Buick Challenge

Stanley

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The last of the three Buick-sponsored PGA Tour events boasts a better field than in recent weeks with the likes of David Duval, Davis Love and Nick Price on view this week. That said, Duval has not played since the British Open, and Love and Price have been struggling with their game in recent months. However Duval and Love have local connections this week. Love is a Georgia resident with an excellent record in this event - three top-3 finishes in the last four years - and Duval spent his student days at Georgia Tech and has been in the top-10 in his last two visits. If we add Stewart Cink to the list as a Georgia resident, his three top-10 finishes in his last four visits suggests that like last week at the Texas Open, it is the local boys who play well in the Southern states.

One reason may be Bermuda grass greens which are on offer this week and are much more common in the South, but climactic differences also come into play. As La Cantera, Callaway Gardens is rather hilly with much made of the narrow fairways which helps to explain the strong showings of Fred Funk and Jeff Maggert here. However, the course compatibility stats suggest [see website for tables] that is very much a course for the ball-strikers, the greens in regulation specialists. With the last three winners being David Toms, Steve Elkington and Davis Love, that conclusion is reinforced.

It is David Duval who tops my ratings this week, but is unlikely to be a selection to win this event. Dependent on tee-times, odds of about 9/1 would be the benchmark for Duval this week, he will surely be too rusty to be competitive at this level. Similarly, concerns over Love's current form would make him a risky selection unless odds of 14/1 were available. Instead the player with the local connections and the best value is likely to be Franklin Langham. Previous performances can be ignored to some extent for he is a revelation this year. He has finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven tournaments and this would be his pinnacle of his late-season efforts.

Two others to look for will be Chris Perry and David Toms. 4th best in the field in greens in regulation and 15th in driving accuracy and putting average, Perry has the complete game to challenge every week. 2nd twice in his last four events and with a decent record in this event - he has never missed the cut in eleven years - he looks a good value contender. The same can be said for Toms who as defending champion is rather surprising to be quoted at 35/1 by LVSC. Another good ball-striker, he has consistently played well in the South and has shown over the past few months that he certainly capable of holding on to the trophy.

As ever, the final outright plays will not be made until the tee-times are known. Will have matchup plays tomorrow.
 

loophole

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hey stanley and dogs - thought i'd poke my nose in and say always enjoy reading your golf contrbutions each week here and elsewhere. recalling our earlier mentions of the old hooters' tour and its players, as majority of events were in southern venues and thus a solid mixture of bent and bermuda, one of the things that was obvious to me while caddying back then was that the southern boys always excelled on the bermuda. most of them that grew up on bermuda develop really aggressive putting styles conducive to making birdies and also develop that fine art of reading the "grain" of bermuda greens that has such a dramtic effect on judging speed and break. can't go wrong pushing them rebels on bermuda.


[This message has been edited by loophole (edited 09-26-2000).]
 

Stanley

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Couldn't agree with you more
smile.gif
Believe it played a major part last week because it had been such a long time since the Tour stopped at a Bermuda greens course. Should still be a factor this week.
 

Ian

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Best prices available so far on the outright

Duval 10-1
Leonard 12-1
Love III 12-1
Toms 25-1
Cink 33-1
Perry 33-1
Price 33-1
Langham 40-1

Cink has been the best backed so far, with some money for Azinger and Mattiace

(see profile for address)
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Check out lines @ $plays
eek.gif
Better go down to offshore section and pay my respects
biggrin.gif

--------------------------------------------
I concur also with your observation Loop.


[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 09-26-2000).]
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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two early plays @ 5dimes I think will move.
Duval (-135) over Begay
Cink -115 over Begay

The only -135 I can remember playing but if not for Duval withdrawing last out I would really love this play.
Last 30 day lapse for Begay was after Nissan Open.His 1st 2 back were cut-cut with rounds of 76-72 and 80-71.
Duval has taken month off frequently.Last 2 were after Masters and U.S. Open. He followed next out with 20th and 11th respectively. I am think these have good chance to be over at cut.
 

