British Bulldogs Prop recommendations

[british bulldog]

I posted these recommendations in the community pages late last night and said I would post my reasons behind each of them today in the forum. So with that quick reminder out of the way, lets get on with it.


PROP BET RECOMMENDATIONS


DeShaun Foster OVER 47.5 net rushing + receiving yards -110

Tom Brady to Win MVP +175

First score of the game = FIELD GOAL +110

Shortest FG in the game under 25.5 yards -130

Team to have the most first downs = New England (?2) +120

Three Unanswered Scores? NO +170

Highest Scoring Half? SECOND (+0.5) -120

Shortest TD in the game over 1.5 yards -105

Both teams will make a 32.5 yard or more FG -110

Patriots over 2.5 sacks -105

Total Points by John Kasay Over/Under 7.5 pts = OVER +145

Rushing attempts by Antowain Smith. Over/Under 17.5 attempts? = UNDER -110



DeShaun Foster OVER 47.5 net rushing + receiving yards (-110)

With the injury to Stephen Davis, Deshaun Foster has stepped up bigtime for the Panthers, rushing for 155 yards, and adding 14 receiving yards, in their wins over St. Louis and Philadelphia. Even though Davis will be playing on Sunday, one play in particular from last week should guarantee that we will again see plenty of Foster. With the Panthers on the Eagles one-yard line, Foster ran toward the right pylon and was stood up not once, but twice by Philadelphia defenders. Almost as if he were a man among boys, Foster shrugged off five Eagles before finally reaching across the goal-line for a touchdown and a 14-3 lead that quieted the home crowd. We know Carolina is going to run the ball a lot. I expect Foster to get numerous opportunities and for his combined rushing and receiving stats to finish above the 47.5 mark.




Tom Brady to Win MVP (+175)

I realize that I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, as Brady is the clear favorite in this prop. I think +175 offers us pretty decent value though. I'm not sure if New England will cover the number or not, but considering they are -265 on the moneyline, I do think they'll likely find a way to win the game. If they do, then Brady has an excellent shot at winning his second Super Bowl MVP award in the last three years. Quarterbacks have won the MVP award 10 of the last 19 years. Brady, who is highly popular with the fans, will be helped by the fact that fan voting will once again count towards determing the winner. I already played at +175.




First score of the game to be a field goal (+110)

Both of these teams have good field goal kickers, especially New England?s Vinatieri. Also, are on the conservative side and to get on the board first with three points would be something that I believe both coaches would like to do.




Shortest FG in the game under 25.5 yards (-130)

If you do the mathes you can calculate that if one of the teams gets stopped from the eight yard line in, they would attempt a FG from 25 yards or less (10 for the end zone and 7 yards back from the line of scrimmage). With both teams having good defenses I believe that?s there?s a very good chance that one team will stop the other from scoring from inside the 8-yard line and thus making that team kick a 25 or less yard FG.




Team to have the most first downs ? New England ?2 (+120)

With this prop bet I'm wagering on New England to have three more first downs than Carolina. They catch you here by throwing out this ?2 line. If the Pats have two more first downs it?s a push so your really betting that they move the chains three more times than the Panthers. I believe that New England has the better offense and the better defense and therefore should be able to cash this one and we're the dog returning +120.




Three unanswered scores yes (-200) no (+170)

One of the first prop bets which caught my eye was on whether either squad will be able to string together three unanswered scores. Oddsmakers have pegged a three-score onslaught by one of the teams at -200. But if you think the game will be a back-and-forth affair that won't see any back-to-back-to-back scores, the line is as high as +170. Here's a closer look at how the two squads shape up against this prop bet.

Carolina Panthers didn't have a chance to put together three scoring plays at all in dropping Philadelphia 14-3 to get to the Super Bowl. Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster combined to put up 136 rushing yards and one major while Jake Delhomme was solid, going 9-for-14 for 101 yards with one TD. Carolina strung two field goals and a major together in the second half against St. Louis. The Panthers also accomplished the feat twice on the way to smoking Dallas 29-10 in the first round of the playoffs. Carolina's offense is catching fire at the right time, posting 24 points per game in the playoffs, up from 20.9 during the regular season. The Panthers have registered 20 or more points in five of their last six games, while their stellar defense has held strong, allowing 20 points just twice in six contests. The defensive part of the equation is key for this prop bet. Not only do you have to score three times, you have to prevent the opposition from putting points on the board.

