British Masters

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Darren Clarke to win 11/1 e.w. @ Stan James
On course form, he is an automatic choice. In the last four years, he has finished in the top-5 every time and won twice. He has posted some high finishes in the U.S. this year and will surely continue that form now the real European Tour season has begun. Will look for another top-5 finish at worst from the Ulsterman.

Paul Casey to win 16/1 e.w. SkyBet, BetInternet, UKBetting and Totalbet
Casey has had two solid performances around the Forest of Arden complex and should go even better this time as it is a course that suits his game. It rewards attacking golf. He should also be buoyed by two extremely impressive performances on the PGA Tour where had had previously struggled. Top-10 finishes in the Players Championship and the Masters have put him high in the Ryder Cup standings and he will surely cement his place in the team over the next few months.

Michael Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Cambo last played on this course in 2000 when he led after an opening 63 and still retained the lead going into the final round. On that occasion, a closing 65 by Darren Clarke was enough to pip him to the title by a stroke, but at least he will now draw comfort that he tamed this course on his last visit. He similarly started very well with an opening 65 last week to lie 3rd, but fell back once the chaos arrived on the weather front. It still shows that he is playing well and if so, he is certainly capable of winning against such a strong field.

 

[lal2000]

Anybody know the whereabouts of Harrington & Rose this week - they don't seem to be playing anywhere & I can't find any news?

LT

 

[Stanley]

Rose played in New Orleans last week, so I doubt he will be back in action until the Deutsche Bank in two weeks' time.

Harrington is already confirmed for both next week's event in China and the Deutsche Bank the following week. He's also missed both his cuts around the Forest of Arden, so that might have helped shape his schedule.

 

[lostinamerica]

To supplement Stan's answer, Justin is actually the easiest golfer to keep tabs on, bar none.

http://www.justinrose.com/

Justin's diary is always worth reading and is kept in the archives.
("I'll speak to y'all from New Orleans . . ." :lol: ) His schedule confirms his next appearance is the Deutsche Bank.

 

[lal2000]

Thanks Stan and LIA - the JR link is particularly helpful!

 

[lostinamerica]

NOTES:

A. While the Palmer course in Milan was not a stern test, it was refreshing to see a course worthy of a Tour stop, and I think the players appreciated it. The bottom line was that it produced a deep leaderboard that made some real sense after a couple of suspect weeks of anything goes; it was all the way to Robert Coles in 12th place to find a name that wasn't on my radar before the tournament and for whom I couldn't have made a respectable case in advance for their chances of featuring on the leaderboard. This week brings a truly well regarded and player anticipated venue that should once again generate something intriguing and layered on the leaderboard.

B. For anyone that might have missed it, Graeme McDowell after shooting 66-66 in the the first two rounds in Italy: "McDowell has worked hard to put a team in place including his trainer Adam Griffen, coach Claude Harmon and his father Butch, and mental coach Carl Morris, and management team of International Sports Management and McDowell now feels he has all the pieces in place to take his game forward . . . 'This is the first time I have ever felt this good about my game,' said the 2002 Scandinavian Masters Champion. 'I am playing as well now as I ever have in my life. Worked hard on my short game and this year it feels where it needs to be to compete on this level. It would have been easy to think I was on the wrong path but knew I was in the right direction and I have been playing well now for weeks . . . I have a good team in place now. It is great to have guys on the other end of the phone who you can call up and instantly have positive reinforcement for the stuff we have been working on and direction and guidance. I have known for the last four or five months that I am on the right path and it is good to see results coming.'? That was a newsworthy nugget that I put to my advantage for $35 on Sunday, essentially as a hedge on my Cabrera wager, and it turned out to be just that.

C. I guess I was aware it existed, but before this week I never went back and looked at the European Tour Weekly video archives for prior events and/or venues. It's immediately apparent that this is a fantastic tool for jogging my memory (which is O.K. on its own) regarding the layout, how the championship unfolded each day, weather, lads with local connections, just rich tidbits that I expect will make a difference more than once this year. And the stuff that's there goes back a lot further than just one year. The problem is fitting just one more resource into a time schedule of things that could stand doing to fully cap an event. http://www.europeantour.com/Tournaments/VideoHighlights.sps?iTourNo=2003028

D. More Preview: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ma...it05.xml&sSheet=/sport/2004/05/05/ixgolf.html


OUTRIGHTS:

Paul Casey(14/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
For exactly the reasons Stan gave, adding that Casey has not tasted victory since May of last year, which coincidently coincided with the Euro Tour landing on Britain's shores last year (at The Belfry).

Darren Clarke(9/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
The course Darren would like to pack up and carry around in his back pocket in order to take on all comers, or something like that.
http://www.correctodds.com/golf/eu/2004/xe04e06.htm



Sometimes putting together a list of players that could feature feels like contrived guesswork at best. If my expectations are close to the mark for this week generating an intriguing and layered look to the Saturday night leaderboard, then it's not much of a surprise that this is one of those weeks at the other end of the spectrum in which the difficult and capricious calls seem to arise from taking a knife and paring down the selections and stakes to manageable levels . . . Can the Houston/New Orleans experience shed any light on the impact of a quick turnaround in Europe? . . . Anyway, I'm ready to commit to two more plays, and before Thursday I might act against my better judgment and include one or even two more at full stakes.

