Capping USC vs V-Tech

[Scott4USC]

I am not suggesting to take USC or V-Tech but I am supplying angles for you to look at for this game. You can make up your own decision on who to take or pass on the game. Since this is the 1st game of the season I am sure everyone wants some type of action on it. So here is some info to consider when capping this game.

*USC will have a dominating DL and LB units. It will be very difficult to run against USC.

*USC is inexperienced but very talented on the OL. Could very well struggle against V-Tech and Beamer has very good blitz schemes. V-Tech's defense is similar to BYU's defensive schemes and last year the USC OL struggled against the BYU blitz schemes.

*USC is also inexperienced at the WR position. Williams is likely out for this game along with Lewis being out for the year academically. Lewis was USC #2 returning WR and most talented WR (outside Williams). USC also suffered an injury to WR Buchanan so USC is very thin AND inexperienced at WR for this game. However, the 3 starting WR's are very talented. Watch out for freshman #8 Dwane Jarret. Many think he has looked even better than Mike Williams did his freshman year at USC. He is also 6.5 like Williams. We all know what Williams did his freshman year at USC!

*Don't count on Mike Williams playing in this game as the NCAA will give its ruling on Thur. and the team leaves for D.C. on Thur. Williams sent in his grades today and this whole process IMO has been handled poorly by USC. Summer school ended 2 weeks ago and today they send in the grades. Coaches reportedly said Williams passed his classes so I "think" the NCAA will let him back but maybe with some suspensions. Who really knows what the NCAA will do.

VERY INTERESTING ANGLE TO LOOK AT!
*V-Tech starting OL will look like this:
RT Martin 6'5" 299 lb. Soph.
RG Butler 6'6" 330 lb. Soph. (new starter)
C Will Montgomery 6'3" 300 lb. JR. (new position)
LG Miller 6'3" 312 lb. Jr. (new position)
LT Dunn 6'7" 330 lb. Sr.

V-Tech lost their #1 lineman in Grove. He was awesome and USC has the #1 DT tandem in the nation in Cody and Patterson. V-Tech is starting new guys at the C, RG and LG spots. Cody & Patterson "should" dominate. Luckily V-Tech has a mobile QB. I am not sure if the V-Tech OL is slow (not athletic) but if they are, USC DL will destroy them all day. If the V-Tech OL is athletic, then they have a chance. USC DL is very very fast and relentless on every down. Plus USC DL is 3-deep so they will be rotating all game.

*Can V-Tech pass the ball? You cannot beat USC being one dimensional. I know V-Tech loves to pound the ball but that WILL NOT work against this USC defense. USC has very average DB's (not great but not bad) so V-Tech needs to accomplish an effective passing attack and NOT go conservative in this game.

*I have read V-Tech is pretty solid and deep on the DL. I hope that is true for V-Tech's sake because USC will average 330 pounds on the OL and this line is very athletic for being so big. USC will have an outstanding run game this year with Reggie Bush and Lendale White as the best running back tandem in the country.

*The pass protection from the USC OL unit has been having "some" trouble in practices but Chow will implement the 3-step drop if V-Tech gets pressure on Leinart. You cannot sack the QB on 3-step timing patterns but having inexperienced WR's could be trouble.

Another interesting angle to look at.
*V-Tech is known for great special teams play. I know they practice it a lot. USC has the #1 punter in the country Malone but he is not very quick in getting off his punts. In addition USC graduated BOTH short and long snappers from last years team. Factor in Malone slow in getting off punts and new long snapper could spell trouble for USC against the V-Tech special teams. You would think one special team TD would allow V-Tech to cover the 17.5. Another thing I found it is V-Tech will be starting a freshman punt returner so that could be trouble for V-Tech as well.

*I do not think V-Tech has any super talented skill players that would hurt USC. No star players except for maybe Randall at QB. This means V-Tech on offense most likely will have to drive 80 yards to score pts with no home-run threats. I do not see that happening too often and I don't think V-Tech scores more than 14pts against USC. Does USC score over 30pts against V-Tech?

