Championship Write-Ups

[Senor Capper]

NEW ENGLAND (-7?) Baltimore (50?)

After suspect defenses for Green Bay and New Orleans found early playoff exits last week the Patriots can come into question, having allowed the second most yards in the NFL this year. In the second half of the season when the Patriots went 8-0, New England allowed less than 20 points per
game and after allowing 478 yards per game through the first four games of the season the numbers did improve dramatically. While Denver?s offense has its problems the Patriots held Denver to 252 yards and ten points last week, when the Broncos put up big numbers against the league?s top statistical defense the previous week. Baltimore had great defensive numbers statistically but the Ravens only once all season played a team with a top ten offense, getting shredded by the Chargers in a 34-14 loss in a critical late season game. Last week Houston with a rookie QB had 315 yards and the Ravens were a deflected Hail Mary away from needing overtime despite a 4-0 turnover advantage. Baltimore?s offense continues to struggle as the Ravens had just 227 yards in last week?s win and the running game was shut down, gaining just 2.8 yards per rush. Joe Flacco gets very little credit for Baltimore?s success but he now has five playoff wins in four years though he done so with a career postseason rating of 66.2. Tom Brady of course has been one of the all time greats in the playoffs, going 12-5 with 36 touchdowns and only 17 interceptions. Two years ago Brady had his worst playoff game against this Ravens team however in a 33-14 loss at Foxboro. Flacco completed just four passes in that game and he will need to play much better this year to get another upset win for Baltimore. Heavy playoff underdogs have been successful in recent years with a 13-6-1 ATS mark since 2008 when dogged by more than a touchdown, including teams going 4-1 against the Patriots in that span. Baltimore was just 4-4 on the road this season, losing to four non-playoff teams. The offense really struggled away from home, scoring less than 20 points per game, a figure that won?t be enough to win this week. New England?s defense is allowing just 18 points per game at home and the Baltimore defense has very average numbers on the road, especially against the pass. In the past three games New England?s defense played top 13rushing offenses and held them all in check so the notion that the Ravens will be able to run the ball with ease is faulty. Look for the Patriots to come through with another strong performance.

PATRIOTS BY 10


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SAN FRANCISCO (-2?) NY Giants (43?)


San Francisco plays physical defense and the secondary did an excellent job last week to contain Drew Brees and the record setting Saints offense. That said the Saints were able to storm down the field twice in crunch time to take the lead, posting nearly 500 yards in the game and if not for five turnovers the 49ers probably aren?t not in position to rally for the win. Alex Smith deserves a ton of credit for making some big plays down the field but he will face more pressure this week as the New York pass rush is healthy and made pro bowlers Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers look bad the last two weeks. San Francisco rushed for 6.5 yards per game last week which should be the bigger concern for the Giants on defense. New York was the worst rushing team in the NFL in the regular season but so far in the playoffs the ground attack has been more reliable and Eli Manning has played extremely well so far in the playoffs and has plenty of big game experience. Manning is 5-1 in his last six playoff games with the lone loss coming in the lone home game. In those six games Manning has just four interceptions and nine touchdowns.
San Francisco has been very tough at home the last two years including going 7-1 this season and San Francisco beat the Giants at home in November. Statistically the Giants had many edges in that game, winning the yardage battle 395-305 and surprisingly out-rushing the 49ers despite the
contrasting season statistics on the ground. Manning had two interceptions in the game but nearly rallied the team back for the win in the closing seconds. While San Francisco benefited from one of the weakest schedules in the NFL they did perform well against top teams. The Giants played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, particularly in the second half of the year, facing teams with 8-8 or better records in eight of the final nine games of the season. San Francisco only faced five winning teams all season long and this was a team that struggled down the stretch with two losses in the final six games as well as narrow wins over bad teams Seattle and St. Louis. Only three times in the final ten games of the regular season did San Francisco top 21 points and New York?s defense is better than the numbers indicate. Now healthy the Giants have held Atlanta to just 247 yards and Green Bay to justn 388 yards, allowing just 22 combined points in two road games against elite offensive teams. The red zone deficiency for the 49ers could cost them as the Giants excel in the red zone and in 3rd down conversions.

