Brownlow 2003.

[MrChristo]

Have finsihed watching all games and have my Brownlow results in.

Will wait until I see some head-to-head bets and some special markets before posting any bets, so I guess this thread is some premature information

But, unfortunately it seems as there will be no real 'surprises' this year.

The winner will be decided on which of the 2 fav's score 1 votes in a couple of games....I've got them a fair way ahead of the rest of the crowd. Hoping to find a decent quinella price......although 3.17 for them both to 'place' is nice already.

PAWA.....You might be pleasantly surprised at someone who sneaks into 3rd. And ****!!!!! 32.50 for a place he is too!!

Will be back with some real thoughts soon.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

My man Simmo???

 

[bombercoops]

You might be right there pawa as simmo had a solid season. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts Christo.

 

[MrChristo]

Solid indeed.

Actually got him equal 3rd (with Harvey) so 32.50 for the place is well worth a shot IMO.


Good news is the TOTE has some specials up already...so here we go.....

BET OF THE YEAR/CENTURY/EVER....Adam Simpson to get most votes for Kanga's @ 1.65!!
Amazing price!! I have the next best Kanga on 8 (Harvey and Grant).....Simpson on 19

I usually don't vary my stake at all....but gone 5 times the normal amount on this. Absolute cracker

Fletcher @ 5.00 to get most for West Coast!!!! Have him 4 clear of Cousins and Gardiner. Great price. All over it

Group of 3: Gardiner, Goodes, Fraser. Goodes red hot fav @ 1.40....Which is fantastic for us, 'cause I have Gardiner 3 in front of him (maybe more!). Gardiner a superb 2.90
(Fraser not in the picture.)

They are the 3 bets I've taken so far.....Here are some more that I think are great value, but haven't taken.......yet ........

Most votes for Carlton......7.00 for anyone other than Kouta, Fevola, Ratten, McKay............Camporeale is a decent shot here....7.00 great value . (I have Campo and Kouta both on 5-6)

Bruce 5.50 to get most for Melbourne. Have Neitz on 6-7, Bruce 7-8. Again top value here.

O'Loughlan 7.00 for Sydney!! I've got him clearly infront of Goodes....The thing scaring me here is Jude Bolton is the wildcard. I expect him to be right around the mark also.

All other fav's appear to be winners but all short enough! Coughlan great value @ 1.50 for Richmond....but why bother when Simpson is a better price for a better bet?

Oh! And the thing I was after I found! Voss/Buckley quinella is 5.00.....But will hold off on that. Might find a better price later in the week.

Hopefully some more books follow suit tomorrow and price up some specials for us to take apart.

Back when they do

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Great work MrC
A chance to get some express cash back!!!


Keep 'em coming.

 

[MrChristo]

Sent e-mails to a few books, and they all say their 'specials' will be available tomorrow. (Wednesday).

Will definately be back when I see what's on offer.

None of the TOTE prices have changed tho, so still there to jump on

 

[pbg]

SIMO BROWNLOW HISTORY

SIMO BROWNLOW HISTORY

GREAT WORK MR C

EXCELLENT RESEARCH


JUST 1 NOTE OF WARNING HOWEVER ON YOUR PROP FOR ADAM SIMPSON.AS I AM SURE YOU ARE AWARE HE HAS A WOEFULL RECORD IN THE MEDAL IN PAST YEARS.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah........he has tended to be looked over by the umps in favour of the flashier Harvey & Grant.
But then again Buckley was ignored for years until recently.
:shrug:

I went back today for $500 more on Buckley to place. Your thoughts boosted my confidence Christo!! Should be a safe thing.

 

[bombercoops]

If Buckley doesn't place this year then there are serious issues with the brownlow system. He had way to good a season to be over-looked here surely and in saying that I am going to jump on that one myself pawa. Looking forward to turning over some $$ next week.

 

[MrChristo]

Sitting waiting patiently for these books to get their act together.......

Last year I had Simpson on 10, and Brent Harvey on 13.
They actually got 7 and 10 respectively.....so both a bit underdone by the umps.

He may indeed struggle to limp into 3rd, but I think he's tough to ignore at that price.

I see SportOdds have the most votes per team listed, so it will be interesting how much they differ from the TOTE.
Of course the advantage we have here is that we will be allowed multi's here

 

[alb]

Help out an ignorant Canadian. What is brownlow. I assume it has to do with AFL but do you mean prices @ tote.co.uk? I must be missing something here.

:shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Sorry, alb, but the prices are from the Australian TOTE.

http://www.tab.com.au/sportsbet/ (Feel free to delete if necessary.)

I assume you can join over the 'net, but I have real idea. I just physically use the outlets here in Oz for this particular 'book'.

The 'Brownlow Medal' is the AFL Best and Fairest. Each and every game of AFL is voted on by the umpires on a 3, 2, 1 system, where 3 votes goes to the best player on the day...etc.
The votes are locked away after they are done and held in complete secrecy until the night when they are counted.

That's why we get some great prices for various people....because the books (and everyone betting!) are really only guessing.

