With so many players at this site with many opinions. We now seem to cover many events games with both sides. Or shall I say differant view points. This only brings out the fact that everyone should try to capp some for them selfs. Form your opinion and it's sure to match others. But you may feal more comfortable. Trying to play consensus plays is not a good idea. In fact most games may have same number of picks on both sides. You must deside on one or two cappers to follow. Or just do your own. Only winners when so many agree to disagree. Are those called the sportsbooks. If you like a play take time to understand why. Take a look at the baseball contest. Just about every game is picked both ways. Thats 50/50 any way you look at it. The books love it when they get same thing. I know many of the old timers here understand this. But we have so many new ones in last few months. Thought I would put up a reminder.
Can't win with consensus Plays
- Thread starter djv
- Start date
If you do find a consensus and go the opposite way you'll surely come out ahead. Always remember, public consensus is what the bookie thrive on.
I started doing this stuff at the end of baseball season last year.. during the playoffs. At that time I had the sports IQ of a six year old. After months of study I can honestly say that I have doubled my sports IQ to that of an average twelve year old (who isn't into sports at all) !
I originally played free picks at various sites then started doing consensus plays. Now I'm basically a tracker/follower of certain key individuals.
The problem in playing consensus plays is that with POD's it is very hard to see or tell where the opininions came from. And the huge dilemma there is that you may be seeing numerous opinions as to which side of the game to play which came from only ONE person... multiplied by how ever many decided to follow him or her! This gives a very skewed inaccurate opinion. And there is absolutely no way to tell.
It would be great if with the POD's you could believe that everyone posting their plays figured the game out for themself doing their own capping. But we know that this just isn't true.
So... as djv said. Do some of your own thinking as well.
The thing that is disturbing about tracking/following known good cappers is that even they occasionally have bad days. NO.. make that terrible days! I chose to follow all of Fletch's picks the first day of the basketball playoffs....after telling myself... I'm gonna leave this chit alone! Way to dicey and unpredictable. Well...he went 1-9 and so did I.
Nolan told me awhile back that following a capper and going down with his bad streak is called the whipsaw effect. Imagine yourself on one end of a large two man saw.. You are both pushing and pulling your way throught that huge fir tree. Suddenly the guy on the other end hits a knot which JARS the hell out of both of you! He hits the knot while pulling the saw towards him.. but you get a good jolt as well since you are on the other end.
It's discouraging to think that even the good cappers sometimes run into streaks of pretty bad luck... And that a good capper is said to be doing well if he wins 55 to 60 per cent of his games.
My little brother lives off of Tropicana in Las Vegas. If he says.. well hop in my truck Randy and I'll take you to the Monte Carlo (about 3 1/2 miles away). If he also says as I get in that traffic is nuts, it's raining like hell... but I am 55 percent confident that I can get you to the hotel without getting us both killed! I think I'll WALK.
And yet... every day the good cappers play games that they are confident in.. and their history shows that they are survivors because.. they don't play their whole damn balance every day.
So... when my bro says 55 percent. I choose to either walk. Or hey.. I'll cut my odds of getting killed and only ride a mile with him then call a cab!.
AzRusty
I originally played free picks at various sites then started doing consensus plays. Now I'm basically a tracker/follower of certain key individuals.
The problem in playing consensus plays is that with POD's it is very hard to see or tell where the opininions came from. And the huge dilemma there is that you may be seeing numerous opinions as to which side of the game to play which came from only ONE person... multiplied by how ever many decided to follow him or her! This gives a very skewed inaccurate opinion. And there is absolutely no way to tell.
It would be great if with the POD's you could believe that everyone posting their plays figured the game out for themself doing their own capping. But we know that this just isn't true.
So... as djv said. Do some of your own thinking as well.
The thing that is disturbing about tracking/following known good cappers is that even they occasionally have bad days. NO.. make that terrible days! I chose to follow all of Fletch's picks the first day of the basketball playoffs....after telling myself... I'm gonna leave this chit alone! Way to dicey and unpredictable. Well...he went 1-9 and so did I.
Nolan told me awhile back that following a capper and going down with his bad streak is called the whipsaw effect. Imagine yourself on one end of a large two man saw.. You are both pushing and pulling your way throught that huge fir tree. Suddenly the guy on the other end hits a knot which JARS the hell out of both of you! He hits the knot while pulling the saw towards him.. but you get a good jolt as well since you are on the other end.
It's discouraging to think that even the good cappers sometimes run into streaks of pretty bad luck... And that a good capper is said to be doing well if he wins 55 to 60 per cent of his games.
My little brother lives off of Tropicana in Las Vegas. If he says.. well hop in my truck Randy and I'll take you to the Monte Carlo (about 3 1/2 miles away). If he also says as I get in that traffic is nuts, it's raining like hell... but I am 55 percent confident that I can get you to the hotel without getting us both killed! I think I'll WALK.
And yet... every day the good cappers play games that they are confident in.. and their history shows that they are survivors because.. they don't play their whole damn balance every day.
So... when my bro says 55 percent. I choose to either walk. Or hey.. I'll cut my odds of getting killed and only ride a mile with him then call a cab!.
AzRusty
