Byron Nelson Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Ernie Els to win 10/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not a good sight when four players are at single figure odds for a PGA Tour event, but at Stan James (and Ladbrokes) have pushed Els out to 10s. I'll bite at that price. He was 4th last time he played here, holds the course record of 61 around Cottonwood Valley and has finished 2nd in the Masters and 3rd in the Heritage in his last two starts. He is edging very close to win #3 of the year.

Scott Verplank to win 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Not exactly optimistic that the next two selections are capable of winning against the top four players in the world, but they have both got a good record in this event. Verplank has finished in the top-four in two of the last three years here and while his form has dipped in the last month, he could certainly sneak a place finish in his native State. Would prefer the place-only odds, but 15/2 is rather skimpy when 50/1 e.w. is on offer.

Nick Price to finish in the top-five 11/1 @ SkyBet
Price retains his place as a selection after missing out on a place win last week solely because of a very poor first round. Even more than Verplank, he has an excellent record around these courses - top-15 in each of the last five years and he is the leading money winner in this event with $1.5 million. He is certainly capable of finish in the top-5 for the third time in four years.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes ties lose
K Perry -111 over Daly

 

[redsfan]

DTB

That surelooks tasty.
Which book?
Cannot locate on my radar

 

[veride]

EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 :

Mike Weir --> 40/1 Victor Chandler
Fredrick Jacobson --> 66/1 Victor Chandler
John Huston --> 66/1 Victor Chandler
Steve Flesh --> 80/1 Victor Chandler
Luke Donald --> 80/1 Paddy Power
Jeff Maggert --> 125/1 Paddy Power

Place Only - First 5 :

Scott Verplank --> 7/1 SkyBet
Kenny Perry --> 10/1 Paddy Power
Nick Price --> 11/1 SkyBet
Briny Baird --> 20/1 SkyBet
Peter Lonard --> 25/1 SkyBet

To Finish in the Top 10 :

Hal Sutton --> 14/1 Paddy Power

Win Only :

Ernie Els --> 10/1 Expekt

 

[Stanley]

Looks tasty to me as well

Matchup plays (3pts):

Kenny Perry to beat John Daly -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Still routinely opposing Daly who will either finish in the top-10 or the bottom-10 over the weekend if he makes it that far. He has failed to make the cut in his last three visits with a best finish of 29th in this event and that was over a decade ago. Perry may not be as entertaining, but he is a much more profitable to back.

Luke Donald to beat Joe Ogilvie -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Almost winning the HP Classic does not make Ogilvie a promising player on this Tour and reversion back to mean is expected. He trails Donald 2-6-0 h2h this year and has a poor record on this course. Donald should repeat his top-20 performance of last year.

John Huston to beat Mark Hensby -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]
Hensby has missed his last two cuts, he missed the cut on his only previous start in this event and he has finished ahead of Huston only once in the last three years. Just looks like a mismatch to me!

 

[veride]

EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 :

Mark Hensby --> 125/1 Victor Chandler

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sorry bout that Redsfan ---Glad Stan took care of it before any line movement. --and ditto on Donald there, Stan --went same route unofficially--

Was going to pass again on outrights--then saw Jacobson @ 15/1 place @ 5 Dimes--made wager and now I don't see him listed in tee times

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I know its not Florida but I like Huston this weekend. He has played well here and with seven tour wins will not be intimidated by the big four.

Huston 1u ew 100-1 (SportingBet; 80 now)

I'm having a tough time this week with the new course in China and the big four playing in America....seems like a tough week. I'll probably play a small wager on Verplank.....maybe he can surprise?

Verplank 1u ew 33-1 (Bet365)....Okay i'm on.

:shrug:

GL

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5)

F Jacobson 80/1 @ Blue Square
S Maruyama 80/1 @ TotalBet
N Price 80/1 @ TotalBet
S Verplank 50/1 @ PaddyPower
B Crane 150/1 @ Sporting Odds
N Begay 125/1 @ Victor Chandler

Also interested in Maggert, Donald, Hensby & Weir.

Good Luck!

I see that Jacobson has now withdrawn - pity, as I thought he'd go well.

 

[spits]

OK...I don't usually make wagers such as this one, but I feel we have definite value playing Tiger Woods to win the EDS Byron Nelson Classic this weekend.

Now I know that Tiger is going through a stretch of inconsistency that we have not seen before in his career. Nevertheless, he is still the #1 ranked golfer in the world.

Furthermore, let's take a look at his track record at this tournament throughout his career:

1997: 1st (-17)
1998: T12 (-8)
1999: T7 (-9)
2000: T4 (-10)
2001: T3 (-14)
2002: 3rd (-10)
2003: DNP

So thus, in 6 visits to this course he has shot -68 over 6 tournaments or
-11.33. His average finish has been 5th.

To make matters even more intriguing, due to Woods' recent slump, the books are offering us 6 to 1 odds (+600) that Woods wins the tournament.

Tiger hasn't won a stroke play tournament as of yet this year and you know that he feels he let one slip away this past weekend at the Wachovia.

Me thinks that Tiger wins this one with ease on a track he has had great success with.