Thomas Levet(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Levet had the benefit of skipping one round last week to get to the playoff, and it is true that his calling card is going from exquisite to shattered in a heartbeat, skipping over wobbly and fragile altogether. And he did hit the losing shot after 21 brilliant holes on Sunday/Monday, and now he needs to quickly bounce back from that. On the other hand, the cheap route to the playoff may have been just the right ticket for getting over a barrier, and a quick turnaround may work to his advantage. Regardless of all that, Levet's balky putting can kind of be counterbalanced against ball striking that can look SO effortless and appealing (and some nice displays of touch around the greens); he goes immediately to a course that will reward his strengths; his profile for this year shows him going from some of his best stuff, to some skunky play on some skunky courses, to a return to form (Defeated Levet said: "I tried to hit an easy six-iron into the fourth playoff green but just caught it fat . . . But I was playing so badly before this week I nearly withdrew. Shooting two 65s and finishing 19-under for 54 holes would normally be good enough for a win."); he was British Masters champion in 2001 (not at this venue); and dreary weather is also up his alley.

Martin Maritz(100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Maritz was just an indistinct shadow on the fringes of my radar last week. While accurate driving is not his strength, if you were sharp enough to have had him last week, I don't know what you saw that would cause you to abandon his side this week.


MATCHUPS:

Levet(-108) over Haeggman (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

McDowell(+110) over Westwood (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes


GL

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ SkyBet
Opposing Poulter with two of the outright selections. He is simply not consistent enough to be supported in matchbets. He did finish in the top-10 last week, but it was the first time that he had done so in a strokeplay event since January. Good course record, but there are others who can play this course well and are in much better, and more consistent, form.
(available widely)

Darren Clarke to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ BetandWin, William Hill and Easybets
Clarke's course form cannot be questioned and while his form on the PGA Tour has been patchy, though improved in the last six weeks, he is a far better player when in Europe.

Retief Goosen to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Ladbrokes
Simply the better player and, like Clarke, raises his game when in Europe where he is definitely a big fish in the proverbial little pond. Lots of good course experience and while I didn't fancy Goosen's outright odds, I would be very surprised to see him finish outside the top-10.

Bradley Dredge to beat Gregory Havret -125 @ Centrebet
Not reading too much into his 3rd place finish at the rain-shortened Italian Open last week and that leaves a lot o very average results for Havret. Dredge looks to be getting back to his best form and his withdrawal after the 1st round last week can be easily ignored.

Michael Campbell to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Backing the third outright selection in the matchups as well. Immelman's top finish outside South Africa this year has been 24th (strokeplay events only), he comes into the event off three missed cuts and he has poor course form. Should be straightforward for Campbell.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5)

Lee Westwood 50/1 @ Sky
Paul Lawrie 100/1 @ Paddy Power
C Schwartzel 80/1 @ Sporting Odds
G McDowell 66/1 @ Victor Chandler
C Cevaer 125/1 @ Sporting odds

Ian Poulter 14/1 @ Victor Chandlers (3 Units ew)

Also interested in Maritz, Gallacher, Derksen & Vibe-Hastrup.

Taking a big position on Poulter this week ? unusually contrary to Stans view ? feels right and I think his time has come.

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

Some spice for the weekend ? mixed doubles & trebles ? all @ SkyBet, Sporting Odds, Chandlers & Paddy Power & largely ? unit ew.

Singh/Poulter
Triplett/Poulter
Cink/Poulter
Garcia/Clarke
Cink/Casey
Price/M Campbell
Choi/Cabrera
Love/Westwood
C Campbell/Gallacher
C Howell/McDowell
Toms/Levet
Langer/Maritz
Durant/Paul Lawrie
Durant/Casey
Durant/McDowell


Singh/Poulter/Ochoa
Cink/Clarke/Kerr
Garcia/Casey/Jones
Love/M Campbell/Wie

Good Luck!

 

[mashie niblick]

Hello all

New to this forum and hope these selections don't make me look to stupid.

Brett Rumford
Thongchai Jaidee
Marcel Siem
Mark Roe

Looking to pick up places with these selections with one or two who I consider may have a winning chance.

Selections have come from players with past course history, current GIR / Putting form.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

YTD : +115.7

Almost took Maritz again this week but after last weeks heartbreak he gave me I just cant do it.

I can however side with Clarke. I just cant see past his form on this course. So much that he is my sole wager for this event.

Darren Clarke 5u ew 10-1 (SportingBet)

 

[lostinamerica]

2nd ROUND:

Clarke(+120) over Goosen/Olazabal for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

SATURDAY:

Romero(-115) over Howell for 1* @ 5dimes
Gallacher(+100) over O'Hern (Ties lose) for 1* @ Bet365
Cabrera(-105) over Campbell for 1* @ 5dimes
A.Hansen(-112) over Immelman for 1* @ 5dimes
Davis(-1/2)(-142) over Sjoland for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -2.53pts

Clarke 5th
Casey 12th
Campbell 16th

All three in contention for a top-5 finish, but only Campbell, who had been 2nd after the 1st round, looked like he could win the event. In the end, a four-way tie for 5th place with Clarke was enough to return only half of his stake, so not particularly profitable.

Matchups - Final update: 3-2-0; +0.64pts

Casey/Poulter WON by 3
Clarke/Poulter WON by 6
Goosen/Poulter LOST by 6
Dredge/Havret WON by 2
Cabrera/Immelman LOST by 2

Small profit, though would have been enough to cover the losses on the outrights had Poulter not finished right on the cut line. Generally encouraging though.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-16; -5.96pts
Matchups: 15-15; -2.15pts