*V-Tech will have 60k fans at this game. It is virtually a home game for V-Tech and this team and fans will be pumped to upset the #1 ranked team in the country. This will def. help V-Tech on defense. USC will have around 20k fans at the game. Luckily for USC they opened last year @Auburn with a QB making his first career start and USC passed the test. That experience should help USC in this game.

If anyone else here especially V-Tech fans have any angles to provide for this game, please post them here in this thread. As of right now I think the best bet might be taking V-Tech for the 1h and the under in the 1h. Taking USC in the 2h should be a solid bet as well.

I can't wait for the CFB season to start! USC vs V-Tech should be a great game to start the CFB season.

 

[freelancc]

is this a home game for the Hokies..? or is this game outside of Blacksburg?

 

[ET4646]

The game is at Fed-Ex field in Maryland or is that D.C?

 

[Scott4USC]

The game is at Fed Ex Field in D.C. I have been told there should be around 60k Hokie fans and around 20k USC fans. V-Tech fans have repeatedly said this will be virtually a home game for V-Tech and games played at Fed Ex Field are VERY LOUD! Big advantage for V-Tech.

USC will be in their home uniforms and V-Tech will be in their road unis. USC is scheduled to leave Thur. for the game and this weekend Carroll had the team stay overnight in a hotel and go through all the game day preparations. USC also has been practicing under the lights because the game is at 7:45pm eastern. Very detailed oriented. I can assure you that USC is FULLY PREPARED and not taking V-Tech lightly.

Any Hokie fans on this board?

 

[Scott4USC]

Forgot to mention one more thing to consider when capping this game.

USC technically will only be returning 2 starters for offense from last year for the V-Tech game. 17.5 pts seems like a lot of pts for a team to cover only returning 2 starters from last years offense. Those are the facts!

 

[RightAngle]

As I posted, I think under is the play here. I am hoping the total falls around 45.



Edward

 

[smurphy]

I'm a Hokie fan, but I haven't looked at this game nearly as thorough yet as you, Scott.

There's probably a stat easily available showing V-Tech's opening week record SU and ATS in recent years - and I believe it's good. They start well, even against good teams.

They are all but depleted on both sides of the ball. Very little is expected from them for the first time in several years. This will probably actually be a good thing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a loose, happier team. Things really boiled over last year (see the WVU game! - I was ashamed to be a fan the way they behaved). I could easily see them starting out very spirited - it's just a question of how long it will take for USC's talent to take control.

 

[skinz]

Just to make it clear Fed Ex field is in Maryland, not Washington D.C.

 

[Nickelback]

You know, this line just feels too high to me being the first game of the year and we're talking about Virginia Tech getting all of these points. . . there's gotta be a reason for it and I think for the most part its because Vegas is respecting the fact that USC is very well coached and should be more than ready for this one. Will Virginia Tech be as prepared? I smell a blowout. . .

But, I'll probably stay away from the line and focus on the total. . . I'm thinking a first quarter under as USC may start out a little slow and try to control the clock before sticking it to VT since its the first game of the year and all. Any thoughts?

 

[Blackman]

You know, this line just feels too high to me being the first game of the year and we're talking about Virginia Tech getting all of these points. . . there's gotta be a reason for it and I think for the most part its because Vegas is respecting the fact that USC is very well coached and should be more than ready for this one. Will Virginia Tech be as prepared? I smell a blowout. . .

But, I'll probably stay away from the line and focus on the total. . . I'm thinking a first quarter under as USC may start out a little slow and try to control the clock before sticking it to VT since its the first game of the year and all. Any thoughts?

Agree that the total (most likely the under) will be the best play on the board when it comes to this game. Haven't fully capped all of the angles just yet, but right now I don't see very convincing arguements to play USC or VaTech as a side in this one. Line is tight in my opinion.

