Butler/Wisc-GB

[nchiappetta]

Seems like a lot are on Wisc-GB. I am second-guessing my Butler play, but still think its the right side. Wisc-GB has just too many red flags/losses that they shouldn't have lost and I can't trust them on which Wisc-GB team will come out to play.

Anyone with any insight onto why everyone is all over Wisc-GB, I would like to hear it. Thanks!

 

[zebbers]

I'm playing WGB since butler will be too busy thinking up ways to not get spanked by my flashes on saturday.

Just kidding Should be a good bracket buster game, I'm looking forward to it.

 

[zebbers]

A real answer. WGB is 10-2 at home, one of those losses to Michigan state the other (somehow) to Cleveland state. Butler is 4-6 on the road and has suffered some losses to subpar teams while away. They also only beat WGB by 6 when they hosted them earlier and I think WGB adjusts and either wins SU or keeps it close. And, in all seriousness, I do think there is some look ahead to Kent State on saturday... I don't know how often Butler gets to play on national tv but I'd imagine it isn't that often and that may be a factor.

IMHO Butler could come out swinging and knock WGB around but I think it's a good handicap percentage that WGB wins with or without the points.

 

[nchiappetta]

Butler is 4-6 on the road and has suffered some losses to subpar teams while away. They also only beat WGB by 6 when they hosted them earlier and I think WGB adjusts and either wins SU or keeps it close.

I agree with some of what you are saying. But let me say if you are taking Wisc-GB, you are basically saying they are going to win out-right. Whenever we take a dog of +4 or less, we are basically saying this team will win outright. There is ALWAYS the much lower percentage chance that a low dog will lose but cover in a one possession game, but to say a team will keep it close enough to cover is somewhat of a bold statement of prediction. If you think Wisc-GB wins, then I suggest backing them, but with the way teams foul at the end, if Butler wins this, they will cover.

On another note on what I have read and you included in your reasoning, Wisc-GB is very good at home, only losing to MSU and Clev St. If this is the case, then why is Butler opening as 4 point favorite? Doesn't anyone think this seems like Wisc-GB should be the small favorite as opposed to Butler, especially after Butler loses their last game and Wisc-GB wins their last 2 at home pretty easily? Something seems up and as why I am on Butler.

Any other discussion appreciated.

 

[gjn23]

I agree with some of what you are saying. But let me say if you are taking Wisc-GB, you are basically saying they are going to win out-right. Whenever we take a dog of +4 or less, we are basically saying this team will win outright. There is ALWAYS the much lower percentage chance that a low dog will lose but cover in a one possession game, but to say a team will keep it close enough to cover is somewhat of a bold statement of prediction. If you think Wisc-GB wins, then I suggest backing them, but with the way teams foul at the end, if Butler wins this, they will cover.

On another note on what I have read and you included in your reasoning, Wisc-GB is very good at home, only losing to MSU and Clev St. If this is the case, then why is Butler opening as 4 point favorite? Doesn't anyone think this seems like Wisc-GB should be the small favorite as opposed to Butler, especially after Butler loses their last game and Wisc-GB wins their last 2 at home pretty easily? Something seems up and as why I am on Butler.

Any other discussion appreciated.

wish your theory applied on sat to:

GW -4
UW -4
BYU -3.5

all won but didnt cover
and of course i lost all three bets

 

[nchiappetta]

Yeah it does happen, but I am just saying, its very hard to predict when a team will lose but win ATS when the line is 4 or less. So, you better have the mentality that a dog of this caliber can win outright if you want to back them and win the bet and not thinking that the team will lose but cover.

I also had GW as a key play!!!

 

[zebbers]

As you see...I said WGB can take them straight up.

My UCLA +3.5 was tasty this weekend as well.
3-4 pt spreads do matter, though somewhat less than larger ones (obviously). I'd be 100% with you for 1-2pt spreads but we agree anyways as I think WGB has a chance to win straight up (and I threw a little on the ML for that).

As for why Butler is favored....they have a better record and have beaten better teams. The betting public will have them as a favorite and indeed, in a sense, they are the favorite. As you say -3 isn't much and in fact it is a huge correction for a Butler team that was favored -14 in the first matchup between these two teams.

This isn't a big play for me, but I love talking about my choices and reasoning! Good luck with your calls.

 

[nchiappetta]

I do hear your points. I guess it came out slightly wrong...I do think 3-4 point spreads matter, as can be seen by several instances this weekend, but i usually just think that if the confidence in a small dog is enough to back them, there better be the possibility they can win out-right. And you did say that my saying Wisc-GB might take the SU win.

I too question what side the betting public looks at favorably in this matchup. I tend to think of one of the gold rules "a bettor's memory is only as good as the last game" meaning that the last game or two performance is only what a majority of the public goes back to look at or even remembers, as opposed to the entire resume. This is one of the reasons I am looking at Butler as opposed to Wisc-GB.

For the more careful cappers, as I would like to think most of us here are, I would think the linesmaker is after us more than the average joe. Under this assumption, I would think that this +3.5 would definitely favor Wisc-GB because of the performances at home and some questionable road losses by Butler.

Now, the question is, who is the LM after, the public or the more careful bettor? I guess volume-wise, the public, but the seasoned cappers are more accurate in hitting the books for larger amounts.

I too just like to toss back and forth chat on picks and hear what everyone has to say, so good luck in your pick as well (EXCEPT for Wisc-GB!!...think I am still going with Butler here, but am starting to question my thinking).

 

[Joehoya]

I like playing lesser-known teams that are playing at home on national television. It seems the crowd is particularly pumped and it energizes the home team. Based on this, and your other points, I'm leaning toward WGB, too.