Canarias Open de Espa?a

[gethman]

Posting these plays early, as I think prices may move on both. Will post thoughts later in the week.

Bradley Dredge, 25/1, SportingOdds, 2 Pts E/W

Nick Dougherty, 100/1, Bet365, 0.75 Pts E/W

Jean Francois Remesy to beat Maarten Lafeber, 8/11, SportingOdds, 1 Point

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Bradley Dredge to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Very capable player, particularly with respect to the rest of the field, and while he has not rediscovered the form of 2002-03, he is still a player who tends to feature if not directly contend. In four of his last five events, he has finished in the top-15 so he is not far from being a potential winner. He has a good record around the Iberian Peninsula and should be at lower odds.

Stephen Gallacher to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Gallacher looked very impressive on Sunday and while he finished behind Gonzalez, I have no hesitation in backing him at this price this week. He had finished in the top-10 in Qatar and returned to the Tour last week after the birth of his daughter and showed no rustiness at all. His record in this event is not impressive, but this is a new course and it was only some incredible luck with Gonzalez's errant drives that denied him victory on the Spanish mainland at the weekend.

Greg Owen to win 50/1 e.w. @ Coral
Rodiles at 100/1 is tempting for a player returning from a rib injury but who still commands one of the Ryder Cup places, but Owen gets the third berth instead. He finished 5th in his last event in Spain - the 2003 Volvo Masters - and was 3rd in this event on the Canary Islands two years ago. He needed to play well in the wind that week, just as he did in the two Middle East events last month when he finished in the top-10 both times. The wind should blow this week and that should suit Owen.

 

[matchmaker]

Good Luck Lads
New course,so anything can happen.So Im having a small bet on a "Dog"

MICHAEL JONZON
0.25 Unit E/W @ 200-1 [Totalbet,1/4 12345]

Has had problems with injury"s etc in his career.But the Swede qualified from the Challenge tour last season,and although results havnt been great including missing the cut last week,he has shot some nice rounds and if he can make a solid start on Thursday,could very well cause an upset.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

This week.....

Dredge 25 1u ew
Gallacher 28 1u ew

Left these on the table.....
Siem & Remesey

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

I could not have been much more wrong with my guesses about what to expect regarding the course at Sevilla, and this week will surely serve up another head scratcher.

Terry Price(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
A distinguished run of solid ball striking and an experienced hand at shaping shots that seems a formula for success on a par-70 track designed and carved to be defended by the constant buffeting of ocean breezes. Real evidence of a valedictory campaign in the works. Maybe still hampered by a sore neck. Tinges of a most profitable profile in 2004 of those doing an exceptional job of of getting right back in contention after going close in their prior outing. http://foxsports.news.com.au/story/0,8659,9175550-23213,00.html With the challenge of capping a course I've never seen, those are angles enough for me to grasp, including some 66/1 at 5dimes.

Robert Karlsson(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Twice a winner in Spain and he looked quite appealing enough in his last outing to hazard a play, plus the big man has some short game skills to carry some fanciful Ryder Cup aspirations, although I suspect a longer course with a par of 72 would be somewhat better suited.

Stephen Gallacher(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Caution was very much factored in my analysis in looking at players arriving here after thrashing about for three days against relentless winds in Sevilla, but Stan tapped the reasoning for riding with young Gallacher again this week. But I'm not enamored about the prospects of two outright selections from the same 3-ball pairing.

Gallacher earned the nod over Haeggman by somehow overcoming my better judgment, and Nick Dougherty and Peter Hedblom also earned very real consideration.


MATCHUPS:

Price(-115) over Ferrie (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

Dredge(-115) over Jaidee (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

David Park to beat Nick Dougherty -110 @ SkyBet
Dougherty has shown some markedly improved form in the last two events - presumably because of regaining strength after glandular fever - yet he still finished behind Park who finished inside the top-10 on both occasions. In fact, Park has finished ahead of Dougherty in their last six common events this year, so I'll oppose a revitalised Dougherty for another week.

Thomas Levet to beat Gregory Havret -120 @ SkyBet
Simply siding with the better player. Havret has struggled on the Canary Islands in the last two years, shooting 80-80 over the weekend two years ago and while he has had two top-10 finishes this year, his next-best finish has been 45th. Levet has had four top-20 finishes in eight starts in 2004 and showed in the 2002 British Open that he is comfortable playing in wind.

