bordonaro ? I hate this post draw but if Discreet Cat finds the fountain of youth Friday I will be all over this horse to do the same here. It is kind of a sentimental play, but I?ve got to go with him one more time before I throw in the towel for him.
Greg?s Gold ? Should be able to drop to the inside from out here and get a decent trip about mid-pack. Should be primed 2nd off a layoff and Espinoza will ride the legs off him down the lane.
Forefathers ? CBEA
Top 3 (or 4) ? Idiot Proof, Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull, Greg?s Gold
(I know I left out Bordonaro but I?ll put $10 across on him for peace of mind)
Mile
Rebellion ? CBEA
Icy Atlantic - CBEA
After Market ? Will be strong down the lane and should get first run right in front of Nobiz
Host ? I don?t like to leave out anything ridden by GG and this one does have a win over the surface but no wins in a graded race forces me to toss this one
Jeremy ? I like the jock and they say Stoute doesn?t ship unless they are live but this one would surprise me a little.
Trippi?s Storm ? will be running late, if I had a tri ticket without this one on it I would not be very comfortable, should get a good price
Cosmonaut ? Bad Karma for Biancone, CBEA
Kip Deville ? loves the distance, have to use underneath
Nobiz ? Obviously likes the turf, will need to improve a little bit off that last race but as a 3 year old, I would expect him to do just that.
My Typhoon ? If she can keep her feet under her unlike the last 2 races she could be a major factor and should at least be part of the pace.
Silent Name ? First start with Frankel, which is good, but I?d rather have seen Nakatani keep the mount. CBEA
Purim ? This horse looks like he needs more distance to me. I?m sure Therriot will give him a good ride but he is probably a cut below these at the distance.
Excellent Art ? I look for him to go flying by with about a 1/16 left and leave Nobiz, Trippi?s Storm, After Market, & the filly to fight it out for 2nd and 3rd.
Remarkable News ? Will be part of the pace but won?t get it alone and will probably get passed by most of them turning for home.
Top 3 ? Excellent Art, After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz
Terpfan - I haven't got to the Distaff yet but Lear's Fan will definitely be tough. I'll be done with that race tomorrow.
I meant Lear's Princess.....
My buddy and I met tonight to put together some pick 4 tickets, so I didn't have to do as much typing today. I'll just post my top 3 for the last 3 races and if you want to know why, just ask.
Distaff:
1. Unbridled Belle 2. Ginger Punch 3. Balance
Turf:
1. Dylan Thomas 2. Better Talk Now 3. English Channel
Classic:
1. Any Given Saturday 2. Street Sense 3. George Washington
Best Bets:
Friday: Discreet Cat
Saturday: Indian Blessing
Here are our pick 4 tickets:
Indian Blessing -Izarra
Tale of Ekati-Dixie Chatter
Honey Rider-Nashoba's Key-Simply Perfect
Idiot Proof-Kelly's Landing-Smokey Stover
Excellent Art-Nobiz-After Market
Ginger Punch-Unbridled Belle-Balance
Dylan Thomas-English Channel
Any Given Saturday-Street Sense
Good Luck!!!
My buddy and I met tonight to put together some pick 4 tickets, so I didn't have to do as much typing today. I'll just post my top 3 for the last 3 races and if you want to know why, just ask.
Distaff:
1. Unbridled Belle 2. Ginger Punch 3. Balance
Turf:
1. Dylan Thomas 2. Better Talk Now 3. English Channel
Classic:
1. Any Given Saturday 2. Street Sense 3. George Washington
Best Bets:
Friday: Discreet Cat
Saturday: Indian Blessing
Here are our pick 4 tickets:
Indian Blessing -Izarra
Tale of Ekati-Dixie Chatter
Honey Rider-Nashoba's Key-Simply Perfect
Idiot Proof-Kelly's Landing-Smokey Stover
Excellent Art-Nobiz-After Market
Ginger Punch-Unbridled Belle-Balance
Dylan Thomas-English Channel
Any Given Saturday-Street Sense
Good Luck!!!