As I said at the start, tho, I've watched all the games and kept record of my own votes....And since I have had some experience as an umpire, I like to think I'll be reasonably close to the mark



Rightio.....Some specials up at SportOdds, and I should really learn to look before I leap! (although I was lost if I hesitated and was trying to make hay while the sun shone! )

They go 1.70 for Simpson to 'win' the Kanga's!!!
West @ 1.22, and Coughlan @ 1.53.
Nice little 3.17 treble

Also 2 head-to-heads there I really like, but waiting for Centrebet to get their act into gear.

Doesn't look like Bill Hurley @ Aus. Sportsbook is coming to the party this year :shrug:

PS. If any of you guys see a book with some specials def. jump in and let me know :toast:

 

[MrChristo]

D'OH!!!!!!!!!

D'OH!!!!!!!!!

No multi's allowed at SO

That effectively ruins all my fun there.

For those interested the good head-to-heads are:

Coughlan over Mitchell @ 1.90.
Fletcher over Cousins @ 2.20!!...(But taking Fletcher to win Eagles is effectively getting 5.00 for the same bet.)
Tredrea over Goodes @ 1.75. (Unfortunately, I'm not the only one who likes this bet, 'cause it opened at 1.85 but got cut very swiftly.)

BUT..............

Generous (but slack!) Centrebet have now got Simpson @ 34.00 for top 4!

Given no-one else looks like having any markets, that looks like it for me.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Well done MrC........

For those people who have no clue but can get on at these books.........get on!!!

The man knows his stuff.

It's gunna be a big Monday night

Bomber.......I'm sure the 'aussie connection' can keep you updated during the count.

 

[bombercoops]

Pawa, appreciate it mate! Would be good to have some sought of update throughout the night. Looks like there are some pretty inviting odds to jump on. :jump: :yup

 

[alb]

Thanks Mr. Christo......now just another question? I can bet the winner and top four finish at centrebet (UK). For top 4, I can get Simpson at 21.00 and Buckley at 1.55 (4.00 to win). Are any of these worth it?

 

[MrChristo]

No problems, alb.

LOVE Simpson Top 4....I got him at 34.00 earlier in the week.

I have 4 people vying for 3rd and 4th spots (but actually DO have Simpson 3rd), so the price is outstanding!

Buckley really should finish top 4. Seriously think he will be top 2.
Dunno if you have a BetFair account, but he is 1.95 for a top 3 finish there.

Thanks for the vote of confidence too, PAWA :toast:

Seems no-one else is taking any notice tho!! Goodes firming as Sydney's top vote getter......O'Loughlan out to an amazing 7.50 . J. Bolton @ 9.00. Might have a nibble at both of them.

I have Goodes anywhere from 4..10 votes!! BOG Rd. 1 and then he may or may not get a few 1's along the way!
O'Loughlan 11..13, Bolton 9..12.

Speaking of which Some head-to-heads @ Bill Hurley's Aus. Sportsbet:
Only one a really like involves guess who!! (God...If he actually gets a few votes he's a chance to send me bankrupt!).....

Ricciuto over Goodes @ 1.80. Every chance to get more than double

I think it's now safe to assume that neither Centrebet nor Canbet will have any specials.....So on that note....A quick recap:

5 x Simpson most for Kanga's (1.65) (1.70 available )
2 x Ricciuto over Goodes (1.87) (Got in early )
1 x Gardiner over Goodes/Fraser (2.90)
1 x Fletcher top Eagle (5.00)
1 x Simpson top 4 (34.00)
1 x Buckley/Voss quinella (5.00)
0.5 x O'Louglan top Swan (7.50)
0.5 x J.Bolton top Swan (9.00)

Good Luck gang

 

[MrChristo]

Well....Apparently Wednesday really means Thursday here in Oz :shrug:

Centrebet have finally done some head-to-heads....But to be honest most of them are quite close.....
...All except our old mate fom Sydney of course

Hird over Goodes @ 1.90 (13-15 votes to 4-10)
Bell over Hayes @ 1.55 (12-15 to 9-11)...Crap price.

Bit disappointed in the Hird price tbh, considering Goodes is 9.00 to win and Hird 21.00.
I'm much happier with my Ricciuto/Goodes bet, but for those with Centrebet accounts still looks a good thing.
(Also Ricciuto down to 1.73 now! )

 

[Pumpkin]

Haven't followed the form for the Brownlow too closely this year.

But surley so of the port midfielders are a big hope with Francou out (biggest vote winner the last two years) and James not playing anywhere near the level he has been. Nick Stevens looks well overs at $251. I know Tredrea and Wanganeen will attract votes, but Stevens has had a more influential year than before and He is Blond

 

[MrChristo]

Pumpkin.....

Pumpkin.....

...You might be right about the midfield picking up the slack, but I think you have the wrong guy.

I only have Stevens down for 9-11.
Peter Burgoine has 14-16 but is out due to suspension.
James actually has 10-12 in my opinion....as Josh Carr is 9-10.

Wanga 15-19 and Tredrea 17 are the guys.