GIANTS BY 3

 

[Senor Capper]

TOTAL ?UNDER? NY Giants at San Francisco


The Giants have allowed just 22 points in two games despite playing two of the better offenses in the NFC, teams that have been far more productive than the 49ers have been. There were 47 points in the regular season meetings between these teams at Candlestick Park but the weather could be slightly worse this time around and that was a game that was 9-6 at halftime before 29 points were scored in a span of less than ten minutes in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter. One San Francisco touchdown was set up by an interception and both teams struggled on third downs as there were six field goals kicked. The Giants scored 37 last week in Green Bay but they were facing the worst statistical pass defense in the history of the NFL and also benefited from turnovers setting up several scores as well as miracle touchdown pass in the seconds before halftime. The ?under? has hit in four of the last six 49ers home games and other than last week?s game with New Orleans this will be the highest total for a game in San Francisco all season. The ?over? has hit in five of the last six NFC Championships which forces this line to be a bit higher but the total dropped significantly shortly after the opening number of 45. It is too early to know for sure, but rain is in the forecast at this point in the week which could certainly slow down the scoring in this game while also hurting two teams that are reliant on the kicking game for a big percentage of scoring.


========

TOTAL: ?OVER? Baltimore at New England


The ?over? has hit in each of the last seven Patriots games and each of the last three New England playoff games, including the playoff game
between these teams two years ago with 47 points scored. In the last seven games against Baltimore, the Patriots have scored nearly 26
points per game and while this is a good Ravens defense it is not at the elite level of years past. The Patriots should key in on stopping the run so
the best opportunities for the Ravens may be in the air and Baltimore does have a couple of big play threats with Torrey Smith and Lee Evans.
The Ravens allowed rookie T. J. Yates to pass with some success last week and covering the big tight ends will be a problem. Both teams have
shown the ability to create turnovers which could set up easy scores and neither team has shown a consistent pass rush which could allow both
passing games to have some success. The ?over? is 8-2 in the last ten AFC Championships, although the two instances in New England both
played ?under? the total.




NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK

Defensive Momentum
PLAY ON: Any NFL playoff team that held its opponent to ten or fewer points
in the previous game.
23-12-2, 65.7% since 2005
PLAY ON: New England

 

[cash]

So, are you saying lay 2 with SF and take 3 with NYG

Trying to side this game?

 

[Senor Capper]

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Baltimore 20

Although these two didn?t see each other in the regular season, they?re certainly familiar with one another after numerous collisions in recent years. Included is a memorable game late in New England?s undefeated 16-0 regular-season run of 2007, when an 18?-point underdog Baltimore side, enduring a difficult campaign and about to sack HC Brian Billick, gave the visiting Patriots their biggest scare until the Super Bowl vs. the Giants, with Tom Brady waiting until a few seconds remained before hitting Jabar Gaffney with a game-winning 8-yard TD pass for a 27-24 win. The
teams also played a pair of similar-looking regular-season games at Foxborough in 2009 & 2010, with New England winning narrowly on each
occasion, 27-21 and 23-20 (the latter in OT).
Only once have these two faced off recently in the postseason, however, and that was in the 2009 Division Round at Gillette Stadium. In what was the worst playoff showing by both Tom Brady and a Bill Belichick team, the Patriots were routed, 33-14, having spotted the Ravens a shocking 24-0 lead in the first quarter, fueled by Ray Rice?s 83-yard TD run on the initial play from scrimmage and by Brady giveaways (a fumble and a pick) on two of New England?s first three possessions. That was also the only win for the Baltimore franchise in
seven tries against the Pats since the Ravens moved from Cleveland in 1996. Although New England avenged that loss in the 2010 regular season, it was not a dominating effort. Indeed, Brady has been held mostly in check by the Raven
defense in recent meetings, tossing five picks and being sacked six times in the last two battles, ironically after Ray Lewis had vehemently protested ?special treatment? for Brady after a pair of Patriot TD drives were aided by roughing the
passer penalties in the ?09 regular-season dust-up. Meanwhile, Rice has gouged out 350 YR in the last three confrontations, while Raven QB Joe Flacco outperformed Brady in last year?s matchup.
So why do we think New England will have an easier time of it this week? Although Belichick?s "D" ranked an uncharacteristic 31st overall this season, it did rise up and stuff the vaunted Denver ground game last week, and
Belichick has undoubtedly gone to school on a recurring Ravens theme in which the offense sputters when Rice is slowed, as he was last week when gaining only 60 YR on 21 carries vs. the Texans. The New England stop unit, mostly rebuilt in the back seven this season, made steady improvement as the season progressed and recently welcomed back key playmakers LB Brandon Spikes & FS Patrick Chung (both instrumental in wrecking the Tim Tebow Bronco attack last Saturday). Flacco?s effectiveness TY has also almost been completely linked to Rice?s success (or lack thereof), and Flacco was sacked five times last week by Wade Phillips? defense when Rice was impeded. Rest assured Belichick is aware of those dynamics. And while style points can be deceiving, the New England ?O? certainly looks like a smoother-functioning machine at the moment than does Baltimore?s. Brady has welcomed some new diversions into his arsenal of weapons, including LSU rookie RB Stevan Ridley (5.1 ypc), and if not for the hoopla surrounding Drew Brees? record-setting passing exploits in New Orleans, Brady would have been getting all of the accolades after posting eyeopening numbers that included 5235 YP and 39 TD passes, plus six more scores last week vs. Denver, when the Patriots broke the 30-point barrier for the 13th time TY. The Baltimore defense also holds no mysteries for Brady, who has seen it several times before. Moreover, there?s concern in the Ravens camp regarding key FS Ed Reed, who suffered an apparent leg injury on the final defensive play last week against the Texans. And if Baltimore can?t do a better job pressuring Brady than it did last week vs. Houston rookie QB T.J. Yates (who wasn?t sacked), New England can be expected to capitalize much better than did the limited Texans. We?d also be remiss if not pointing out that despite the Ravens? familiarity with playoff action on the road (where they?ve played seven times since 2008), in their final game each of the last three postseasons, they also failed to cover the
spread. We doubt the red-hot Brady gives Baltimore a chance to alter that trend.


