canelo/cotto....wsof/bellator.....whatever...

gardenweasel

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have a few big pars riding on the ginger here...understand that roach has another "foolproof' gameplan to thwart an opponent....that`s fine...my guess is that he has cotto trying to outbox alvarez...but at 35 years old and with several fearful beatings under his belt(manny and margarito),the old man is gonna have to prove it to me on what looks like basically enemy turf in vegas(in new York,it might be different...vegas is guadalajara north).........


have to side with the younger,stronger,fresher kid....he may be young but he actually has more fights than cotto....he loses to a 35 year old cotto who has said he`s ready to retire and I think it really damages his brand for a very long time...I think cotto and roach want to cash in with one big payday before miguel says adios...and I`m sure they`d rather take their chances with canelo than golovkin....

quintessential Mexican vs Puerto rican grudge match....the kid`s only loss has been to Money(no shame there)...but if he gets beaten by a smaller 35 year old cotto,it`s a real blemish(or more accurately,a flesh eating bacterial infection) on his record....I`m not putting all that much street cred into cotto`s win over 39 year old and damaged Sergio Martinez...I saw Martinez` previous fight in which he struggled mightily with martin murray in Martinez` own hometown(he was a shell of his former self)....Martinez was off for over a year after murray and was seriously damaged goods going into the cotto fight......

canelo seems to have all the advantages here and if he loses I think it proves that he may be closer to the chavez jr`s of the Mexican boxing world than the chavez sr`s(that might be an over-the-top analogy,but you get my drift...lol)....... ....

he blows here,it`s bad business for him going forward...he`ll catch almost as much flak in mehico as rousey`s catching after getting dummied by holm....he is expected to carry the Mexican boxing mantle going forward..

I have a little leeway to hedge if I see a convincing argument...but I doubt I`ll see one...not buying into the "roach is scottie pippen to cotto`s Michael Jordan" meme....35 is 35....

I`m liking the faves in the wsof tourney in tomorrow night`s opening round...using mamedov and palomino in some pars....ricci "should" beat cobb but cobb can be difficult.....I wish there was an itd prop for zeferino/brian foster....

the bellator card is full of ??(unless you consider parring Houston alexander`s opponent as an automatic play in the vein of going against perennial great fades like leonard Garcia and Jorge gurgel...I don`t know much about alexander`s opponent,though...and that`s a bad way to do business)...

btw...is scott Jorgensen closing in on automatic go against material as a fave in the ufc?...how is he still in the ufc?
 
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THE_THONG

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I like the over in canelo-cotto at -200

cotto's not going to linger in front of the kid, throw some combos move and try to turn him all night

no way cotto goes to war with the redhead, he's in play it safe mode
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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I like the over in canelo-cotto at -200

cotto's not going to linger in front of the kid, throw some combos move and try to turn him all night

no way cotto goes to war with the redhead, he's in play it safe mode

not sure about the over(didn`t see the rounds)....agree on the bolded part for sure......I really think alvarez has an awful lot to lose here given his advantages....to be great you have to beat the guys on their way out on your way up...

edit:i just saw that the over 11.5 was -170 at 5 dimes....g.l.,thongie...

some good fights on during the day on awe.....rematch of Anthony crolla and darleys perez(previous disputed draw) along with Arthur Abraham vs martin murray(murray being the guy that gave a diminished Sergio Martinez all he could handle in argentina prior to him losing to cotto a little over a year later)......also on the cotto/canelo undercard we have miura vs vargas....leaning the tall angular vargas a little at -140...
 
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THE_THONG

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I'll try a far out parlay, something like:

abraham
r. rios
crolla
magny

Not really a believer in martin murray, rather take king arthur at home

won't be surprised if kelvin gas-stellum gasses, he loves the cerveza
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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I`m reading more and more about canelo`s "lead feet":mj07:(mayweather made him look slow...but cotto isn`t mayweather and canelo has talent,,he`s not some ponderous,one dimensional wooden indian ala Brandon rios or angulo) .....and at +275 reduced at 5 dimes,it`s hard not to hedge just a little on cotto......so,i`m caving and going the safe(r) route....still lose money if canelo blows here...just won`t be a total catastrophe...let`s mitigate any potential damage...

I still think that given all the advantages he has here(youth,physical strength,size,reach,venue)it should be enough for alvarez to wear down and take control of cotto late....canelo has to be the pick....he loses this and it will really taint his career,imo....again,cotto is 35....he`s NOT in his prime....what a slap in the face for the next great Mexican "champ-to-be" to lose to a 35 year old cotto well past his prime...cotto actually had to ask to fight this at a catch weight because he`s really not even a legit middleweight...some make Freddie roach out to be some wizard(he`s a solid trainer...not a miracle worker)....I just think he hit the mother lode with manny pacquaio....he didn`t make pacquaio....pacquaio`s rare blend of quick twitch speed ,power and the awkward lefty stance made manny great......he would have been great with many other capable trainers...



crucial,crucial fight for the 25 year old..it`s about building your resume and legacy canelo...you lost your first legacy fight (mayweather..very forgivable loss)).... ......this is legacy fight number 2.....if this goes south and legacy fight number 3 turns out to be golovkin,not good,ese .....:nooo:
 

Ocd

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I'm not that impressed with Canelo, but I think he wins here. I made a prop bet Alvarez by Split decision +850. I think this bet has good value. I don't see any way that Cotto gets a decision win. The fight is being promoted by Golden Boy. Alvarez is Golden Boy's top draw. The scorecards will never go Cotto's way. I think at best, Cotto wins on one scorecard and loses on two scorecards. I won't lay over 3 to 1 on Alvarez. I don't think that bet wins money over the long haul. I won't bet on Cotto at +265 either. Like I wrote, I don't see any way he wins a decision and a TKO over Alvarez is very unlikely. I do think Cotto can win on one scorecard though. The reason is I like Freddie Roach as a trainer over Eddy Reynoso. Cotto has a big edge in trainers. I have seen Cotto improve under Roach. I haven't seen Alvarez improve from fight to fight. The trainer advantage is why I think Cotto will be very competitive in this fight. I think Alvarez by Split decision at +850 is a gift. I'm confident that bet would make money over the long haul.
 

PocketAces

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I think that Canelo should win but at over 2.5 / 1 I think Cotto becomes a value play here.
 
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