$100 to win $600

SPITS

 

[lal2000]

Some Doubles for the weekend. All with SkyBet.

LeonardMarksaeng
Verplank/Zhang
Price/McGinley
Mickleson/Choi
Garcia/Randhawa
Donald/Cejka
Flesch/Kennedy
Leonard/Rashell
Franco/Marksaeng
Verplank/Randhawa
Price/Cejka
Garcia/Zhang


Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts):

Jerry Kelly to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ SIA
Nick Price to beat Zach Johnson -130 @ Centrebet

 

[Another Steve]

The Nelson Plays

The Nelson Plays

Ernie Els WINS BYRON NELSON+9.00
Ernie Els OV/Phil Mickelson+1.10

Going to pull the trigger with Ernie, like the way he Plays these courses. Philly likes Texas, think Els gets the best of him.

Nick Price OV/Scott Verplank-1.15
Nicky leading Money leade at this Tourney.

Mike Weir OV/Stuart Appleby-1.30
Chad Campbell OV/Chris DiMarco-1.45
Going with the Chalk here. Just like these Plays against these players.

Next Week Colonial
GLTA

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Fredrik Jacobson(66/1) - OUT
Luke Donald(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Notah Begay(125/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Mike Weir(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Steve Flesch(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

Stan's initial point is well taken: "Not a good sight when four players are at single figure odds for a PGA Tour event . . ." And it should come as no surprise that on the basis of all up to the moment evidence, Phil Mickelson still earns my unwavering support when matched up against any elite circle of world class players, regardless of whether the test is Bermuda greens or a Scottish links or a pitch and putt muni . . .

If the crew I've opted for this week is way off base, and is unable to secure any strong positions on the leaderboard come Saturday and Sunday, then I'll really be scratching my head about what I've seen over the last couple of weeks, what I know about the Nelson venues, and what clues I should be weighing in my capping of this stretch of the season . . . Jacobson here and now and priced back in the pack was absolutely at the top of my list for going well this week . . . When Mike Weir has shown he is putting the ball in the fairway and making his share of putts, he has not given me any reason to doubt his ability to polish up a bit of general rust and sloppiness and heat up with his pin seeking wedge and short iron play; flying under the radar in terms of prevailing expectations is kind of new and exciting as well . . . No surprise here that Luke Donald's strides as a player are keeping pace with the prime suspects among his young peers from the ranks of the European, Nationwide and PGA Tours, although I confess to some trouble in picking the spots when he goes well and when he fares poorly . . . I don't think the odds are 125 to 1 against in speculating on whether Notah Begay has tapped into some juices that are of the variety that would be much in demand if they could be bottled and sold . . . It's hard to deny that Steve Flesch is streaky good and streaky not so good; the timing elements in his swing, and confidence and temperment levels in his nature, seem to contribute substantially to that state of affairs. In fueling the flow of Flesch's game in either direction at any given moment, an eyeball to eyeball pairing with Woods in the crucible of his entourage can suit my purposes quite well . . . Sluman, Stricker, Lowery, Maggert, Waldorf, Sutton and Janzen are the names I've ticked in a search for peers likely to respond to the Joey Sindelar win with a "What about me?" type of performance, and I probably would have been quick to seize upon any juicy angles or connections I could have uncovered in trying to single out someone on or off that list to ride with this week . . .


MATCHUPS:

Mickelson(+300) over Woods/Singh/Els/Weir (Tournament) for 0.75* e.w. @ Bet365

GL

 

[Whalers Rule]

Begay seems to keep it going when he plays well

Begay 125-1 e.w top 5
Allenby 50-1 e.w top 5
Garcia 52-1 e.w top 4

Tourny plays

Allenby -110 over Leonard Olympic
Gamez -108 over Frazar 5dimes

First round

Perry +168 over Daly/Toms
Allenby +150 over Dimarco/Funk

 

[lostinamerica]

Two putzes for this putz:

Peter Lonard(20/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

Maggert(-115) over Lickliter (2nd Round) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Sunday at the Nelson

Sunday at the Nelson

Tiger Woods OV/Vijay Singh-1.20

Believe Tiger will have the taste in his mouth. VJ is the defending Champ but Tiger is close and wants to end the talk of Golf and Trim.

Luke Donald OV/Briny Baird-1.10

No real reason, both Players are playing well, just like Luke to beat Briny.

 

[lostinamerica]

998 posts on the forum,
998 posts,
Cap and wager, click submit,
999 posts on the forum.


SUNDAY:

Maruyama(-118) over Johnson for 1* @ 5dimes
Kuehne(+150) over DiMarco (Ties lose) for 1* @ Bet365
Begay(-105) over Beckman for 1* @ 5dimes
Donald(-110) over Baird for 1* @ Infinity

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

unbelievable void of wind yesterday and a tad projected for today. Not playing like the course of old and am quite clueless on today. Couldn't find one book with course mismatches on Friday--they are getting much more adapt Plays been thin all week.
Should be exciting though.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Should be very exciting indeed. Took some 99-1 this morning on Hart. Hopefully he can make a run.