Champions League w/brief explanations

[GFan9991]

I will only put my money on teams which either have to win to advance or have other motivation.

Leverkusen is in a must win situation against Sociedad, which have no chance of going through. Even if Leverkusen wins, they may not advance if Donetsk also wins but the games are being played at the same time, so there is little chance of an emotional letdown.

Olympiakos is in a slightly better situation because all they need to advance is to win. However, a loss would open the door for Benfica to take the second spot behind PSG.

Bayern is perfect so far through group stage and Coach Guardiola has publicly voiced his intent to go all out to continue their streak of ten consecutive Champions League wins.
-"We're not yet confirmed as first in the group, but we have the chance to finish with six wins"
-"We have a big chance to be first, which would be good for us in the knock-out phase, so that is what we have to aim for."
-"18 points for winning all the games means prestige and there is prize money at stake, that is what we must focus on."

Lastly, Real Madrid and PSG have nothing to play for and will likely sit many of their top guys(PSG already announced no Ibrahimovic) so I'll throw in some plays to fade them and hope for less than full effort.

Plays: All through 5dimes

1. Parlay: Olympiakos to win(-285)
Leverkusen pk(-268)
Risk: $250 to win $213.73

2. Straight wager: Leverkusen to win(-120)
Risk: $300 to win $250

3. Parlay: Olympiakos -1 goals(-207)
Bayern Munich to win(-231)
Risk: $300 to win $337.54

4. Straight wager: Real Madrid- FC Copenhagen DRAW(+415)
Risk: $150 to win $622.50

5. Straight wager: FC Copenhagen +1.5 goals(-122)
Risk: $150 to win $122.95

6. Parlay: Olympiakos to win(-287)
Benfica pk(-172)
Leverkusen pk(-264)
Bayern Munich -1 goals(-162)
Risk: $100 to win $375.50

:toast:

 

[IE]

good luck, thanks for posting.

hope you have lots of winners.

 

[Lee]

Any explanations for today?

 

[GFan9991]

Sure, I'll try to write out my thoughts on some of the games.

Group E- The one game I'm still on the fence on how big to bet is Schalke against Basel. Schalke needs a win in order to avoid heading to the Europa League as even a draw allows Basel the second advancing spot. I like Schalke at home here but I'm still leery of betting against Basel after they beat Chelsea(albeit a limited squad due to injuries).

-Also in that group, Chelsea is guaranteed a place through but needs a win to guarantee themselves the top spot. Ashley Cole, Oscar, and David Luiz are all set to return from injuries for Chelsea which bodes well for their play. Bucharest has recently been content to play for the draw, as they have a draw in their past three Champions League games.

Group F- Borussia Dortmund has been hit hard with injuries recently and are unlikely to have Bender or Sahin in addition to guys already out. Marseille is not a great team and their coach was fired Saturday but I think its hard to put money on a Dortmund team this short-handed and in a position where they may still not advance even with a win if Napoli wins as well(depends on aggregate points)

-Arsenal needs only to avoid a loss by greater than three goals to Napoli to ensure their advance. Napoli does have some injury concerns and may even be without their keeper.

Group G- Atletico Madrid is already through and Vienna is already guaranteed last, so the second spot is between Zenit and Porto. I am actually kind of surprised the line on Zenit over Vienna is not higher than -163. I think they win but its hard to lay -1 with a team that plays a large percentage of close, 1 goal games. Its hard to know how much motivation Madrid will play with or even what lineup they will play, maybe a small play on a draw there.

Group H- Barcelona is already guaranteed to move on and Celtic has no chance to advance. Milan and Ajax will play with the second spot on the line. Milan will continue to be without keeper Marco Amelia. I would love to play Ajax here to pull the upset but their lineup is nowhere near fully healthy and will be missing key guys, even with the return of their Icelandic striker.

I end up tying in games into parlays and such due to not wanting to lay heavy juice, but I will be playing the following in various ways:

Schalke to win(-136)
Schalke 1st half- (pk,-?) (-125)
Dortmund to win(-249) and -1(-165) and -1.5(+107)
Zenit to win(-163) and -1(+106) and TT over 1.5 goals(-150)

I will also parlay some of the above with Chelsea -2(-104) for kicks and to win(-490- laying that juice, even in a parlay kinda hurts). I also will parlay with Chicago Blackhawks to win(-185) and TT over 2.5(-165).

Sorry if this is rambling- but tried to get my thoughts down

 

[bamachuck23]

Great write up and info. Thanks for your work.

:toast: