Back early. Really liked Harvard before your endorsement. I think they will refocus and Brown is playing EXTREMELY shorthanded.
Thank, buddy. I'm there.
I hope you don't mind me chiming in. I was looking at the Harvard game as well, wanting to play it really bad based on my projections and the fact that Harvard is ranked #34 while Brown is #309. So I started to take a closer look at it. Several things that I?m factoring to determine how much I will wager on it: pace/scoring, the three point shooting and key injuries.
Pace/Score: you are asking Harvard to blow them out and keep total score at around 123 points. That means vegas is implying a score of 71.5 - 52. My projected scores show, 77-55, 73-45, 73-49, 72-46. Harvard will score more than 70. The question is will Brown score more than 50.
Off/Def Efficiencies: Harvard's defensive efficiency is ranked 19th and Brown's offensive efficiency ranking is #294. Moreover, Brown's 3pt scoring makes up 37% of their total points, which is the top 10 in the nation. While 23% of the points given up by Harvard are 3 pointers, which is one of the lowest in the nation. It will come down to how well Harvard can defend the three point line and if Brown is hitting threes or not.
You mentioned that Brown will be short-handed. I see that McGonagill is probable, are there any others? McGonagill is their main guy as 28% of possessions end with him, most on the team. If he doesn?t play then I love Harvard -20.
I also like that Harvard's last game was a hard loss at Princeton. They should show up.
BOL on your plays!!! :toast: