Champs League - OK let's try this again

[flapjack]

Took Ajax and the draw yesterday knowing Juventus was already through and did not need the win. Result Juve 1, Ajax 0. Going back to the well. Chelsea vs PSG. Chelsea has nothing to gain, PSG - everything:

Mourinho set to rest star against PSG

Jose Mourinho has emphasised that big-money reputations count for nothing at Chelsea.
The Blues boss is ready to make more changes for Wednesday's Champions League Group H clash with Paris St Germain at Stamford Bridge.

But he will not be forced into playing the club's most famous names just because billionaire owner Roman Abramovich paid out vast sums to bring them to London.

Mourinho prefers to give his top players a rest when they need it and that is why goalkeeper Petr Cech, midfielder Claude Makelele and right-back Paulo Ferreira will take no part in proceedings tonight.

Instead, Mourinho will turn to Carlo Cudicini, Scott Parker and Glen Johnson as he looks to continue their unbeaten record in the Champions League.

Mourinho says: 'I don't look to names, I don't look to faces, I don't look to the money the club spent on them, I look just for performances and they have to fight for a position. It is that simple.

'I don't play Petr Cech, I play Carlo Cudicini; I don't play Paulo Ferreira, I play Glen Johnson; I don't play Claude Makelele, I play Scott Parker.

'These three are out of the group, not even selected. Didier Drogba will not start but may get half an hour. John Terry is selected.'

Terry's inclusion is a surprise as the England centre-back was suffering with a neck injury against Bolton, but such is the esteem in which he is held by the Chelsea manager that Terry will be at the heart of the Blues' defence once again.

With qualification for the next stage already assured, it would be easy for Chelsea to take it easy against both PSG and Porto in their next two games.

But Chelsea are quick to rubbish such a suggestion, and they are at pains to point out that they will certainly not be trying to smooth the path of CSKA Moscow, with whom Abramovich has sponsorship links, into the second round.

Taking:

PSG +555 $50
Chel/PSG Draw +285 $50

 

[HoopsGuru]

would you consider taking psg +1 (-133). I know the return isn't that great, but based on their qualifying already it seems unlikely that chelsea wins this match by more than 1 goal. it should either win or push in my mind. let me know your thoughts. Thanks for the write-up

 

[flapjack]

I do not like that as much, but still makes sense. A draw results in a push when you are taking a side. So, taking PSG straight up and the draw is almost the same as PSG +1 (You just lose instead of push with a 1 goal Chelsea victory). But , the big difference is that if you put $50 on each, and it draws, you win $143. If PSG wins, you lose the draw bet, but stilll at +555 on the side, you would win $227. If they lose, you lose $100. You take PSG +1 to win $50 and sure, if they lose by 1 you push and more than one you only lose $65 instead of $100 but the payoff on a draw or win so much lower.

That is just my opinion, I think if you want to go conservative as far as risk/reward, your bet makes more sense than mine. I'm just resting my hopes on PSG pulling off a draw or upset for a big pay-off. That being said, if I would have taken Ajax +1 yesterday instead what I did yest and today, I would have pushed instead of lost and I would have more money in my pocket today.

Either way, go PSG!!!!

 

[HoopsGuru]

this was actually at the greek. thanks for the clarification. think i'll take the draw and win each for a unit. thanks again for the nice write up

 

[flapjack]

Edited my reply above - misread your post. Sorry!

 

[flapjack]

Nice Victory!