==================


SAN FRANCISCO 24 - New York 17

These two have some NFC title game history, as Bill Parcells? Giants edged George Seifert?s 49ers 15-13 in the 1990 season, preventing Joe Montana from trying for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat. Even without starting QB Phil Simms and without a touchdown in the game, the Lawrence Taylor-led Giants were able to dump the champs, beating up Montana (injured sternum, fractured finger on passing hand) and eventually KOing him late in the game. In that contest, the side with the better defense was the winner. In this meeting, that important edge is held by stingy San Francisco, which was second (by just two points) only to Pittsburgh in allowing the fewest points in the regular season; New York was 25th. In terms of yards allowed, the 49er defense was 4th; the Giants were 27th. In turnover margin, S.F. (after a +4 last week) is now +32; N.Y. (after a +3 last week?despite a missed G.B. fumble by the refs) is now +10. The 49ers came from behind to capture the regular-season meeting between
these two teams November 13th, trailing 13-12 after three quarters before winning 27-20. S.F. RB Frank Gore?who had recorded five straight 100-yard games?injured his knee early in that game, leaving after gaining 0 yards on six carries and did not return. Now, Gore (1211 YR in the regular season) is backn in action, plus speedy rookie backup Kendall Hunter (473 YR) is much more
experienced. Even more important are the development of TE Vernon Davis (7 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs last week) and Michael Crabtree (73 recs. in the regular season) into bona fide NFL receiving threats. Davis? 180 yards are the most by a TE in playoff history, and his clutch 14-yard game-winner vs. the Saints will go down in 49er lore as one of the best (and there are a few) in team annals. But the most important development for S.F. this season has been the improvement of QB Alex Smith, who was the best among NFL starters with only 5 interceptions. And that improvement can be traced directly to the arrival of former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh as head coach. Harbaugh has not only boosted Smith?s confidence. He has done so by helping Smith know when to throw, teaching him where to throw, and getting him to know when not to throw. Smith?long buffeted about in the media despite early-career injuries, poor support, and ever-changing offensive coordinators?is now a trusted leader who knows his team can win games with its ground attack, defense, and special teams.
After supporting the G-Men last week at Lambeau Field, it is well recognized here that Eli Manning is among the best as a postseason visitor (5-1 SU and 6-0 vs. the spread on the road, including his Super Bowl win, all as an underdog). N.Y. is 6-2 as a dog TY. However, the greatly-improved 49ers, loaded with former No. 1 picks, have demonstrated they are a unique aggregation this
season under the inspirational Harbaugh, especially at home, going 8-1 SU (the only loss in OT vs. Dallas) and 8-0-1 vs. the spread. So, there are plenty of technical justifications both ways. And N.Y. WRs Nicks, Cruz & Manningham are plenty scary. But so were Drew Brees? group with the Saints. The belief here is that a definitive edge is held by the S.F. special teams, with record-setting David Akers doing the kicking, Pro Bowler Andy Lee doing the punting, and coverage teams regularly providing field-position advantages.
We?re not about to knock the improvement of the Giants, whose late-season returnees from injury helped set them up for their postseason run. But Harbaugh gave plenty of signs back at Stanford (ask Pete Carroll) and before that at U. of San Diego that he could generate a special magic, demonstrated again last week vs. the explosive Saints. With his players in full belief, the jutjawed coach might have a few more tricks up his sleeve.

 

[Senor Capper]

BALTIMORE (13-4) at NEW ENGLAND (14-3)


It certainly didn't take long for these mighty Patriots to squelch Tebowmania. Quite a showing in that 45-10 rout of Denver, with Brady again proving his worth, with no less than 5 first half TD passes, & 6 for the game. As a matter of fact, he threw all 6 scoring tosses in the first 33:24. That moved the Patriots' current run to 9-0 SU, while averaging 37.1 ppg. And the win over the Broncos also snapped a NewEngland 3-game playoff losing skein, beginning with the Pats' SuperBowl loss to the Giants, thereby preventing a perfect season. Tom is now at 5,598 PYs & 45/16. Once again, his favorite receiver, TE Gronkowski, was spectacular, with 3 more TDs (20
this year, along with 1,542 receiving yds), and check 31st ranked "D" recording 17 plays for minus yds vs Denver. That "D" is healthier now, & just may duplicate the Colts' SuperBowl run in '06, when that formerly sieve run "D" was impenetrable in the playoffs. The Ravens were hardly impressive in their win over the Texans, with
just 11 FDs & 227 TYs, in failing to improve on a 17-3 first quarter lead, never scoring another pt until a Cundiff FG in the final 2:52 (a span of 43:16). A 4-0 TO edge was the key to that narrow win, as Rice (1,364 RYs in the regular season) was held to 2.9 ypr. Thus, it was again up to its superb "D" to hold on vs upstart Houston. And now they must take to the road, where they are 4-4, both SU & ATS, with a mere 20-18 ppg edge.

Two years ago, the Ravens travelled to NewEngland in the WildCard round, & as 3? pt dogs, they routed the Pats, 33-14, holding New
England to 196 yds. That won't be the case this time around. Pull Patriots' lever.


NEW ENGLAND 30 - Baltimore 17


=======================


NEW YORK GIANTS (11-7) at SAN FRANCISCO (14-3)


A month ago, the possibility of the Giants being one of the participants in this game was remote, indeed. Standing at 7-7, & fresh off a 23-10 loss to the Redskins, NY has turned it all around. As a matter of fact, that loss to Washington wound up a 4 game run by the Giants, in which they allowed 36 ppg. To say that things have changed, would be a huge understatement. Since then, they've won 4 straight, both SU & ATS, by an average score of 30-13, covering those 4 by 18, 14, 19, &
24? pts. Not only have they gotten the most from Manning, who simply plays his best in big games (9 TDs, 1 INT the last 3 wks), but their overland game, which finished 29th in the NFL during the regular season, has blossomed with the return to health of Jacobs & Bradshaw. And that formerly so-so "D" has been splendid,
especially in pressuring the QB, as they did vs the brilliant Rodgers in upset of the Packers. A true force. The Niners have been there all year, & are brimming with confidence, after pulse-pounding win over the Saints, in a game that saw 4 TDs in
the final 4:02, 3 in the final 2:11, 2 in the final 1:37, & the winner in the final 0:09. Unbelievable! SanFran is on a 12-5-1 ATS run by 139 pts ATS; owns the 4th best "D" in the NFL, is 8-0-1 ATS at home (8-1 SU), & allowed only 3.3 ppg in its 3
previous HGs, before finally prevailing over Brees & Co, 36-32. Five takeaways for the Niners last week, but 4 by the Giants. These 2 met here 2 months ago, with SanFran using a 15-pt 4th quarter for a 27-20 win. And they met here in the '02 playoffs, when SF overcame a 24-pt deficit for a 39-38 win.
This goes to final gun...