New England Patriots looked great in pulling football's version of the natural hat trick, going up 15-0 on the Colts before they could get on the board in the Conference Championship. New England shut out Indianapolis in the first half, and ended up beating the Colts 24-14. The Pats forced four turnovers in a dominating defensive performance, while Tom Brady and Antowain Smith led the offense. The week before, New England couldn't even post two consecutive scores in a 17-14 win over Tennessee. But in Week 17, the Pats pasted the Bills, dropping 31 unanswered points in a shutout. New England's defense is just as stifling as Carolina's. The Pats are giving up just 9.3 points per game over the last three, while Brady is pushing the offense to a 24 point clip over that span.

In a quick appraisal of both sides you will note how evenly these two teams are matched on the defensive side of the ball.

Each defense allows less than 300 total yards per game.

Each defense allows less than 4 yards per rushing attempt.

Each defense yields less than 105 yards per game on the ground.

Each defense has recorded at least 45 sacks this season.

Each team holds opponents to less than 36 percent on 3rd down conversions.

Each defense allowed less than 18 points per game this season.

Each defense recorded four interceptions in the Conference Championships.

 

[british bulldog]

PART 2


Highest scoring half / quarter totals

One of the most interesting plays this weekend from a handicappers perspective is the Quarter Totals. The numbers opened as;

1st Quarter Over/Under 7.5
2nd Quarter Over/Under 13
3rd Quarter Over/Under 7.5
4th Quarter Over/Under 10

Game Total 38

These numbers are obviously picked with the Game Total divided up amongst the quarters, circling the key numbers 7, 10 and 13. However, they are flawed from a statistical point of view, as many football numbers are. Because the frequency of the numbers 3 and 7 being scored, football "averages" are not similar to any other sport. Still, when approaching numbers, posted odds must be quasi-consistent with true odds.

When it comes to Super Bowls, 46 is the medium number. There have been 37 Super Bowls played and the average combined score of those 37 games is 46 points. But that doesn't account for the trend towards higher scoring Super Bowls, as the big game has averaged 53 points per game over the past 11 years, including the 69 point explosion featuring 48 points the defensive Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season and a 34 point outburst from maybe the best defensive team in NFL history, the Super Bowl Ravens. In fact, in a real contrary twist, the two lowest scoring Super Bowls in recent times both featured the St. Louis Rams and the most explosive offenses in NFL history. So, some real mixed messages coming over the last 11 seasons.

More glaring however, is the quarter lines, which are not at all consistent with the history of the game, either recent or historic. Below is a chart showing the average points per quarter for the previous 37 Superbowl games and the second figure is for the last 11.


1st Qtr 7.5 - 9.0 11
2nd Qtr 13 - 12.7 12.5
3rd Qtr 7.5 - 11.0 13.5
4th Qtr 10 - 13.3 16

As you can see, there is quite a disparity between the offered odds and true odds, or at least, the historic precedent. Were I making the numbers, I would be more inclined to use 7.5 for the first quarter and then balance the remaining quarters at 10.5, which still accounts for the combination of 3's and 7's typical of football while recognizing the trend to higher scoring Super Bowls. Nonetheless, for handicappers, there is certain overlay in Super Bowl Quarter lines.

Another interesting way to bet the total is as follows;

WHICH HALF WILL THERE BE MORE POINTS SCORED:

FIRST HALF -0.5 +100
SECOND HALF +0.5 -120

If recent trends have anything to do with it, the second half should win by a landslide. In the last five Super Bowls, the second half has seen nearly double the amount of points scored than the first half. The second half averages 31.4 points, while the first sees a mear 16.4 points. You have to go back to the 1998 Super Bowl to find the last time two Super Bowl opponents lit up the scoreboard in the first half. That year Denver and Green Bay combined for 31 points in the first and 24 in the second in a 31-24 Denver victory.