Nothing else of interest this week.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5)

G Rojas 200/1 @ SkyBet
M A Martin 125/1 @ Blue Square
J M Lara 50/1 @ Sporting Odds
N Dougherty 125/1 @ Victor Chandler
K Eriksson 150/1 @ Victor Chandler
J Spence 150/1 @ Sporting Odds

Also interested in Carriles, Hedblom, Luna and Rodiles

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

Mixed Doubles ? an assortment of futile attempts to defy the odds. All at SkyBet or Blue Square.

Hensby/Dredge
Couples/Gallacher
Jeonard/Owen
Choi/S Hansen
Haas/Eriksson
Haas/Haeggman
Baird/Karlsson
C Howell/Gonzales
C Howell/Haeggman
Ames/Jaidee
Daly/Remsey
Kuehne/Olazabel
Ogilvey/Hedblom
Calcavecchia/Spence
Rose/Hedblom
Allenby/J M Lara
Baird/Siem

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

3-BALLS (Thursday):

Haeggman(+200) over Gonzalez/Jaidee for 1* @ Bet365
- I'll need this to hit in order to have the nerve to post my four afternoon 3-Balls in Houston: Choi-Hoch-Calcavecchia-Beem.

**********************************************

lal: A friend of mine with more money than I'll ever see is financing a very modest joint venture on some longshot parlays I come up with - $82 on 11 parlays with odds of 577/1 to 3416/1 so far for this week. Last week was looking pathetic until the dust settled, after which my Cink/Pe.Lawrie ticket made the effort look a little less futile. Not too surprisingly, none of my plays for this week matched the seventeen you posted, but then I picked out those of yours I liked best, so now we are joining you with Choi/S.Hansen, Baird/Karlsson and Rose/Hedblom.

GL

 

[lal2000]

LIA

What a vote of confidence - hope one of these comes in ? Baird/Karlsson is a particularly tasty one.

I have decided that for the next few months I am going to be devoting considerably more resource to the parlay action - I'm giving up the ponies completely for the time being and focusing much more on the golf - the risk reward ratios are much more appealing, the variables more limited and the stats easier to digest. I am committing quite a considerable sum each week to the parlays - several hundreds of $$s ? am looking to place between 15-20 bets for each weekends action. I am not posting every one I do and the amount wagered on each varies depending on the odds. Most are placed with SkyBet, Victor Chandler, Blue Square or SportingOdds ? they tend to provide the best average odds over the field.

Your friend?s financing of long shot parlays is uncannily like something I?m working on over here. Interestingly, some of my colleagues are keen to participate in what I have described as an ?investment pool? which would take units in a range of weekly parlay bets ? the bigger the pool the wider the spread of bets that can be made at decent wagers. I?ll let you know if this takes off.

Good Luck!

LT

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Jose Manuel Lara(25/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
- Very well positioned among the Spanish contingent, and fairly well suited for the test presented.

Not having given the matter the study it requires, I was going to coattail Stan with Purtzer-Weibring-Levi on the Champions Tour (without posting the plays), but when I went to do just that a short while ago I was surprised to find they were underway early this morning. I hope that means more for you, Stan!

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

SUNDAY:

Gallacher(+125) over Sandelin/Andersson for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-1; +0.06pts

Dredge 5th
Gallacher 16th
Owen dns

Small profit as Dredge tied for Sandelin for 5th place. Pity he didn't birdie the easy par-five 17th hole to finish in the tie for 2nd place and that neither selection started playing until the 2nd round.

Matchups - Final update: 1-1-0; -0.20pts

Park/Dougherty WON by 16
Levet/Havret LOST by 14

Didn't find too much value in these week's matchups, so a split seems a fair enough outcome.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-13; -5.06pts
Matchups: 11-10; -0.43pts

 

[lal2000]

For anyone pondering why the European Tour has been so tricky when it comes to picking winners, the article on the back of this link has some interesting thoughts which seemed worth sharing - as I scratch my head and look forward to next week.

http://www.pgatour.com/story/7284762

LT

 

[gethman]

Outrights : 3-11 +50.50 Points

Matchups : 2-0 + 1.63 Units

Profitable week on the Euro Tour, again, but sad to see Dredge could not post a better final round, as I was pretty confident of a win after his round on Saturday, knowing that a David Park collapse was pretty likely.