Outright plays (1pt):
Shingo Katayama to win 16/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Nothing has changed from last week, including the price, and so what was written last week still applies. He has finished in the top-7 in seven of his last eight Japan Tour events and he has a great record around this course as well with top-3 finishes in each of the last two years. Maruyama heads the market, but his last win in Japan was five years ago, albeit in this event. Just can't see Katayama not being on the leaderboard on Sunday.
Steven Conran to win 33/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Also retaining Conran as a selection, though his odds are down from 40s. He was in the top-5 for the much of the event last week, but just finished outside the mark at the end. But with four top-7 finishes in his last five starts, he is clearly a player in form. When he has shown some form in the run-up to this event, he has finished 9th (2000) and 14th (2003) and he certainly should surpass those marks this year.
Paul Sheehan to win 33/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Dropped Taniguchi for the first time last week and he won, so a little wary of dropping Izawa, but at 14/1 his price has fallen rather a long way in four weeks. Instead, Sheehan represented excellent value at 33/1. He is the best-ranked Australian in the Money List at 6th place, winning once and finishing 2nd twice from 14 Japan Tour starts in 2004. In the last three weeks, he has finished 2nd in the Acom International; was 2nd after round 1 of the Tokai Classic, was playing in the worst of the build-up to Typhoon Ma-on so shot 80 in the second round, but then shot 68 in the third round to finish 7th; and last week was again caught in the worst of the windy conditions, made worse through set-up of the course, in the second round. He really is playing very well at the moment and added to the fact that he finished 2nd last year only via a playoff loss to Joe Ozaki, this really is value at 33/1.
Shingo Katayama to win 16/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Nothing has changed from last week, including the price, and so what was written last week still applies. He has finished in the top-7 in seven of his last eight Japan Tour events and he has a great record around this course as well with top-3 finishes in each of the last two years. Maruyama heads the market, but his last win in Japan was five years ago, albeit in this event. Just can't see Katayama not being on the leaderboard on Sunday.
Steven Conran to win 33/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Also retaining Conran as a selection, though his odds are down from 40s. He was in the top-5 for the much of the event last week, but just finished outside the mark at the end. But with four top-7 finishes in his last five starts, he is clearly a player in form. When he has shown some form in the run-up to this event, he has finished 9th (2000) and 14th (2003) and he certainly should surpass those marks this year.
Paul Sheehan to win 33/1 e.w. @ IASbet
Dropped Taniguchi for the first time last week and he won, so a little wary of dropping Izawa, but at 14/1 his price has fallen rather a long way in four weeks. Instead, Sheehan represented excellent value at 33/1. He is the best-ranked Australian in the Money List at 6th place, winning once and finishing 2nd twice from 14 Japan Tour starts in 2004. In the last three weeks, he has finished 2nd in the Acom International; was 2nd after round 1 of the Tokai Classic, was playing in the worst of the build-up to Typhoon Ma-on so shot 80 in the second round, but then shot 68 in the third round to finish 7th; and last week was again caught in the worst of the windy conditions, made worse through set-up of the course, in the second round. He really is playing very well at the moment and added to the fact that he finished 2nd last year only via a playoff loss to Joe Ozaki, this really is value at 33/1.