NEW YORK GIANTS 23 - San Francisco 20

 

[Senor Capper]

:toast:

 

[cash]

Oops ...my bad:0008

 

[Senor Capper]

New England over Baltimore by 4


It?s easy to get caught up in all the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick hype that goes with backing the New England Patriots. Certainly the Patriots looked great
against Tim Tebow and Denver last week. But, really, how good were the Broncos, who were 8-8 and backed into the playoffs? Brady and Belichick
are sure first ballot Hall of Famers.Brady leads a flashy offense that averaged 32.1 points a game, third-best in the NFL, and a second-best 428.2 yards per game. Behind all that glitz, though, are several disturbing facts about the Patriots. They?ve never had a playoff defense this weak before in the Belichick era, ranking second from the bottom in total defense and passing yards. Aside from Denver, the Patriots met only two other playoff teams. They lost both of those games falling to the Giants at home by four points and to the Steelers ? a team Baltimore went 2-0 against - by eight points. For all of Brady and Belichick?s greatness, the Patriots had not won a playoff game since 2007 until beating overmatched Denver this past Saturday.
Before defeating the Broncos, the Patriots hadn failed to cover in their past six postseason matchups. One of those non-covers was a straight-up loss two seasons ago at home to Baltimore by 19 points as three and one-half point favorites.The Ravens rushed for 234 yards in that 33-14 victory while picking off Brady three times and holding him to just 154 yards passing. Brady happens to be just 1-3 in his last four playoff contests. The Ravens play in the much tougher AFC North Division and have a far stronger defense than the Patriots. Baltimore played six games against playoff teams this season and won all six. The Ravens beat the Texans, 49ers, Steelers
twice and Bengals twice. They were 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Baltimore achieved this with a defense that ranked in the top four in all the major statistical categories ? fewest points at 16.6, total defense, pass defense and rush defense. The Patriots can?t come close to matching Baltimore on defense. Ray Lewis still remains a force,Terrell Suggs is one of the top pass rushers in football, Haloti Ngata is in the discussion for best nose guard and the secondary is underrated.The Ravens have the defensive backfield depth to play man-to-man against New England. Brady has plenty of weapons with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but the Patriots? lack of speed on the flanks is something the Ravens can exploit. New England scored just 17 points on Pittsburgh, the best defense it faced. The Giants held the Patriots to 20 points. Baltimore is more than capable of holding the Patriots to a similar total, especially with New England not at full strength in its offensive line. Don?t look for the Ravens to get rattled either in Foxboro.They?ve already played seven road playoff games during four years under John Harbaugh posting a 4-3 record. Certainly the Patriots own a huge edge with Brady facing Joe Flacco.The Ravens, though, have two reliable weapons for Flacco to fall back on in Ray Rice, one of the best all-purpose backs in the league, and Anquan Boldin, one of the better possession
receivers. Boldin, now fully healthy after late season knee surgery, is a matchup headache. Flacco isn?t bad as some may think. He?s thrown for
more than 3,600 yards during each of the last three seasons. He has plenty of playoff experience being the first quarterback in NFL history to go to the playoffs in the first four years of his career.No quarterback in the history of the league also has achieved more regular-season victories through his first four seasons than Flacco.The Patriots lack a shutdown cornerback, which makes speedster Torrey Smith and deep threat Lee Evans dangerous for the Ravens.

NEW ENGLAND 27-23.

========================


New York Giants over *San Francisco by 3


We?ve been down this road before with the Giants.They get hot down the stretch and ride that momentum all the way though the Super Bowl.The Giants still have 15 players, including Eli Manning, from their Super Bowl winning team of four years ago.The Giants won three road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.The final playoff victory was against Green Bay in the NFC title game. Sound familiar? Manning was good in 2008. He?s Pro Bowl caliber this year.The Giants also are stronger at wide receiver, running back and defensive line than they were when they upset New England in the Super Bowl.The Giants are peaking at just the right time again going 6-
1 ATS in their last seven games.They are 7-1 ATS during their past eight playoff matchups.New York has been more than impressive the past four weeks beating the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers by a combined margin of 121-50. All of those games were do-or-die. The closest any of those teams could come to the Giants was 15 points. San Francisco has been pointspread gold, too.The 49ers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games.We see the Giants, though, as not only more playoff-experienced but also on an even emotional keel compared to the 49ers and their emotional coach, Jim Harbaugh.The 49ers are off that dramatic upset victory last Saturday against
New Orleans.That was San Francisco?s first postseason game in nine years.
The 49ers? so-called outstanding defense surrendered 32 points to the Saints and 462 passing yards and four touchdowns to Drew Brees. Not to detract from San Francisco?s great effort and victory, but the Saints committed
five turnovers to the 49ers? one turnover yet only lost when Vernon Davis caught a touchdown pass with nine seconds left. When you have a plus four turnover edge you should win going away.The 49ers were beneficiaries of playing in the weak NFC West.While the Giants were taking care
of business in must-win spots against good-to-excellent opponents, the 49ers were barely scraping past Seattle and holding off St. Louis before beating the Saints. The 49ers beat the Saints in large part because Alex Smith played his finest game. Can Smith duplicate that performance? Highly doubtful. Smith hasn?t passed for 300 yards all season.Manning,by contrast,
threw for more than 300 yards in half of his 16 regular-season games while totaling 4,933 yards through the air and 29 touchdowns. Davis is a great tight end for Smith. But Manning has much better wideouts with Hakeem Nicks,Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. Smith had problems in the red zone producing 22 touchdowns in 54 trips, which was third-worst in the league. Smith also was sacked a league-high 44 times.The Giants? defensive strength is their outstanding front four of a now healthy Osi Umenyiora joining Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. Let?s not put Smith in the Hall of Fame for his performance against the Saints.That game
was a fluke. Harbaugh and his staff made great calls against an all-out blitzing Saints defense that doesn?t know how to play any other way.The Giants are one of the few teams that apply quarterback heat rushing just four. Making Manning more effective is the Giants? ground game has come to life thanks to Ahmad Bradshaw. New York is averaging 133 yards on the ground
during the past two weeks. San Francisco has the league?s top run defense. While the Giants aren?t going to run wild on the 49ers, San Francisco has
to pay lip service to New York?s ground attack. Manning is at his best on play-action, which the 49ers have to respect.The 49ers? lack of competition
down the stretch, playoff inexperience and emotional high from last week will hurt them in this NFC championship match.


