Invy,
I was speakin' totally from memory (which can be dangerous for me) on that Carolina angle. So when I seen your response I got a little nervous. Anyway, I went diggin' through my old crap (I really gotta get more organized) anda pitchera martinis later I found this.
Teams that were ATS winners in their previous game but losers SU, that are now favored on the road are 13-1-1 (92.9%) 6yrs thru '97
The really amazing thing though is, as I was diggin' this baby up I think I uncovered some freakin' dinosaur bones!
Sorry the crap is so old, it seems like a buncha years just vanished on me there in the mid-90's (damn crystal meth). Not as many as I lost back there in the early seventies acourse, but still ...
Anyway, I checked and I do have the angle covering this year in week 2/3 (first week after the tragedy) with PHI -2? @ SEA winning 27-3. They had lost but covered 17-20 (+3?) in their previous game, Opening Day vs STL in OT (hey! what was that OT Dawg deal again?).
Basically I. Ex., you had it right, except it doesn't have to be a home dog. Any dog that loses but covers, then goes to road chalk qualifies. After seein' what you found (or didn't find) I'm afraid that I mighta quit trackin'the bastid simply because the situation had become extinct.
Your turn to start diggin' again, man. Good luck!
Christ, now what am I gunna do with alla these old freakin' bones.