Preview & outright plays ...
It has been well-documented that this is an event for Californians: the last four and seven of the last nine winners had had a local Californian connection. Somewhat less highlighted is the fact that five of the last seven winners have won Majors and of the two that remain, one is Phil Mickelson, the defending champion and the best current player yet to win a Major. After the distractions of 'giggle golf', this is a welcome return to sanity and an ability to concentrate. One feature remains from last week though: a multi-course format. Three of the four rounds will be played at the South Course and one at the North Course at Torrey Pines. Note, there is a big difference in difficulty between these two courses and that should open up some profitable opportunities for the first two days
With the longer South Course only marginally above 7,000 yards, there are no great benefits to power as the par-fives are generally reachable to the players. With just one water hazard on either course, this is quite a contrast to Pebble Beach, but again the Bentgrass greens are smaller than the Tour average and the good greens in regulation and scramble players play well in this event. None more so than Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson who both played this many times as a junior.
Tiger won six different times in four different age groups in the Junior World Championships at Torrey and his record as a pro reads: 3rd, 1st and 2nd. He does look irresistible this week at 2/1, but this was the event that broke his eleven consecutive wins record last year when he was a much stronger favorite. Will most likely win, but no real value in that price. This was the scene of Mickelson's maiden Tour appearance as a 17-year-old amateur in 1988 and his maiden Tour win in 1993. He followed that with 3rd in 1994, 2nd in 1996 and a win last year, but other than that, his record here is not that good. Even if he were not to suffer a reaction from his failure to hole a putt under pressure last week, then his day in hospital yesterday because of food poisoning should undermine his standing as 2nd favorite. According to his manager, "Phil is hopeful to completely recover in time to play in this week's Buick Invitational but is day-to-day, as per his doctor's orders.'' He has already withdrawn from the pro-am on Wednesday and from my capping list for this week.
Instead the three picks will be Davis Love, Tom Lehman and Chris Perry. At least I have one local in there! It was a long wait for Love's victory and hopefully he can now be a more predictable golfer without the shackles. It is noteworthy that he asked for a late entry after having won the AT&T so presumably his appetite has been whetted again and he returns to a course on which he has prospered. Over the past ten seasons, only Tiger Woods and Tom Lehman have a lower scoring average than Love. He won this event in 1996 and finished 3rd in 1998 and 4th last year. Has a definite chance of winning this event.
Lehman does have the 2nd best scoring record on this course in the 1990s, though maybe it should be remembered that he has not played here since 1996. But the fact that he has returned shows his renewed confidence after finishes of 9th, 26th, 2nd and 7th this season before last week's event. Last week's missed cut can be ignored - he shot 68 around Spyglass in the opening round only to become undone in a horror stretch around Pebble Beach. Amateurs & the ability to refocus come to mind! Should be a strong challenger for a place finish.
Finally, Chris Perry is much too good a player to be 66/1. He was 4th two years ago and looked to be slowly climbing back to his former level two weeks ago when finishing 13th in the Phoenix Open. He is not one to take many breaks, his ratio of top-5 finishes to events entered rose last year from 4 in 30 to 2 in 9 after taking a week off. A reasonable chance of a top-5 place finish.
Outright plays:
Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w @
First Stake
Tom Lehman to win 28/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler
Chris Perry to win 66/1 e.w. @
Surrey
