CFL week 1

[1837]

To prevent many threads regarding the same subject like we had last year, please post all your thoughts and picks right here.

Thank you!


Still waiting for the lines to come up. C'mon Vegas, hurry!

Because i can't wait, I played the game of guessing them. Here's what i think they should be...

Montreal -7.5 over BC Total 50

Saskatchewan -5.5 over Ottawa Total 43.5

Winnipeg -8 over toronto Total 47.5

Calgary -3.5 over Edmonton Total 54.5

Hamilton -5.5 over BC Total 49.5

 

[Korn]

GL this season 1837!

I think your totals look about right.... but for the lines I think Montreal will be higher... maybe -10, and Sask -7, Cal pk, and Hamilton -7, will be BC's 2nd game in 4 days with both on the road...

Anyways if your lines are correct then you know which way i'm leaning already

Looking forward to this season!

GL
Korn

 

[Korn]

well, here they are... Week #1 Lines:

Montreal -11 @ BC O/U 51
Sask -4.5 @ Ottawa O/U 46
Winnipeg -8.5 Vs Toronto O/U 51
Calgary -1.5 Vs Edmonton O/U 54


GL Korn

P.S. Just a reminder to others that #'s like 3, 7, 10 etc that are Key #'s in NFL are not as key in the CFL because of the Rouge... the ability to score a single point....

 

[1837]

As last year when we had success with teaser in the cfl, most of the picks will be...teaser!

Here we go:

Edmonton +8 with Winnipeg -2 (6.5 pts tease) (2 units) OLY

BC Lions +18 with Saskatchewan pick (6 pts tease) (2 units) OLY

Your turn Korn!

 

[1837]

Lines on Saskatchewan went from -3.5 to -6 and BC Lions -10.5 to -12 at OLY! Big line movement here!

 

[1837]

More thoughts on Montreal-BC games. If you plan to play straight, i advice a small wager on BC at +12. I really like them tease at 18 for sure. Not because of their team strenght wich isn't great but because of the chemistry in Montreal that is really not good. Today, in the newspaper a veteran told to a reporter that he can't accept Phillips in the team instead of Pringle. Both running back avoid each others and don't talk and most of the players are upset that Phillips left the team at the beginning of the preseason without being fines by the team. The player who represent the players had already two verbal big talk with the head coach Mathews but we can't know what was the purpose of it...

Sure Montreal can destroy BC easily. They have the team for it but if the players are mad with the direction...:shrug: You know... Just a little more to think about...

More tomorrow if i have anything new!

 

[Huckleberry]

1837......I became a big CFL fan when they expanded to the US back around the time I moved to LV (circa 94 or so). I used to just love playing the games and going to see the Las Vegas Posse play all the great CFL teams at the time...Flutie w/ Calgary and Dunnigan w/ Winnepeg I remember most. I really had tremendous success back then, but haven't really played much over the last few years. I look forward to getting back into it.

I was pretty pissed when it didn't work out here......I don't understand why US fans will not support any football other than NFL. Anyhow, I look forward to your insights throughout this coming year. Your record speaks for itself.

One question though. Why do you seem to have such success in the CFL with teasers? As you know, teasers in the NFL are termed as real "sucker" bets, as most of the time, the 6 or 7 pts added or subtracted do not come into play, therefore taking away from the profit margin.

Did you happen to chart whether or not you would have won without the advantage of the teaser points? For instance......say you play the 2 teasers you mentioned, and then did a 2 team parlay as well. Would that of added to your profits or subtracted from them?

And do you know where or if there is a nice pointspread history section somewhere so as to take a look back and chart the advantage/disadvantage of teasers in the CFL?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Korn]

Thats a good question Huckleberry.... I know i've done well on teasers in the CFL as well... they seem to hit at a high rate....

I'll take a look into it...

As for my plays this week.... I'm dissapointed that I missed out on Sask -3.5 and Under 46 before the lines made a major move....

I haven't made any plays yet... but this is where i'm currently leaning...

Teaser 6 pt
Sask pk and Under 49.5

I like Sask at -6... but even better at pkm... Ottawa had asked the league that they beable to play Sask in their first game back... I guess hoping to not be embarrased by a team like Montreal on opening night and get blown out.... Look at that from Sask's pov.... Ottawa is basically saying Sask is a weak team and that they think they have a shot at beating them.... So that should make Sask go out there and prove them wrong... 2ndly on the Under... If Sask's D plays like last year, Ottawa will have a tough time scoring as they have shown in exhibition.... Meanwhile Sask has a QB this year that should allow them to score more points than last year... but not enough to make them score 40 on their own.... Add two weak place kickers meaning missed FG's.... This game should fall well under 49.5... my prediction is Sask 24 Ottawa 11


Teaser 6pt
Winnipeg -2.5 and Under 57

Toronto's lack of QB should give them a tough time scoring.... I'm counting on their D to hold the score respectable.... which should produce an easy under 57 and Winnipeg only has to win by a FG.... Prediction Winnipeg 28 Toronto 13


Teaser 6pt
Montreal -6 and Edmonton +7.5

Yes theres controversy in Montreal but with a high scoring offence against a team that is inconsistent like the Lions, I will take the -6 anyday.... It will be interesting to see how Montreal handles things, and if BC doesn't show up this could be a blowout... If BC does show up, Montreal still only has to win by a TD... I wouldn't play Montreal straight up though... -12 is too high... I don't like going against 1837... but we can both win this one
Prediction Montreal 35 BC 20
2ndly you have Edmonton who I believe is a much better team than Calgary.... with Calgary missing too many players from last year I like getting +7.5. Calgary has surprised me with the amount of pts they've been able to score so far... but that was exhibition though...
Prediction Edmonton 35 Calgary 30

These are all leans so far.... If you don't like teasers and want to play straight I would would reccommend Sask -6 as the best bet.... followed by the under 43.5.....