For some reason, oddsmakers only have the second half listed as a slight favourite for this year's game in Houston. The second half is set as a minus -120 chalk while the first half is posted at +100. The -120 is a small price to pay if you like the second half, considering the stingy defenses of both Carolina and New England appear to be more vulnerable as the game wears on. In each of the Patriots last three games, the defense has allowed more points after halftime than before. The club is allowing a touchdown per second half over that span compared to a ridiculous 2.33 in the first. This makes sense as clubs have struggled to cope with the Patriots swarming defense that throws numerous formations and patterns at the opposition. It was the same pattern in 2001 when the Pats won the NFL's top prize. That year, they allowed just 13 points in the first half through three playoff games and 34 combined points in the second half. New England and St. Louis scored 17 points in the first and 20 in the second in the Super Bowl that year. Adam Vinatieri booted the winning field goal on the final play to line the pockets of second half bettors. If the game had gone into over time, second half supporters still would have cashed, as OT is included with that wager.

Carolina, like New England, has played better defense in the first half on average these playoffs. The Panthers have allowed 16 points combined in three first halves in the playoffs and 21 points combined in the second. Carolina has also outscored itself 39-33 in the second half compared to the first throughout this year's postseason.




Shortest TD in the game over 1.5 yards (-105)

The only way to lose this wager is for one of the teams to score from the one-yard line. Obviously the Sportsbooks have the stats and results that would seem to indicate that there?s a pretty good chance of a 1-yard TD being scored. But, I?ll bite and take this over.




Both teams will make a 32.5 yard or more FG (-110)

As I mentioned earlier, with these two kickers and the caliber of these two defenses, red zone opportunities will be tough to come by. The style of play of both teams and coaches that will be happy to take the FG and live to fight another day makes this prop a good probability that both of these guys will connect on FG's of 32.5 yards or more.




Total Points by John Kasay Over/Under 7.5 pts ... OVER (+145)

Since this game should come down to field position and special teams both teams will rely heavily on their field goal units. Kasay has been shaky of late missing two crucial field goals in the double OT win over the Rams. He will be back to form and ready for center stage and puts up at least 3 FG's. Play over 7.5 points for +145.




Patriots over 2.5 sacks (-105)

I have to believe that Fox will have the reins on Delhomme. I know that Carolina is a running team and won't throw the ball too often, however to stay with the Patriots they are going to have to mix it up and throw the football, at least some short passes. But, if the receivers aren?t open Delhomme will not take any chances and therefore eat the football. Also, Belichick has the uncanny ability of blitzing from all different angles and would expect the Patriots to get to Delhomme at least three times in the game.




Rushing attempts by Antowain Smith. Over/Under 17.5 attempts? = UNDER -110

I like the UNDER in this prop, and if you can find a total rushing yards prop (I have seen numbers from 76.5 to 80.5) I also like the Under in that, for all of the same reasons I am about to detail.

Smith played in only 13 regular season games, meaning his 182 regular season carries average out to 14 carries per game. He was 2-11 to the Under in this prop in the regular season, with one of the Overs being an 18 carry day so it clearly could have gone either way. Something that happens 85% of the time (his Under ratio) should be much more than a -120 favourite. Antowain was 1-1 on this prop in the playoffs, 16 carries vs. the Titans and 22 against the Colts. He did have 18 carries in the Super Bowl against the Rams a couple of seasons ago and was 1-1 to the Over in the playoffs that season, giving him a 3-2 Over mark in the postseason. However, both this playoff run and that one included a couple of cold weather games, and Bill Belichick makes no bones about the fact that Smith is his cold weather back. Rest assured, it will not be snowing inside Reliant Stadium for this game, meaning that it is quite likely that Kevin Faulk, who had only four less regular season rushes than Smith, will be the main ball carrier. That is also a likelihood since speed, not strength, is needed to have success running against Carolina.

New England is all about team, with the matchup dictating who plays the most and what the offense does. The setting and the matchups concerning Faulk's speed favor the Under in this one, and one final look at the stats shows that Smith averaged just 11.6 carries per game prior to December this season with that number dropping down to 10 per game on artificial turf. One last note, Smith had just eight carries on Nov 23rd when New England visited Houston. The UNDER is the way to go here.

 

[genosays]

Thanks for the opinions BB .... love that under 17 on Ant. Smith carries .... should cash as NE will spread the ball around as you suggested. Good luck on the props.

 

[british bulldog]

Hope you all followed. 7 from 12 and a nice profit of 4.20 units. Plenty of dog winners, Patriots more first downs, Brady MVP and no back-to-back-to-back scores by same team.