NY GIANTS 23-20.

 

[Senor Capper]

Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still
stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB?s LW?s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU?s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL?s 20 pts were off TO?s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 SU/5-4 ATS at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO?s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 SU/ATS on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO?s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO?s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO?s for a 30-21 avg score. BAL?s best finish on off has been 13th with Joe Flacco at QB so TY?s #15 ranking is within the norm. After having a career best ssn in 2010, Flacco?s #?s are a bit disappointing esp his 57.6% comp rate. Part of this is due to having a rookie #2 WR and a pair of 2nd year TE?s seeing more time in the passing game. OC Cam Cameron generally emphasizes the pass to start the year to get more snaps for Flacco in warmer games while keeping Ray Rice fresher down the stretch. TY was no different as Rice avg?d 62 ypg (4.1) in the 1st 9 gms vs 115 ypg (5.3) over the final 7 finishing 2nd in rushing to Jones-Drew. Under Flacco the biggest issue with BAL?s off has been a lack of spd on the perimeter. They upgraded that with Torrey Smith who finished 3rd in rec yds and 4th in ypc for rookie WR?s with more than 10 rec?s. Boldin missed the L/2 with a knee injury but is expected to ret for the playoffs along with Lee Evans who missed almost all of the ssn with an unspecified foot injury. TE Ed Dickson had a solid impact in the passing game but he was tasked with more blk?g in the L/7 which coincides with Rice?s surge. BAL?s OL had an excellent yr as they started all but 1 gm together due to RG Andre Gurode?s toe inj and were 12th in sks all?d. The Ravens #3 def also had an excellent yr finishing in the top 10 for the 9th straight ssn. BAL is one of the few teams with the luxury of being able to plug in DC?s, though 1st year DC Chuck Pagano was more aggressive with the blitz than in previous ssns. BAL only had 8 games missed by def starters TY with 4 coming via Ray Lewis? turf toe injury. While BAL allowed 8 gms of 100 yds rushing (120 ypg, 3.7) they also held foes to 93 yds or less (65 ypg, 2.1) 8 times. They are 1 of the 5 teams with more int than TD passes allowed TY and allowed 200 or fewer yds passing in 9 gms TY. BAL?s biggest issue is their special tms which after being 12th LY tumbled to 25th due to poor play by the return units. Much like GB, NE has taken a bit of heat TY for their #31 D. Belichick flipped the unit to a 4-3 due to the lockout but inj?s took their toll with only 5 def st?rs playing all 16. NE?s ?bend don?t break? scheme relies a lot on situational FB which is where Belichick excels. NE is a healthy 14th in sks despite not having a marquee pass rusher, is tied w/SEA for 3rd in takeaways (34) and are an avg 15th in ppg allowed. NE?s #31 pass def has only all?d 3 more TD?s than int which is 8th best TY. NE has given up 8 gms of 300 net yds passing TY but since their bye week on Oct 23rd they have all?d only 2 games with an opposing QBR of over 100 with 1 vs IND when they toyed with them in the 4Q. NE also seems to be mentally tougher than the L/2Y on D as they have solid leaders in Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and the defenders are used to this style of ball. The Patriots also quietly got Patrick Chung back in the ssn finale as well as Brandon Spikes to help shore up the run defense. NE?s best def player is Tom Brady as he sets the tempo with his command of the game. Along with Brees he also broke Dan Marino?s NFL passing record and his 39 pass TD?s was 2nd only to his 50 in 2007 and his 8.57 ypa was 2nd only to Rodgers TY. 2010 offered a glimpse of how versatile NE?s 2 TE spread off could be as Gronkowski and Hernandez are starting to max it out. NE is the only team with 3 ply?rs over 900 yds rec and just Welker and Hernandez comb have more rec yds than DEN (by 188 yds) or JAX (by 386 yds). Brady?s success eats into the #20 run gm and keep in mind it had finished 12th or better the L/3Y. NE?s RB?s get playing time depending on the situation/foe and are a ?hidden asset? in this off. The top 3 RB?s have comb for 1,459 yds (4.2) which would be 2nd behind Jones-Drew in rushing TY. The fact that Brady has been sk?d just 32 times TY (9th) is quite impressive as only FA addition Brian Waters has started all 16 gms TY. NE also has also improved on ST?s as after being 11th LY they are 6th thanks to their punt units. A classic off vs def battle as well as a rematch of 2009?s Wildcard game (BAL +3? 33-14 at NE). The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. ?I?d have been booing us, too, the way we played,? Brady said. ?Playing the way we played today, we weren?t going to beat anybody.? We know Brady can beat any def and while BAL?s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD?s getting TD?s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl ?drives?. Don?t discount NE?s D as they?ve played bend but don?t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they?ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.