Stanley

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Early 72-hole plays:

David Duval to beat Notah Begay -133 @ Moneyplays [2 units] [same odds @ GoTo Casino & On-Line Casino]
Prolonged layoffs for both, but a return to college State for Duval should provide added incentive. Has been top-10 in last two visits, but Begay's swing should struggle with the hilly lies he will face last; struggled in only time on course

Chris Perry to beat Steve Flesch -118 @ Centrebet
Flesch disappointed in Pennsylvania and in his last visit here, looking for Perry to be ultra-consistent again

Chris Perry to beat Nick Price +100 @ Intertops
Price is not as competitive as he once was and having never played this course before, Perry should have the edge here
 

Stanley

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Outright plays:

Was surprised to find Duval available at 9/1 quite widely so will adopt Duval and drop Toms, though at these odds he is only a straight win play. There may be cobwebs in his game, but he is head and shoulders the best player in the field. The second outright play is Chris Perry, available e/w @ 25/1 with Victor Chandler and Paddy Power in particular as they pay on the first five places. The third play, and the second with a Georgia connection, is Franklin Langham who is an amazing 40/1 with Victor Chandler. When Sportfanatik are quoting him @ 15/1 in the futures for this event and they are not out of line with others, there is a very clear geographic difference of opinion on Langham. That is good news for us
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DOGS THAT BARK

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Did a little hedge bet that I will not count as play but played Begay to show(1st 4 places)3/1 @ Oly for 1/2 unit.Got to thinking bout Sutton accounting for 3 downers last week and want a little hedge in case Mr Murphy is hanging around this week.
 

Ian

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For what it's worth here are my selections for this week
Outright Langham 40-1,already on Cink 33-1 and Mattiace at 100-1
72 Hole Matchups
Perry over Price +100 Intertops
Lewis over Pate -111 Paddypower
 

Stanley

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1st round plays:

J.P. Hayes to beat Ted Tryba -120 @ Five Dimes
Jerry Kelly to beat Charles Howell -110 @ Five Dimes
Jerry Kelly to beat Steve Pate -115 @ Five Dimes
Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -115 @ Five Dimes
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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1st round
Hayes -120 over Tryba
better tee time--almost 4 times earnings--5 top 10's to no top 20--8 cuts vs 13 +WD.
Agree with Stan,appears to be bargain @ -120.
 

FatBoy

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lw:1-1 for +1.15x
ytd:28-33 for -2.30x

Waite -110 vs Chalmers for 2x @Carib
Funk -120 vs Lickliter @5Dimes for 1x
Leonard -130 vs Langham for 1x
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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1st round
Hayes loses to Tryba as Tryba shoot 5 under

Talk about Murphys law. It was Tryba low opening round in 32 events this year.He had only busted 70 in 5 opening rounds all year.
rolleyes.gif


72 holes looking better
Price/Begay up 2
Duval/Begay up 4
Cink/Begay up 5
Perry/Hoch down 2

Won 2 out of 3 of 3ball matches as Scherrer was lone loss at hands of Brooks,I'll keep pecking at em.I smell one coming
 

Stanley

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1st round update: 2-1-1 and +0.80 units

Tryba inflicted the only loss of the first round with his surprising 67 and three-shot defeat of Hayes; of the others, Kelly beat Howell by four and tied with Pate, while Love defeated Leonard by three. All three 72-hole plays are ahead at this stage: Duval by four over Begay, Perry by four over Flesch and by one over Price. Looking better than it did last week.


2nd round plays:

Chris Perry to beat K.J. Choi -170 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Jonathan Kaye to beat Chris DiMarco +105 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Nick Price to beat Steve Elkington +100 @ Sportbet
Fred Funk to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ Five Dimes
Chris Perry to beat Nick Price -125 @ Five Dimes
David Toms to beat Nick Price -110 @ Five Dimes
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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at the cut (Begay just stays alive on cut line.)
rolleyes.gif

72 holes
Price/Begay up 4
Cink/Begay up 4
Duval/Begay up 5
Perry/Hoch down 1
2nd round matchups
Price/Elk win by 5
Maruyama/Clark assuming loss
mad.gif


Do not see his name on board so am assuming he WD for loss.That is real bite in the ass
cause Clark hacked it as expected firing a big 79!In fact Clark only beat 1 person in entire field.

Correction: Begay ended -2 making cut by 2 I have corrected match scores



[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 09-29-2000).]
 

Stanley

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2nd round update: 3-3-0 and -0.35 units

Split the plays including the 3-unit plays. Perry won by five, but Kaye gave up on the back nine to miss the cut and lose to DiMarco by three
frown.gif
For the other plays, Price shot one of the rounds of the day to beat Elkington by five, but it meant that Perry lost to him by two and Toms by eight. Funk defeated Lickliter by two in the other play. All three 72-hole plays remain alive after 36 holes with Duval leading Begay by five, Perry leading Flesch by two and trailing Price by one.

Back in the morning with 3rd round plays.
 
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