As for the total, I think that the public will have USC's high powered offense fresh on the mind from last year and will expect them to put up 35 points on the board. While it could happen, I think Caroll isn't going to get crazy in the first half and will feel his way through the first few series, and I expect Beamer to have his defense ready to play a respectable game (this game is in August so he should be fine, the guy only stinks after Halloween).

 

[Scott4USC]

Blackman

I think there are many angles to look at in this game that favor USC or V-Tech. The problem is you have angles supporting both sides and many question marks coming into this game.

Here is another angle supporting V-Tech +17.5...

There are lots and lots and lots of injuries for USC.

One of my biggest concerns is the number of players injured or no longer with the team. USC depth at certain positions right now is uncomfortably thin. USC is without Hancock (#1 FB), Lewis (#2 WR), Byrd (#1 TE), Guenther (#3 TE), Dennis (#3 RB), Justice (#1 OL) and quite possibly Mike Williams (#1 WR)? Those guys were either a big part of our offense last year or were going to be counted on to contribute significantly this year.

Now here is the list of players that are hurt but going to play in this game but have missed a lot of practice within the last 10 days.

#1 TE Holmes
#4 WR Buchanan
#1 Safety Bing
#3 Safety Ware
Leinart with sore arm and backup QB Booty out for game.

This is not counting all the guys USC lost to graduation and Uzeze leaving early to NFL.

You would think this would hurt USC in a major way and could possibly allow V-Tech not only to cover the 17.5 but maybe pulling off the upset. :scared I don't think anybody knows for sure how the USC offense is going to play in this game, and if you are not sure, wouldn't 17.5 be a gift? Especially with all these injuries and a green OL? Not to mention 60k V-Tech fans too!

It has been a very strange off-season for USC and the problems/injuries keep on mounting.

These are the facts of the situation for USC. I wonder if V-Tech has suffered any crucial injuries or players dinged up. I know V-Tech #1 RB Humes is dinged up but might play. This game on Saturday "could" be a lot closer than the vegas line suggests.

 

[NY Reb]

Scott, you have a great analysis of the game going. Several have made contributing comments. I am just wondering how much the line is jacked up because of USC just being USC, defending champ and all, while not much is expected of VT this season. I saw VT wipe out Miami last year, and probably most everyone else did as well. Miami weren't slouches, so the Hokies are capable of playing a very good game. I don't think their program has gone downhill overnight. Surely we can count on them being well coached. Looking over recruiting the last 5 years, USC has a big advantage talent-wise, but Beamer has recruited better than many people might expect. One stat to keep in mind is that Frank Beamer is 2-22 against top 10 teams. That's not a great record. So the question is, how related is VT's success to simply playing in the Big East? There are so many factors, especially when the game might come down to a field goal to decide whether USC wins by 16 or 19.

I agree totally with Edward. Best play is the under, assuming the line is reasonable. USC could easily win by about the same score that they beat Auburn last year.

 

[Kdogg21]

im thinking it may be worth to risk a $50 on VTech. you never know with the early college games. USC could be caught napping. Unlikely, but it sure is possible. Beamer is a great motivator. but if anything, maybe a first half under play would be good. who knows, im staying away from the game probably...

 

[Hokie Fan]

Hokie Fan here...
2 quick angles...
I and 60,00 + Hokie Fans will be at the game..
It wont be a "home" game but the Hokies travel well and Landover aint far to go so expect a raucus crowd of Gobblers...

2nd point.. Where is Vegas???
Close to California.. will have a ton of California money on USC in the casinos watching the game....
Dont think they dont account for this..
Play that with Tech GREAT early season record and play Tech +18.

If tech can weather the early storm and not be down much ( 7-10) at half time they will start believing and the crowd will pick them up..

Love the Under too/....

Hokie Fan

 

[Lost Hillbilly]

Being from Virginia I "r" a Hokie. Blacksburg is apx. 200 miles from Fed Ex, but they do have a great following and the DC area is full of Hokies. Spoke to many "Golden Hokies" (rich alumni) who are die hards and they all say the same thing. Who is going to run the ball for Tech. Humes is still hurting, Hamilton is a converted wide receiver from a small town that hasn't run the ball in three years, and Bell is still an unknown. Next who will be able to stop the pass of USC. D-Hall is in Atlanta and the d-backs do not have very much speed. Finally who is going to catch the ball from Randall and more importantly, who replaces Randall if he goes down or is off. I agree the crowd will be loud as always, but USC's talent and experience will roll the Hokies. 100 on USC -17.5.