New England by 16

 

[heleanth]

The Giants beat the Packers because the Packers self-destructed. Rodgers missed numerous open receivers. When he did throw the ball accurately, the receivers dropped numerous balls that should have been caught.
Plus four turnovers and a really poor decision to go for it on fourth down, where Rodgers didn't even throw the ball.
Plus the fluke hail mary at the half.

Giants where handed that game by the unprepared Packers. The 49ers will be much more ready.

 

[Senor Capper]

NY at SF


Both teams capitalized on stout defensive play to turn the tables against two of the NFL?s premier QB?s to advance to the NFC Championship. Earlier this year SF caught the Giants at an ideal time as they were off a big road win vs NE with B2B primetime events vs PHI/NO on deck. The Giants pulled to within 7 halfway thru the 4th Qtr and were threatening to tie at the end but DE Justin Smith deflected the pass on 4th&2 on the SF 10. The Giants had a 395-305 yd edge holding the ball for 34:37. Manning had 311 yds (65%) w/a 2-2 ratio while Smith hit for 242 yds (63%) w/a 1-1 ratio. SF is 16-1-1 ATS at home with Alex Smith and while they have only outgained foes by 12 ypg TY they are an amazing +23 TO?s for their 29-13 avg score. The Giants are 6-3 SU/ATS on the road TY (inc SF) where they have been outgained by 7 ypg (+7 TO?s) with a 27-26 avg score. There are plenty of common foes TY with the divisions facing each other and NO was the 1 NDIV foe that both teams faced. The Giants were outgained by 8 ypg (+2 TO?s) overall for a 26-24 avg score but 4 games were at the start of the year when the OL was adjusting and the secondary was beat up. SF was outgained by 4 ypg but were +25 TO?s for a 26-18 avg score.
Statistically, Eli Manning isn?t that far off from what you?d expect from him but he?s had arguably his
best season ever. Working behind 5 different OL combos, 2011 was another year with skill players being dinged up, yet Manning managed to throw for a career-high in passing yards. The Giants have their 1st 1,000 yd duo of receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Nicks has been a reliable but not overly splashy as the #1 WR while Cruz has been the 2nd best slot WR in the NFL TY behind Welker. Mario Manningham is now the possession WR and when healthy Jake Ballard is a solid receiving TE. Bradshaw and Jacobs each have a single 100 yd rushing game TY due to injuries to themselves and the OL. They are built to be a power rushing team and are much better than their #31 rush off ranking. The best player on the Giants #27 defense TY has been Jason Pierre-Paul whose 16.5 sks is quite impressive as he entered 2011 as the #3 pass rusher for the team. The LB?s are avg even behind a strong DL, but the
secondary has been a major liability TY due a lack of depth. They?ve given up five 300 yd passing games avg 335 ypg (58%) w/a 15-3 ratio in those. This is another unit getting healthier late in the ssn though and SS Kenny Phillips has been excellent when healthy. The Giants spec tms aren?t much better than 2010?s #29 unit as they?ve struggled on both sides of the ball on punts and are below avg on KR?s. At the start of the year Alex Smith was viewed as being on borrowed time. Having been a 15 year NFL QB himself, Harbaugh has took to the practice field and tutored Smith how to run his straight forward
offense. SF?s 2 TE set to allows them to control the LOS and give variety to the ground game. While the 49ers have yet to have a 1,000 yd receiver since they drafted Smith, Frank Gore has run for 1,000 yds in 5 of the L/6 seasons. Only DEN/HOU ran the ball more times TY than SF, as Gore had 5 straight 100 Yd games in Oct/Nov as OC Greg Roman started to adjust for more passing from that point. WR Michael Crabtree finally started to mature into an NFL player TY and he likely would have had his first 1,000 yd ssn if not for another foot injury. The real #1 option in the passing game is TE Vernon Davis as 40 of his 67
