Preview & outright plays:
Staged in Birmingham, Alabama, this is the birthplace of Hubert Green and his influence on this event is evident in more ways than one. He designed the Founders Course at the Greystone Golf & Country Club which has been the venue for the nine years of this championship and he even lifted the title himself in 1998. He is one of the nine different winners in the event's nine year history, so Larry Nelson would be breaking with tradition if the Alabama player were to add to his 1999 crown.
In a top-class field featuring Nelson, Morgan, Irwin, Fleisher and Kite there are the usual number of single-figure prices, though it is quite noticeable that the players on the next grade - Canizares, Doyle, Tewell - are also being at much smaller prices than in the past! The value of simply selecting Canizares, Doyle plus one other seems to be on the wane. Instead the outright picks this week are Gil Morgan, Jose Maria Canizares and Tom Jenkins.
Dr. Gil was never won this tournament though he has finished 2nd twice and lost the chance last year in a playoff to John Jacobs. He has the lowest scoring average of any player playing more than once in this event and is leading money winner despite being winless. He has played quite sparingly over the past couple of months and comes into this week having rested rather than played in Las Vegas. In a tight market, the odds are just long enough to make the win only play tempting.
Canizares seems to be the first name on the outright list every week and he has dropped to 12/1 at Surrey as a result. He has just one top-10 finish in his three visits (6th in 1998), but comes into this event with this game as competitive as it has been since the 1980s. He has finished in the top-4 of four of his last six events, winning the Toshiba Senior Classic and finishing with a late charge for 2nd place last week. Undaunted by the bigger 'name' players, he should be there or thereabouts on Sunday evening.
The long-shot of the week is Tom Jenkins who hopefully can secure a place finish. He did such a thing last year when he finished 4th, just three shots out of the playoff. He matched his season-best finish of 8th last week, but as a winner on Tour last year, he is certainly capable of producing a surprise this week.
Outright plays:
Gil Morgan to win 8/1 @
BetSmart
Jose Maria Canizares to win 16/1 @
BetSmart
Tom Jenkins to win 50/1 @
Surrey
No 72-hole or 1st round matchup plays
