Canarias Open de Espana

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Bradley Dredge to win 14/1 e.w. @ BlueSq, Boyle and BetDirect
Very hard to leave out in this form. Not at his best last week, but still it still took three chip-ins by Jacobson in the final round to deny him at least a place in the playoff. He did play in this event last year so he does have experience of local conditions in the Canary Islands even if the course is a new one and he finished in the top-5 in the two events in mainland Spain at the end of last season.

Jamie Donaldson to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Passed over last week when in the top-10 of my rankings, so will try not to miss out again. He had shown good form in the Middle East and in Australia this year before finishing 2nd alongside Dredge last week, but his performance under the pressure of the final day was particularly impressive last week. Like Dredge he played in this event last year and that should be of some benefit. Looks a good prospect to even a return if in contention on Sunday.

Greg Owen to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Centrebet
Last Sunday Owen showed why he is one to avoid on a each-way basis. It was impressive that he remained in contention after finally losing the lead and even regained it once again with three holes to play, but once again he faded. There may be a reaction this week, but he did follow his 3rd place finish in the 2002 Algarve Open de Portugal with 3rd place in this event last year and maybe history will repeat itself. Either way, his form is good, he has good memories of competing in the Canaries and 10/1 is too large for a player who has put himself into contention so many times.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -118 @ Expekt
The last thing Derksen needed was a three-week break in the European Tour schedule. He had just beaten Ernie Els to win the Dubai Desert Classic and finished 6th in the Madeira Island Open ... but shot 81-79 to finish almost last in the last week's event. Gonzalez makes his first start since Australia, but is the far better player, particularly now that Derksen has lost his momentum, and leads 9-3-0 h2h over the past year.

Sergio Garcia to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -138 @ Bet365
Take the Masters out of the equation and Olly's best finish this year in an event with a cut is 65th and the Costa Adeje course will bear little resemblance to Augusta. Garcia leads 4-2-0 h2h in all events this year and while he is also struggling with his game, he is the far better player. It was this event in 2001 that kick-started his season after a similarly poor opening few months.

 

[milpalm]

Dredge 14/1 (Lads)
Davis 22/1 (Bet365)
Kingston 64/1 (Betfair)

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5 units):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Graeme McDowell -118 @ Easybets
McDowell has struggled this year on the European Tour just just one cut form his last three events and his brief journey to the PGA Tour beforehand was unequally unproductive: just one cut in three events and each time he finished behind Donaldson. Just can't see any reason for it to be different this week.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Andrew Marshall -111 @ BetandWin
Opposed Marshall last week and he duly missed the cut. He did manage to finish 70th in the Canaries last year, but that was nine strokes behind Kjeldsen who hasn't missed a cut in his last ten events. It should take a big week from Marshall to deny this match.

Richard Sterne to beat Marcel Siem -111 @ William Hill
It was a career week from Siem last week and the pressure showed. He did finish 8th to follow up his 11th place finish in the Madeira Island Open after having missed his previous four cuts, but he is far from a consistent player. Sterne has beaten him in each of the three events in Europe that they have entered together and looks a very good prospect.

1st round plays (1.5 units):

Sergio Garcia to beat Bradley Dredge -125 @ Five Dimes
Brian Davis to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five Dimes
Ian Poulter to beat Darren Fichardt -120 @ Five Dimes

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Six par fives . . . Coming off a nicely breezy week in the same corner of the world . . . A tourist destination with large greens and likely with spacious views . . . I can't see much of a reason to desert players flashing solid form, shading of course my preference for the longer odds . . .

Richard Sterne(66/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ 5dimes
Jamie Donaldson(50/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Steve Webster(66/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365

That looks closer to the mark than last week's effort.


MATCHUPS:

Dredge(+100) over Garcia (Tournament) for 2.0* @ 5dimes
That's how I see it many times out of ten.

GL

 

[sports student]

Dredge +160 over Olazabel/McGinley 1st round 5 dimes

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 0-3-0; -5.40 units

Garcia/Dredge LOST by 2
Davis/Olazabal LOST by 2
Poulter/Fichardt LOST by 4

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Andrew Marshall to beat Charl Schwartzel +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Paul Casey to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -115 @ Five Dimes
Bradley Dredge to beat Brian Davis -127 @ Five Dimes
Steve Webster to beat Richard Sterne -115 @ Five Dimes
Richard Green to beat Gary Evans -112 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 5-0-0; +7.50 units

Marshall/Schwartzel WON by 3
Casey/Olazabal WON by 2
Dredge/Davis WON by 1
Webster/Sterne WON by 1
Green/Evans WON by 4

Mid-point update:

Gonzalez/Derksen All Square
Garcia/Olazabal Trails by 5
Donaldson/McDowell Trails by 1
Kjeldsen/Marshall Trails by 5
Sterne/Siem Leads by 1

Dredge 15th
Donaldson 25th
Owen mc

Relieved to have reversed the first day blank, but still work to be done to finish this event in profit as this is not a course on which players can catch up. Just as well the two of the outrights are within five shots of the lead. Very poor choice with Owen though. I would have never have picked him had I foreseen this event would deteriorate into a putting contest.


3rd round plays (1.5 units):

Brian Davis to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -108 @ Five Dimes
Peter Lawrie to beat Nicolas Vanhootegem -122 @ Five Dimes
Shaun P. Webster to beat Warren Bennett -115 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 3-0-0; +4.50 units

Davis/Olazabal WON by 4
Lawrie/Vanhootegem WON by 3
Webster/Bennett WON by 4

4th round plays (1.5 units):

Brian Davis to beat Paul Casey -113 @ Five Dimes
Peter Hedblom to beat Marten Olander -112 @ Five Dimes
Santiago Luna to beat Charl Schwartzel +105 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

4th round update: 2-1-0; +1.50 units

Davis/Casey WON by 2
Hedblom/Olander WON by 3
Luna/Schwartzel LOST by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -2.40 units

Gonzalez/Derksen WON by 7
Garcia/Olazabal LOST by 1
Donaldson/McDowell WON by 2
Kjeldsen/Marshall LOST by 1
Sterne/Siem LOST by 4

18-holes: 10-4-0; +9.60 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Dredge 44th
Donaldson 50th

Thankful for the 18-holes this week. They turned a loss-making event into a profitable one, despite a first-round blank. Some narrow losses on the matchups, but the outrights were particularly disappointing ... not that I would have ever picked Kenneth Ferrie to win!

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 10-12; -4.07 units
18-holes: 10-4; +9.60 units
Outrights: 2-13; -5.03 units