 

[Scott4USC]

I know a lot of people feel V-Tech has history getting off to fast starts but so does USC. So I do think think that is a major criteria in handicapping this game. Plus V-Tech usually has played WEAK opponents to start off the season (minus LSU) and USC usually starts off with strong opponents.

Here is the stat to support USC.........

USC's record in all season openers is 80-23-8 (.757), with 36 shutout victories. In season openers on the road, the Trojans are 23-7-1 (.758). In its first road game of each season, USC is 72-27-8 (.710). Remember these are not all against cupcakes!

Here is a recent quote from the new USC running back coach Todd McNair: Last year he was the RB coach for the Browns. "The difference between the NFL and USC is here we have better running backs." He called Lendale White and Reggie the Thunder and Lightning.

Here is what you can expect from Reggie Bush!
Smack by Leinart and Bush run Reggie Bush also will be returning punts and kickoffs so he def. is a threat to take it all the way. Bush could be the difference between USC covering or not. If USC gets big plays USC should cover the number but if no big plays and the inexperience at WR and OL it could be a tight game and maybe but hopefully not an upset.

USC def. will pound the ball in this game but I have read V-Tech is pretty good on the DL AND has some depth there as well. That will be important for V-Tech.

It has been confirmed that the game is SOLD OUT. I am not sure if the BCA has been sold out before but they are very happy about this. Expect around 60k V-Tech fans and 15-20k USC fans.

Does anybody from V-Tech feel the Hokies will run the option? USC does not face the option nor runs it themselves. Could be trouble for USC but USC defense is super fast which hurts an option attack. I also am not sure V-Tech wants to risk Randall getting hurt. Hokies have no quality backup Qb's to step in and play.

 

[Nickelback]

"USC's record in all season openers is 80-23-8 (.757), with 36 shutout victories. In season openers on the road, the Trojans are 23-7-1 (.758). In its first road game of each season, USC is 72-27-8 (.710). Remember these are not all against cupcakes!"



Scott, you're killing me here. . . check out the record for season openers for most MAJOR college football programs rich in tradition and I bet you're gonna come up with roughly the same numbers and percentages. This isn't a stat to support picking USC or a pick against Virginia Tech because MOST of the games played in season openers and first road games are against cupcakes. . . USC has not played any fewer cupcakes in openers over the past 100 years than anybody else. . . at least by any significant margin worth stating. Virginia Tech has been an up and coming program over the past several years so it would be unfair to compare or contrast what they have done over the past 100 years to a team like Michigan, Notre Dame, or USC.

I'm a huge Michigan fan but you're not gonna see me post meaningless stats over the past 100 years to support a play on the Wolverines over Miami OH in their season opener!

 

[Scott4USC]

Nickelback

I agree the stat is not real useful for handicapping this game but people say V-Tech has history starting out fast. Why is it wrong for me to say the same for USC? Especially when I back it up with real numbers.

This isn't a stat to support picking USC or a pick against Virginia Tech because MOST of the games played in season openers and first road games are against cupcakes. . . USC has not played any fewer cupcakes in openers over the past 100 years than anybody else. . .

I strongly disagree.

From the top of my head, within the last 10 years USC has opened their season against....

@Penn St. (kickoff classic) USC W
@Penn St. (kickoff classic) USC L
Auburn USC W
@Auburn USC W
Purdue (with Drew Bees at QB) USC W
@Hawaii USC W
San Jose St. USC W

*I look forward to the Michigan vs ND game. Hope you do a write-up on that game.

*Looks like V-Tech is healthy at RB. Humes is suppose to be a real good power running back.

VT final scrimmage notes (Roanoke Times)

Humes sharp in final scrimmage

Virginia Tech football

By Randy King
981-3341
The Roanoke Times

BLACKSBURG - The long, dog days of August are officially over for Virginia Tech's football team. Now comes the final-week countdown for next Saturday's season-opening BCA Classic date with No.1-ranked Southern California.

"I think we're probably as ready as we can be," Tech coach Frank Beamer said following the Hokies' final preseason scrimmage on Saturday afternoon in Lane Stadium. "Now we get down to game week, get ready to play a game and see where we are." Beamer, beginning his 18th season at Tech, knows his young club couldn't face a tougher opening test than defending co-national champion USC. The 7:45 p.m. ESPN-televised contest at 92,000-seat FedEx Field in Landover, Md., kicks off the country's college football season.

"The thing I stress is wherever we are, I do feel like we'll get better because we do have some good, young players," said Beamer, who club was listed as a 19-point underdog.

The most significant play of Saturday's scrimmage came on the session's first snap. With all eyes riveted on him, tailback Cedric Humes took a handoff, burst through a big hole in the right side of the line and carried a pair of defenders for a couple extra yards for a nice 12-yard gain.

"I was so glad to see that," said Tech trainer Mike Goforth, who emphatically punched his right fist in the air during Humes' run.

No one has seen more of Humes during the past four months than Goforth. Humes broke a bone in his lower left leg in spring practice and since has spent every day on the comeback trail.

"His mom and dad were here today ... it was just a good day," said Goforth of Humes' first scrimmage work. "I don't know what the cards have in store for Cedric, but I think he's going to be fine. From a health standpoint, he's cleared with us."

Beamer said he thinks the 6-foot-1, 231-pound Humes is set to start against USC.

"I'm hoping he's going to be OK [today], not feel soreness, and I'm hoping that's a good sign for us. I know he feels good about it, and as long as he feels good about it I think we'll be OK."


Scrimmage notes

Led by Bryan Randall, who completed 14 of 22 passes for 154 yards, the first-team offense moved the ball well against the No.2 defense. Freshman Eddie Royal had four catches for 48 yards, including a 6-yard touchdown pass from Randall. Tight end Jeff King (Pulaski County) had two catches for 40 yards.

Freshman Sean Glennon, who will be Randall's backup, was 5-for-14 passing for 77 yards, including a 39-yard TD strike to David Clowney.

EDIT: To insert Nickelback quote.

 

[hm23]

Hokies' WR's are perceived as a weak point but outside of S Bing, I am not impressed w/ the Trojan secondary - this is def. their weakness as the front seven is fantastic.

Maybe folks are overreacting to Cal's passing decimation of VT's DB's in the Insight Bowl. Cal's QB Rodgers is a better college passer and pro prospect than SC's overrated Leinart. Also, HC Tedford is a better off. mind and QB developer than OC Chow and his scheming will eventually land him a job at a major program or in the NFL.

Not having Williams and the execllent complementary talent of Colbert also is not being factored in enough. Smith and the loaded incoming frosh have potential but it has yet to manifest itself on the field. Not having Lewis eligible hurts. Smith is a playmaker and as I mentioned in another of Scott's innumerable threads is the next go-to-guy for the Trojans.

USC backs are scary , esp. Bush but DC Foster should shore up the holes from last season and the Hokies have enough speed to slow down the Trojan O. I suspect VT will have a solid def. performance.

ST's may decide this one...as far as the point spread. VT could pull off the upset , but that would be a surprise.

 

[Nickelback]

I meant over the past 100 years but yes, it is a good point that USC has played decent teams in their openers the past 7 years. I could take the time and look this up, but do you know what their ATS record is in those seven openers? Or their ATS record for openers since Vegas lines were first created?

Michigan-Notre Dame should be interesting. . . Michigan appears to have significant advantages at most positions however, the game is at ND and I'd expect a close one so the points may be the way to go. We'll see how the Michigan offense looks in their "tuneup" against Miami OH which I don't believe is a gimme either.