Friends:
I am not a big fan of the "consensus handicapping" that is done using the Hilton Sportsbook contest (and other contests with handicapers who are supposedly "superior"). This week's consensus plays CLEARLY illustrate the flawed methodology of using that kind of system. Notice that ALL FIVE of the top plays this week in the Hilton Contest are large favorites (two are road favorites!). Picking all the favorites in ANY given week strikes me as very bad handicapping. It's just like lighting a match to your money. It's almost as though JOHN Q. PUBLIC is making these plays (which is what these consensus plays are -- 80 percent squares who manipulate the consensus sytem by watering down the good picks with junk).
Of course, I am writing this well before the games and the consensus plays may do well today. I don't know. But in the long run, playing these double-digit favorites/road favorites is a LOSING proposition. Light a match. Stick your bankroll under the flame. And, watch what happens.
In Week 3, I have noticed a great many players are loading up on plays such as:
JAX -9
OAK -10.5
INDY -12.5
ATL -3.5 (ATL a road favorite???)
DENV -5.5
PHILA -13.5
GREEN BAY -3.5 (another road favorite coming off a MNF home win)
I realize these teams are all favored for a reason. But does the NFL EVER going according to prediction? Does anyone think we are NOT going to see some big upsets (or close games -- which means the dog usually covers)?
I am very wary of all the people jumping on these favorites. I am even more convinced the Hilton contest is worthless as a handicapping tool when I see the majority are all over the chalk. Of course, taking a few favotites is fine, if you think there is justification (I like JAX-9 for example). But, I suspect if you stick to playing these public plays in the long run, you are going to end up losing money. Lots of money.
-- Nolan Dalla
[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 09-30-2001).]
I am not a big fan of the "consensus handicapping" that is done using the Hilton Sportsbook contest (and other contests with handicapers who are supposedly "superior"). This week's consensus plays CLEARLY illustrate the flawed methodology of using that kind of system. Notice that ALL FIVE of the top plays this week in the Hilton Contest are large favorites (two are road favorites!). Picking all the favorites in ANY given week strikes me as very bad handicapping. It's just like lighting a match to your money. It's almost as though JOHN Q. PUBLIC is making these plays (which is what these consensus plays are -- 80 percent squares who manipulate the consensus sytem by watering down the good picks with junk).
Of course, I am writing this well before the games and the consensus plays may do well today. I don't know. But in the long run, playing these double-digit favorites/road favorites is a LOSING proposition. Light a match. Stick your bankroll under the flame. And, watch what happens.
In Week 3, I have noticed a great many players are loading up on plays such as:
JAX -9
OAK -10.5
INDY -12.5
ATL -3.5 (ATL a road favorite???)
DENV -5.5
PHILA -13.5
GREEN BAY -3.5 (another road favorite coming off a MNF home win)
I realize these teams are all favored for a reason. But does the NFL EVER going according to prediction? Does anyone think we are NOT going to see some big upsets (or close games -- which means the dog usually covers)?
I am very wary of all the people jumping on these favorites. I am even more convinced the Hilton contest is worthless as a handicapping tool when I see the majority are all over the chalk. Of course, taking a few favotites is fine, if you think there is justification (I like JAX-9 for example). But, I suspect if you stick to playing these public plays in the long run, you are going to end up losing money. Lots of money.
-- Nolan Dalla
[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 09-30-2001).]
