72 hole matchups
Monty -111 to beat Dyson
Canizares -125 to beat Fernandez-Castano
Both at Sportingbet
Monty -111 to beat Dyson
Canizares -125 to beat Fernandez-Castano
Both at Sportingbet
Celtic manor Wales Open
- Thread starter phar.lap
- Start date
1/4 1-6
Ilonen 100/1 Sunderlands
TOP GB&IRE 1/4 1-4:
Pilkington 200/1 Boylesports
Win/Place:
Arruti 780 w 34 1-10 Betfair
Cevaer 220 w 31 1-5 SportsTAB
Coltart 440 w 25 1-10 Betfair
Lucquin 220 w 34 1-5 Totesport
Slattery 360 w 51 1-5 SportsTAB
Sullivan 607 w 29 1-10 PaddyPower
Whitehouse 310 w 41 1-5 SportsTAB
Ilonen 100/1 Sunderlands
TOP GB&IRE 1/4 1-4:
Pilkington 200/1 Boylesports
Win/Place:
Arruti 780 w 34 1-10 Betfair
Cevaer 220 w 31 1-5 SportsTAB
Coltart 440 w 25 1-10 Betfair
Lucquin 220 w 34 1-5 Totesport
Slattery 360 w 51 1-5 SportsTAB
Sullivan 607 w 29 1-10 PaddyPower
Whitehouse 310 w 41 1-5 SportsTAB
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Bradley Dredge to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places; 20/1 with 5 places available generally]
On a par-69 course in which the pinnacle of a "59" was almost reached last year, being in very good form and a history of being able to shoot very low scores is essential this week. Dredge is one of those players who have come within a whisker of that mark on the European Tour - he shot 60 in the third round of the Madeira Island Open in 2003. And he is in very good form having taken Padraig Harrington to a playoff in the Irish Open two weeks ago. After losing on that occasion, it is easy to overlook his missed cut last week and it should even make him a better prospect for this event. He finished 7th on this course last year - his third top-10 finish in the last five years - after Pod become the first home winner of the Irish Open for 25 years, there should be renewed optimism that a home player can finally win this event.
Raphael Jacquelin to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]
There can be no doubts over Jacquelin's form. Before the BMW PGA Championship last week, he had finished 2nd, 6th, 1st, 7th and 7th in his previous five starts. And while he has not shot a 60 on Tour like Dredge, he did shoot 62 last year in the Malaysian Open and even shot consecutive opening round 62s in 2003 (Nordic Open and BMW International Open). A 17th place finish in his only previous visit (2005) is supportive when it is considered that he was in relatively poor form at the time, so give his recent finishes, he should be a very strong candidate this week.
Martin Kaymer to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, BlueSq and BetFred
I suppose I can be accused of blindly backing Anthony Kim and Martin Kaymer ad nauseum, but I am convinced that both will win on Tour this year. Yet again, as a Tour rookie, he has no course experience, but it didn't stop recording four consecutive top-15 finishes once the Tour returned to Europe in March and finishes of 35th and 30th in the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship are commendable performances against such strong fields and on such testing courses. Neither is the case this week and if there was any evidence needed that he can go low, it can be found in his 59 in the second round of the Habsburg Classic less than 12 months ago. Someone will go very close to matching that score this week and it will certainly helps with the pressure if you've achieved that mark once before.
Bradley Dredge to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places; 20/1 with 5 places available generally]
On a par-69 course in which the pinnacle of a "59" was almost reached last year, being in very good form and a history of being able to shoot very low scores is essential this week. Dredge is one of those players who have come within a whisker of that mark on the European Tour - he shot 60 in the third round of the Madeira Island Open in 2003. And he is in very good form having taken Padraig Harrington to a playoff in the Irish Open two weeks ago. After losing on that occasion, it is easy to overlook his missed cut last week and it should even make him a better prospect for this event. He finished 7th on this course last year - his third top-10 finish in the last five years - after Pod become the first home winner of the Irish Open for 25 years, there should be renewed optimism that a home player can finally win this event.
Raphael Jacquelin to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]
There can be no doubts over Jacquelin's form. Before the BMW PGA Championship last week, he had finished 2nd, 6th, 1st, 7th and 7th in his previous five starts. And while he has not shot a 60 on Tour like Dredge, he did shoot 62 last year in the Malaysian Open and even shot consecutive opening round 62s in 2003 (Nordic Open and BMW International Open). A 17th place finish in his only previous visit (2005) is supportive when it is considered that he was in relatively poor form at the time, so give his recent finishes, he should be a very strong candidate this week.
Martin Kaymer to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, BlueSq and BetFred
I suppose I can be accused of blindly backing Anthony Kim and Martin Kaymer ad nauseum, but I am convinced that both will win on Tour this year. Yet again, as a Tour rookie, he has no course experience, but it didn't stop recording four consecutive top-15 finishes once the Tour returned to Europe in March and finishes of 35th and 30th in the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship are commendable performances against such strong fields and on such testing courses. Neither is the case this week and if there was any evidence needed that he can go low, it can be found in his 59 in the second round of the Habsburg Classic less than 12 months ago. Someone will go very close to matching that score this week and it will certainly helps with the pressure if you've achieved that mark once before.