rec?s were for FD?s. SF?s passing game is muddled after that as while Kyle Williams has shown some flash they don?t have another dependable quality option. This has led to their #30 red-zone finish as out of 193 off drives only 32 ended in a TD and only CIN?s 30 had fewer among the playoff teams. SF?s OL was much more stable with Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati in their 2nd ssns as the 49ers started their L/13 games with the same unit. Pass protection is still an issue as they gave up 1 sk for every 10.3 att?s. SF?s #4 def is the best finish for an NFC West team since realignment thanks to their elite def front 7 TY. DE Justin Smith played at an NFL MVP level TY and sets the tone for the entire unit. Smith?s 7 sks is actually impressive
for a 3-4 DE and he often was the setup blk?r for Aldon Smith who came in for pass rush situations. Smith was a part of the best LB unit in the NFL TY along with All-Pro LB Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman who dominated in his 1st ssn as a starter. With SF having the #1 rush def TY (69 ypg, 3.2 at home), their #16 pass def is a bit misleading as they are 1 of 5 tms with more int than pass TD?s allowed. SF simply owns the best spec teams unit TY thanks to picking up one of best STC coaches in Brad Seely. The Giants remind us of last year?s Packers squad using late season momentum and being in better health than earlier in the season. The Giants have proven to be road warriors pulling upsets at PHI (+8.5, 29-16), at NE (+9, 24-20) and at DAL (+4.5, 37-34). They also benefit from an earlier meeting here in which they outgained SF 395-305. The 49ers needed 5 Saints turnovers to survive last week and you can?t expect the emotion to match LW?s first playoff game at home since 2002. Since 1990 only 2 teams have won as a HD in the semi-final round going 0-2 SU/ATS the next week. SF has allowed a staggering 27 sacks their last 7 games and expect the now healthy NY D-line (17 sacks L/4 games inc 4 vs GB) to take over.


NY Giants by 9

 

[ldabdou]

The Giants beat the Packers because the Packers self-destructed. Rodgers missed numerous open receivers. When he did throw the ball accurately, the receivers dropped numerous balls that should have been caught.
Plus four turnovers and a really poor decision to go for it on fourth down, where Rodgers didn't even throw the ball.
Plus the fluke hail mary at the half.

Giants where handed that game by the unprepared Packers. The 49ers will be much more ready.

The Packers lost the game cuz they were one dimentional and predictable just like the aints were. Bottom line. U have to run the ball and play D to win!

 

[Senor Capper]

The Giants beat the Packers because the Packers self-destructed. Rodgers missed numerous open receivers. When he did throw the ball accurately, the receivers dropped numerous balls that should have been caught.
Plus four turnovers and a really poor decision to go for it on fourth down, where Rodgers didn't even throw the ball.
Plus the fluke hail mary at the half.

Giants where handed that game by the unprepared Packers. The 49ers will be much more ready.

just copying & pasting here (or trying to) Hombre :0008

 

[Cie]

The Packers lost the game cuz they were one dimentional and predictable just like the aints were. Bottom line. U have to run the ball and play D to win!

The saints abandoned the run becaues Pierre Thomas went down and they fell behind by 17 due to a rash of fumbles. The saints are not a 1 dimensional offense.

 

[heleanth]

just copying & pasting here (or trying to) Hombre :0008

I understand! Not trying to disagree or argue with anyone. Just my point of view.

I like all the write-ups. Enjoy reading others stats and opinions.

I appreciate your efforts! Thank you!:toast: