Buick Open
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
Two bets for me so far. Dudley Hart 66/1 Sportingodds. 4/6 the last two years in this event and in decent form.
Scott Verplank has 3 top 15 finishes in the last four years in this event. He was 13th in the Western Open and 4th at Hartford. I took some of the 49/1 available at Betfair yesterday.
Scott Verplank has 3 top 15 finishes in the last four years in this event. He was 13th in the Western Open and 4th at Hartford. I took some of the 49/1 available at Betfair yesterday.
We are on same page this week Clive. The five I have ticked include your Tway-Mayfair and Perry plus Sluman and Mediate.
Will see what the oddsmakers say before getting on.
Glen "all" Day may be long dark horse also?
Will see what the oddsmakers say before getting on.
Glen "all" Day may be long dark horse also?
DTB, would have loved to have sided with Mediate this week but he hasn't played well for quite a while now?
despite lack of form going for Mediate 1ew (66/1 Tote)..missed cut before winning this in 2000
Missed 66/1 Hart, but got 1ew 50/1 (UK Betting)..6/4 last two years..
Missed 66/1 Hart, but got 1ew 50/1 (UK Betting)..6/4 last two years..
Robert Gamez 125/1 Victor Chandler
A player who doesn't owe me anything! Supported each way at 80/1 in his last 2 outings which yielded superb places of 3rd then 2nd. Again ignoring his poor course form as he is obviously playing much better now. I also like the fact that he had last week off. I couldn't see him beating Tiger head to head... but a 3rd consecutive place would do very nicely....
Len Mattiace 80/1 Sportingbet
Unimpressive course form but again a player who this year is doing much better. A couple of wins on the board already in the Nissan & St Jude. The price just looks too tempting.
A player who doesn't owe me anything! Supported each way at 80/1 in his last 2 outings which yielded superb places of 3rd then 2nd. Again ignoring his poor course form as he is obviously playing much better now. I also like the fact that he had last week off. I couldn't see him beating Tiger head to head... but a 3rd consecutive place would do very nicely....
Len Mattiace 80/1 Sportingbet
Unimpressive course form but again a player who this year is doing much better. A couple of wins on the board already in the Nissan & St Jude. The price just looks too tempting.
Outrights will go on 2 now that I don't think odds will improve on
to place top 5 @ %dimes>Oly just dropping their lines now.
Mayfair to place 17/1
Tway to place 15/1
to place top 5 @ %dimes>Oly just dropping their lines now.
Mayfair to place 17/1
Tway to place 15/1
DRAT OLY opens both Tway and Mayfair 25/1 top $#%^%#$
adding to place top 4 @ Oly
Perry 12.5/1
Mediate 15/1
All outrights 1/2 unit to place only.
adding to place top 4 @ Oly
Perry 12.5/1
Mediate 15/1
All outrights 1/2 unit to place only.
Outright plays (1 unit):
Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Five Dimes (.5 units to win & .5 units to finish in top-5), though generally available
This event is traditionally played the week before the PGA Championship and as a result, it the longer odds players that traditionally win this event. It is easy to side-step the favourites and the 'w/o Woods' markets this week. First up is the very consistent Verplank. He has missed only two cuts in the last fifteen months and has won in each of the last two years. His record in this event is also encouraging. He won this event in 1988, has not been over-par in his last 14 rounds here and while he has missed the cut five times in his last ten starts at Warwick Hills (though not in the last two years), on the other five occasions he has finished no worse than 16th.
Jim Furyk to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Paddy Power
Another player to back on course form. He has made the cut on all his seven previous visits, finishing top-20 on five of those occasions and finished 2nd to Kenny Perry last year having been 1st round leader and no worse than 2nd at the end of each day. A concern could be his current form - he has missed his last two cuts. But a surprising trend has occurred in Furyk's finishes: since March, he has repeatedly missed two cuts then had two high finishes (including winning the Memorial Tournament) then two missed cuts and so on. Coming off two missed cuts, let's hope the trend continues. He was also coming off a missed cut and some indifferent June/July form last year before he came so close to winning.
Stuart Appleby to win 66/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Not quite the same course form with Appleby, though he has made the cut on his three previous visits and has been very much in contention over the weekend on his last two visits (1999 and 2001) before falling away on the Sunday. It is his current form that makes this price rather large though. His missed cut under the convoluted points system of last week can be ignored, particularly after it was his first event after losing in a playoff for the British Open. Having finished 5th in the Western Open in his previous event, he should not be this price.
Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Five Dimes (.5 units to win & .5 units to finish in top-5), though generally available
This event is traditionally played the week before the PGA Championship and as a result, it the longer odds players that traditionally win this event. It is easy to side-step the favourites and the 'w/o Woods' markets this week. First up is the very consistent Verplank. He has missed only two cuts in the last fifteen months and has won in each of the last two years. His record in this event is also encouraging. He won this event in 1988, has not been over-par in his last 14 rounds here and while he has missed the cut five times in his last ten starts at Warwick Hills (though not in the last two years), on the other five occasions he has finished no worse than 16th.
Jim Furyk to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds or Paddy Power
Another player to back on course form. He has made the cut on all his seven previous visits, finishing top-20 on five of those occasions and finished 2nd to Kenny Perry last year having been 1st round leader and no worse than 2nd at the end of each day. A concern could be his current form - he has missed his last two cuts. But a surprising trend has occurred in Furyk's finishes: since March, he has repeatedly missed two cuts then had two high finishes (including winning the Memorial Tournament) then two missed cuts and so on. Coming off two missed cuts, let's hope the trend continues. He was also coming off a missed cut and some indifferent June/July form last year before he came so close to winning.
Stuart Appleby to win 66/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Not quite the same course form with Appleby, though he has made the cut on his three previous visits and has been very much in contention over the weekend on his last two visits (1999 and 2001) before falling away on the Sunday. It is his current form that makes this price rather large though. His missed cut under the convoluted points system of last week can be ignored, particularly after it was his first event after losing in a playoff for the British Open. Having finished 5th in the Western Open in his previous event, he should not be this price.
Adding Mayfair at 100/1. It's been a while since his last top 10 finish but he's a a former winner and knows how to shoot low scores.
last one! 0.5 ew Henninger 200/1 (V Chandler), really only expecting the 50/1 a place, but fair odds of reward...
Matchup plays (1 unit):
Chris DiMarco to beat Rocco Mediate -110 @ BetInternet
Mediate may have a good record around this course, having won this event in 2000 and finished in the top-10 two more times in the past five years, but he is in poor form at the moment. DiMarco may not be close to his West Coast Swing form, but he still leads Mediate 3-0 in head-to-head matchups over the last 3 months and 11-3 over the past year. He also finished 2nd in this event last year.
Lee Janzen to beat Billy Mayfair +103 @ WIT
Opposing another former winner (1998) who is not in the best of form at the moment. He finished 5th in the WorldCom Classic and the U.S. Open, but to find another top-10 finish we would have to go back to the 2001 British Open. Janzen finished 6th last week, has two top-20 finishes in the last five years at Warwick Hills and leads Mayfair 6-1 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months.
Frank Lickliter to beat Ian Leggatt -125 @ Aces
Both top-10 last year, so siding with Lickliter on the basis of current form. He leads Leggatt 4-0 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months, including last week when he finished 7th.
Bob Tway to beat Jeff Maggert -137 @ Surrey
Maggert may have finished in the top-10 in the last two years here, but Tway has done so three times in the last six years and two of the other finishes have been top-25. Tway is also playing far better: he leads Maggert 5-1 in head-to-head matchups over the last three months with the solitary defeat at the U.S. Open which has no resemblance to the set-up at Warwick Hills.
Scott Verplank to beat Jeff Sluman -125 @ Centrebet
Good performance from Sluman in the Scandinavian Masters last week, but it can hardly be ideal preparation for this event or a substitute for playing in the British Open. Verplank continued his fine form in that event and comes to Michigan refreshed after a break. He's beaten Sluman three times in the last four years here and this year should make it four.
Chris DiMarco to beat Rocco Mediate -110 @ BetInternet
Mediate may have a good record around this course, having won this event in 2000 and finished in the top-10 two more times in the past five years, but he is in poor form at the moment. DiMarco may not be close to his West Coast Swing form, but he still leads Mediate 3-0 in head-to-head matchups over the last 3 months and 11-3 over the past year. He also finished 2nd in this event last year.
Lee Janzen to beat Billy Mayfair +103 @ WIT
Opposing another former winner (1998) who is not in the best of form at the moment. He finished 5th in the WorldCom Classic and the U.S. Open, but to find another top-10 finish we would have to go back to the 2001 British Open. Janzen finished 6th last week, has two top-20 finishes in the last five years at Warwick Hills and leads Mayfair 6-1 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months.
Frank Lickliter to beat Ian Leggatt -125 @ Aces
Both top-10 last year, so siding with Lickliter on the basis of current form. He leads Leggatt 4-0 in head-to-head matchups over the past three months, including last week when he finished 7th.
Bob Tway to beat Jeff Maggert -137 @ Surrey
Maggert may have finished in the top-10 in the last two years here, but Tway has done so three times in the last six years and two of the other finishes have been top-25. Tway is also playing far better: he leads Maggert 5-1 in head-to-head matchups over the last three months with the solitary defeat at the U.S. Open which has no resemblance to the set-up at Warwick Hills.
Scott Verplank to beat Jeff Sluman -125 @ Centrebet
Good performance from Sluman in the Scandinavian Masters last week, but it can hardly be ideal preparation for this event or a substitute for playing in the British Open. Verplank continued his fine form in that event and comes to Michigan refreshed after a break. He's beaten Sluman three times in the last four years here and this year should make it four.
Cheers DTB 
Had to try a new angle if I'm to break out of my PGA Tour slump
BTW currently in preparation stages with a 3rd party for a real kick-ass golf stats resource for the 2003 season :brows:
Had to try a new angle if I'm to break out of my PGA Tour slump
BTW currently in preparation stages with a 3rd party for a real kick-ass golf stats resource for the 2003 season :brows:
What does BTW mean Stan. Can't wait to find out what the kick-ass golf stats about either.
On to this week, initially I thought that Dudley was the man but I missed the price, so no play on him. I think that 33/1 is to short.
I like Skip Kendall but his heart really flutters in the closing stretch. Steve Stricker is playing a bit more consistently at the moment but I can not see his name in the tee off times. Is he a non runner?
I have settled in the end for Joel Edwards. He has not any real course form but I get the feeling his form is about to explode.
Carl Paulson was an outsider with place prospects.
On to this week, initially I thought that Dudley was the man but I missed the price, so no play on him. I think that 33/1 is to short.
I like Skip Kendall but his heart really flutters in the closing stretch. Steve Stricker is playing a bit more consistently at the moment but I can not see his name in the tee off times. Is he a non runner?
I have settled in the end for Joel Edwards. He has not any real course form but I get the feeling his form is about to explode.
Carl Paulson was an outsider with place prospects.
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This week's fiasco . . .
OUTRIGHTS @ 0.20*:
Gamez(100/1)
Goosen(28/1)
Verplank(33/1)
P. Price(23/1)
Donaldson(60/1)
Lawrie(20/1)
B. Wadkins(28/1)
Moodie(45/1)
Diaz(33/1)
OUTRIGHTS @ 0.10*:
Tataurangi(135/1)
MATCHUPS @ 1*:
Mattiace(+115) over Kelly (Tournament)
GROUPS @ 0.50*:
Goosen(9/2) over Mickelson/Toms/Singh/Verplank (Tournament)
THURSDAY 3 BALLS @ 0.50*:
Perry(13/8) over Furyk/Azinger
Mattiace(7/4) over Mayfair/Choi
O'Meara(9/2) over Woods/Weir
Perks(5/2) over Kelly/Janzen
Lickliter(6/4) over Damron/Sutton
Contemplating next week's major fiasco . . .
Norman(140/1); Els(14/1); Maruyama(66/1); and Lonard(90/1)
GL
OUTRIGHTS @ 0.20*:
Gamez(100/1)
Goosen(28/1)
Verplank(33/1)
P. Price(23/1)
Donaldson(60/1)
Lawrie(20/1)
B. Wadkins(28/1)
Moodie(45/1)
Diaz(33/1)
OUTRIGHTS @ 0.10*:
Tataurangi(135/1)
MATCHUPS @ 1*:
Mattiace(+115) over Kelly (Tournament)
GROUPS @ 0.50*:
Goosen(9/2) over Mickelson/Toms/Singh/Verplank (Tournament)
THURSDAY 3 BALLS @ 0.50*:
Perry(13/8) over Furyk/Azinger
Mattiace(7/4) over Mayfair/Choi
O'Meara(9/2) over Woods/Weir
Perks(5/2) over Kelly/Janzen
Lickliter(6/4) over Damron/Sutton
Contemplating next week's major fiasco . . .
Norman(140/1); Els(14/1); Maruyama(66/1); and Lonard(90/1)
GL