Will be back later with the official plays....

GL
Korn

 

[Korn]

Anyone see any books offering Half time or quarter lines yet.... Or Team Totals?? Olympic offered last year... but so far they only have full game lines...

Thanks

Korn

 

[Huckleberry]

WOW!

WOW!

Hey guys! Dont' know if you have any access to wsex, but they currently have SAS at -3? and 47. WOW! Olympic is at -6 and 43?.........that is unreal. They also have the Als at -10?, while Pinnacle is sitting 12?.

Incredible early movement.

 

[Huckleberry]

Sorry Korn....got so caught up w/ those line disparities, that I forgot to thank you for your help w/ the teaser thing.

Only reason I ask is because I always believed in the value of teasers in the NFL until I did a thorough analysis only to find that I was giving money up by playing them.

Anyhow, thanks for your help.

 

[no all]

BC +11

 

[Korn]

Ok Huckleberry... I did some research.... I hope you don't mind me posting this 1837....

I went back thru the plays last year and checked the results if they were played straight or in parlays instead of teasers...

Heres what I came up with...

I just based every play as 1 unit...

Teasers: 14-6 +7.62 units
Straight: 27-14 +10.55 units
Parlay: 8-11 +13.51 units...

Then I did the same with my own posted selections:

Teasers: 5-4 +0.5 units
Straight: 10-7 +2.1 units
Parlay: 4-5 +5.6 units...

So I found the results to be very interesting.... I may play a few more parlays this year.... but its still tough to play the parlay instead of the teaser.... as the teaser just feels that much safer if you know what I mean....

My next project will be to go thru the lines and results of last years games to see how many games are affected by a teaser....

 

[1837]

Korn, i saw Bet365usa will have 1st half spread and total as for the second half too! Like your analysis as well !

Huckle, I'm glad to see an american who like watching the CFL! .

Your questions are really good. No i haven't chart myself with the teaser (too lazy to check back!) nor i know any charts concerning the teaser in the CFL but like Korn wrote, it seems they hit much more often than in the nfl. I don't have any scientific reasons for this. Maybe because of the rouge point?:shrug: Maybe because most games ended with less blow out than in the NFL?:shrug: Your guess is as good as mine!

 

[1837]

Third play will be a 12 points mega teaser at OLY on the total(1 unit):

Montreal-BC over 39
Sask-Ott under 55 1/2
Tor-Win under 63
Edm-Calg over 42

So eager about tonight game !

:drinky: :brows:

 

[Korn]

1837... I did the work for you... I was curious so looked it up... the first set of results I posted were your plays from last year... the 2nd set was mine...

Which books are you using for CFL??

I'm guessing some time tomorrow Olympic will release first half lines and 2nd half lines aswell....


Gimme some more of your thughts on the Sask game please..... I don't know if its because i'm a Rider fan or what... but i'm really beginning to love them in the first game...

currently thinking of possibly taking
Sask -4 straight
under 46 straight

and then parlay them aswell....
and maybe even the teaser....

Am I going overboard?
Should I just stick to the two straight plays?? I know in the past i've had a problem with going overboard on a game and have kicked myself for doing so.... but I really like these plays... If Sask wasn't in it I wouldn't doubt myself as much as I am now...

advice please.... :shrug:

Thanks

 

[1837]

Thanks Korn! Didn't realized the first set was mine!

About your Riders... all i can say is that i "prefer" them tease with the total of the game because Ottawa will be pump and it could be much closer than most people think. The coaching staff for Ottawa is extremely sound and guys aren't that bad! Their problem is lack of depth and not having a reliable kicker. Could it be the upset of the first week ? Maybe:shrug: but i doubt it... Hope Green won't throw as many interceptions as he did last year when he replaced Maas! Saskatchewan by 4!

 

[Korn]

Thanks 1837... I appreciate it....

A little disapointed... I decided I was gonna go with a parlay of Sask -4 and Under 46.... and the teaser as well.... and stay away from the straight wagers... So I signed up for an account at the book which still had those lines.... Made a deposit... went to place the bet... and boom the lines changed to the same as every where else... -6 and 43.5... So I will avoid that for now..

Looks like BC is being Hammered right now.... line was up to 12 at Olympic... now down to 9.5 at Pinnacle....

 

[Huckleberry]

THANKS guys....

THANKS guys....

Those are some interesting results as far as the teasers go Korn! It looks like there would have been some added profits.

Basically, as I said previously, I loved teasers in the NFL because of the security it gave me. I just couldn't lay -7? on a team, but -? in a 7pt teaser just seemed so much easier. But as I found out more times than not, I just didn't need the 7 pts.

I think I'll do the straight/parlay/teaser combo for the first few weeks and see how it pans out.

Thanks again for the input guys......!

 

[Meestermike]

June 25th...Meester M's ~ CFL plays

June 25th...Meester M's ~ CFL plays

BC +12 *
Under 52 *
Some reasonings...

Play On - Road underdogs (BC) - in the first month of the season. (20-8 ATS) (71.4%)
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MON) - in the first two weeks of the season. (11-1 ATS) (91.7%)
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MON) - in the first month of the season. (16-6 ATS) (72.7%)
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (BC) - in the first two weeks of the season. (11-1 ATS) (91.7%)
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (BC) - in the first month of the season. (16-6 ATS) (72.7%)