British Senior Open

[Ian]

Not going to play on the Senior PGA or LPGA events this week but have concentrated all the funds on one player in this event.
Japanese player Ebihara was 6th here last year in his first full season on the tour, this year he has been a bit of a revelation - in 7 starts he has won twice and been 3rd once. I missed the 16-1 that was on offer earlier this week (thinking I might get bigger) and have settled for the 14-1 Alphabet (5 place option)

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

There is an impressive line-up of players at this year's Senior British Open. Arnold Palmer returns after six years, Jack Nicklaus makes his debut and with long-time regular, Gary Player, the 'Big Three' are in action at Royal County Down. With a number of Senior PGA Tour players also making the trip, though, to be fair, none of the leading players of this year, it looks like being a memorable event.

Rather like last week, the Senior British Open is held on classic links courses. In its 14-year history, it has been staged at Turnberry, Royal Lytham & St. Annes, Royal Portrush and since last year, Royal County Down. The roll-call of multiple winners - Gary Player, Bob Charles, Brian Barnes and Christy O'Connor jnr - shows that experience of links golf will be important this week. As with last week, keeping the ball in play is paramount.

The home hopes lie with Seiji Ebihara, Dennis Durnian and Denis O'Sullivan who have all won at least one on the European Senior Tour this year. However, the gap between the European and PGA Tour is very large at Senior level and this can be seen in last year's event. The top-5 places were all filled with Senior PGA Tour players. I see this year being little different.

Skipping the very short-price favorite, Jack Nicklaus, the three selections are John Bland, Bob Charles and Dave Stockton. Bland has done everything but win this title. He has finished 2nd three times in the last four seasons, once via a playoff. He comes into the event in decent form on the Senior PGA Tour, though he could not manage a place finish last week when a selection and has the links experience necessary to win here.

Bob Charles has won this title twice before - the last time in 1993. At 65 years old, he is too old to be competitive on the Senior PGA Tour, but he is links specialist. Having played in this event every year, on only two occasions has he finished outside the top-5 - 34th in 1997 and 9th in 1998. With such a course history and having warmed-up for this event with an appearance at Royal Lytham last week, he could pull a surprise or two this week.

Dave Stockton has only played in this event once before and he finished 6th last year. With some decent form on the very competitive Senior PGA Tour that has brought him six top-10 finishes this year and 7th place at the US Senior Open only four weeks ago, he looks a quality player in this field and one that can plays links golf. A decent prospect at the available price.

Outright plays:

John Bland to win 12/1 e.w @ NetBetSports
Bob Charles to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetInternet or NetBetSports
Dave Stockton to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Isao Aoki to beat Noel Ratcliffe +100 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
I can't see why Ratcliffe is such a short price for this event. Apart from winning the Beko Classic at the start of the season, he has played poorly on the European Senior Tour, with 16th place his best finish since. A far cry from winning the Order or Merit last year. Aoki may be making his debut in this event, but he has shown a liking for links conditions in previous British Opens and has been playing much better this season on the Senior PGA Tour

John Morgan to beat Dennis Durnian -113 @ Five Dimes
Durnian had a golden spell of five top-5 finishes in five European Senior Tour events starting with the Irish Seniors, but he had done very little beforehand on Tour and failed to break par in Scandinavia in his last event. Morgan has much more flexibility in his game shown by his ability play on both the European and PGA Seniors Tours and his finishes in this event. He has finished 4th in this event for the last two years, whereas Durnian missed the cut in his only attempt

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

With somewhat diminished field and WD of Sigel will venture out on an outright in stateside event.
1/2 unit E/w on Ahern @ 40/1 Surrey

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Just a great couple of days with the European golf, let's hope the weekend holds out! Of the two matchups, neither is decided at the cut, but both lead. Aoki leads Ratcliffe by three and Morgan leads Durnian by five. Great position on the outrights. Bland leads the event, Charles is one shot back in 2nd place and Stockton is not too far back in 11th place

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 1-1-0 and -1.00 units

What a difference a weekend makes! Very disappointing performance by Aoki to close 75-78 and finish eight shots behind Ratcliffe. At least Morgan had a 15-shot win over Durnian to halve the losses.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +0.63 units

What a difference a weekend makes! Started it 1-2 and finished with just a place win. Can't complain too much as two other playoffs ended in victory this weekend, but Bob Charles was the one selection who got to a playoff and lost. Rather fortunate to get to the playoff in the first place, but at least the runners-up spot secured a break-even week overall. Very surprised that John Bland would shoot 76-76 over the weekend to fall from leading the tournament to finish 13th, while Stockton finished a little higher, though without reward, in 9th place. It was looking like a great event on Friday!