Will be supplementing these plays and editing these write ups until just before the off . . .
To some degree I of course include various stats in my capping and analysis, but no one could ever mistake me as a "stats guy" with my approaches. However, early this week I had a look, as I was intrigued by the importance of five Par 3s (same as PODS Championship in Florida), but what surprised me in my research on Stan's site is how for the last two years (and in the course compatibility analysis for this year), it was really excellence on the Par 4's that told the story at the top of the leaderboard (followed by the two Par 5's as much as the five Par 3's, IMO). My first hypothesis for that clear stat was that the standard deviation isn't that great between the stats on the Par 3 holes (which appear to be a fairly strong set, but without great variation). Regardless, unlike PODS in Florida, I really downplayed the significance of the Par 3s in my capping . . . Of course I just heard a player on European Tour Weekly repeat the conventional wisdom about the Par 3s being really important this week.
Outrights:
Peter Lawrie(66/1) e.w.
- - The less said . . .
Bradley Dredge(18/1) e.w.
- - For my write up I also planned to feature the same quote from sportinglife/bettingzone that summed up my favorable notions at this point in his 3 week stint: ""My long game wasn't great but I hit enough good iron shots close, putted well and I knew my short game was good enough." It's about scoring this week - every week - and also emulating the heroics he experienced with Padraig in Eire.
Craig Smith(400/1) e.w.
- - I like to cap the home contingent in a National Open on European soil and let any and all that I find reasons to fancy have an opportunity to carry some of my cash.
http://www.thegiant.co.uk/success.htm
Carlos Rodiles(125/1) e.w.
- - My headline play for Wentworth (he was -2 through 30 holes before fading to miss the cut), in which 4 of my 6 plays finished in the Top 20 . . . Not now the first item of deck furniture I'm looking to jettison, based upon a frequently followed strategic perspective, although I don't otherwise have a strong feeling behind his chances for this week.
Martin Kaymer(50/1) e.w.
- - Bernhard Langer as his golfing hero and very comfortable in the 59 realm.
Mikko Ilonen(100/1) e.w.
- - Ticks quite a few boxes.
Fredrik Andersson Hed(50/1) e.w.
- -
Matchups:
Pe.Lawrie(-108) over Wall (Tournament)
Orr(-107) over Campbell (Tournament)
GL
To some degree I of course include various stats in my capping and analysis, but no one could ever mistake me as a "stats guy" with my approaches. However, early this week I had a look, as I was intrigued by the importance of five Par 3s (same as PODS Championship in Florida), but what surprised me in my research on Stan's site is how for the last two years (and in the course compatibility analysis for this year), it was really excellence on the Par 4's that told the story at the top of the leaderboard (followed by the two Par 5's as much as the five Par 3's, IMO). My first hypothesis for that clear stat was that the standard deviation isn't that great between the stats on the Par 3 holes (which appear to be a fairly strong set, but without great variation). Regardless, unlike PODS in Florida, I really downplayed the significance of the Par 3s in my capping . . . Of course I just heard a player on European Tour Weekly repeat the conventional wisdom about the Par 3s being really important this week.
Outrights:
Peter Lawrie(66/1) e.w.
- - The less said . . .
Bradley Dredge(18/1) e.w.
- - For my write up I also planned to feature the same quote from sportinglife/bettingzone that summed up my favorable notions at this point in his 3 week stint: ""My long game wasn't great but I hit enough good iron shots close, putted well and I knew my short game was good enough." It's about scoring this week - every week - and also emulating the heroics he experienced with Padraig in Eire.
Craig Smith(400/1) e.w.
- - I like to cap the home contingent in a National Open on European soil and let any and all that I find reasons to fancy have an opportunity to carry some of my cash.
http://www.thegiant.co.uk/success.htm
Carlos Rodiles(125/1) e.w.
- - My headline play for Wentworth (he was -2 through 30 holes before fading to miss the cut), in which 4 of my 6 plays finished in the Top 20 . . . Not now the first item of deck furniture I'm looking to jettison, based upon a frequently followed strategic perspective, although I don't otherwise have a strong feeling behind his chances for this week.
Martin Kaymer(50/1) e.w.
- - Bernhard Langer as his golfing hero and very comfortable in the 59 realm.
Mikko Ilonen(100/1) e.w.
- - Ticks quite a few boxes.
Fredrik Andersson Hed(50/1) e.w.
- -
Matchups:
Pe.Lawrie(-108) over Wall (Tournament)
Orr(-107) over Campbell (Tournament)
GL
Last edited:
Good points there LIA
The obvious explanation would be that there is actually one more par-4 than usual on this course, so that is just as important as the one extra par-3.
My preferred explanation would centre around your phrase "it was really excellence on the Par 4's that told the story at the top of the leaderboard" ... you can lose a tournament on par-3s, but it is really on the par-4s and par-5s that you make up the greatest advantage over the rest of the field and so put yourself at the top of the leaderboard.
