Chart help?

[ScreaminPain]

somewhere I remember seeing a chart that showed the direct correlation between a teams chances of winning and the Money line. Does anyone know where I can view this thing...???
.....or any way to compute it. :shrug:

ex: Team A: 55%...= -145 or whatever?

 

[yak merchant]

Well if you want actual results from previous years good luck. But the chart you are talking about is probably the break even chart and it's easy to calculate

If a team is a favorite (ie -150)

formula is (Spread * -1)/(100 + (-1*Spread))
ie 150/(100+150) = 150/250 = 60% to break even


If a team is dog. (ie + 150)

formula is 100/(100+spread)

ie 100/(100+150) = 100/250 = 40% to break even.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

Well if you want actual results from previous years good luck. But the chart you are talking about is probably the break even chart and it's easy to calculate

If a team is a favorite (ie -150)

formula is (Spread * -1)/(100 + (-1*Spread))
ie 150/(100+150) = 150/250 = 60% to break even


If a team is dog. (ie + 150)

formula is 100/(100+spread)

ie 100/(100+150) = 100/250 = 40% to break even.

u lost me at well :mj07:

 

[yak merchant]

Well...................

Try this

edit link off the forum
refer to handicappers page:admin

http://madjacksports.com/forum/handicappers.php?c=16

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

this has gotta be one of the most important formulas in handicapping...it is for me, at least.

If you play nothing but +100 games then obviously you need to hit 50% of your plays to break even.

If you're playing point spreads, say at -110, then you need to hit 53% to survive, e.g.

110 (standard wager) / 210 (total payoff--wager+winnings)
= 0.5238, or 52.3%

this works for any odds
for example +110 would be
100 / 210
=0.476 or 47.6%

I know I'm just repeating what yak merchant said above, but I think such is worth repeating if it may benefit someone who didn't catch it the first time.

If you can develop a good system that gives you percentages on sides (or totals for that matter) then you can easily see if there is any value in a given line.

Value rules

Rock and Roll

 

[Old School]

Moneyline Breakeven Chart-

FAV.............. DOG
-105 51.2% 105 48.8%
-110 52.4% 110 47.6%
-115 53.5% 115 46.5%
-120 54.5% 120 45.5%
-125 55.6% 125 44.4%
-130 56.5% 130 43.5%
-135 57.4% 135 42.6%
-140 58.3% 140 41.7%
-145 59.2% 145 40.8%
-150 60.0% 150 40.0%
-155 60.8% 155 39.2%
-160 61.5% 160 38.5%
-165 62.3% 165 37.7%
-170 63.0% 170 37.0%
-175 63.6% 175 36.4%
-180 64.3% 180 35.7%
-185 64.9% 185 35.1%
-190 65.5% 190 34.5%
-195 66.1% 195 33.9%
-200 66.7% 200 33.3%
-205 67.2% 205 32.8%
-210 67.7% 210 32.3%
-215 68.3% 215 31.7%
-220 68.8% 220 31.3%
-225 69.2% 225 30.8%
-230 69.7% 230 30.3%
-235 70.1% 235 29.9%
-240 70.6% 240 29.4%
-245 71.0% 245 29.0%
-250 71.4% 250 28.6%
-255 71.8% 255 28.2%
-260 72.2% 260 27.8%
-265 72.6% 265 27.4%
-270 73.0% 270 27.0%
-275 73.3% 275 26.7%
-280 73.7% 280 26.3%
-285 74.0% 285 26.0%
-290 74.4% 290 25.6%
-295 74.7% 295 25.3%
-300 75.0% 300 25.0%

 

[ScreaminPain]

Thanks to those who replied. I'm traveling now and couldn't get to a computer sooner.

I'm looking for something a little different. I know the break even amounts for odds, but thanks for posting (old school). Maybe I didn't explain it properly earlier. I'll try it again.

Lets, say I 'cap a game, using criteria I deem important, and decide that team "A" has 55% chance of winning a particular game. Now, what should the true money line be in order to correlate to my 55%? In other words, how much wood should I lay to get proper odds? :shrug:

There is a chart for this, but I can't find it. I know it can be calculated, but I'm so lazy I don't want to do the math each day.... :mj07:

 

[yak merchant]

I may have no idea what you are talking about? How much wood? If you are 100% sure the team has a 55% chance don't lay wood over -120, just use the chart backwards. If you are trying to use Kelly Criterion on how much to bet, you'll probably have to do the calculation, as the amount to bet depends on the money line and your expected win percentage. That being said it's a bad idea, as at some point you'll grossly overestimate your win precentage, and the Kelly Criterion, will make sure your bankroll gets whacked.

 

[ScreaminPain]

I may have no idea what you are talking about? How much wood? If you are 100% sure the team has a 55% chance don't lay wood over -120, just use the chart backwards. If you are trying to use Kelly Criterion on how much to bet, you'll probably have to do the calculation, as the amount to bet depends on the money line and your expected win percentage. That being said it's a bad idea, as at some point you'll grossly overestimate your win precentage, and the Kelly Criterion, will make sure your bankroll gets whacked.

Thanks, Yak....I'm not using Kelly Criterion. It's more about determining VALUE, not breakeven.

Using the previous example of team "A" being a 55% fav. to win: If a "chart" determine's that 55% is equal to -140 and I all my outs have the game at -180, then there is no value in betting the game. I'm laying more wood than necessary for a team with only slim chance of victory. Conversly, if my outs have the same game at +120, then there is great VALUE in placing that bet.

There is a chart that breaks this down....but where?

It should look something like this:
% to win.........Money Line
40%...............+115
45%...............+110
50%................-110
55%................-115
60%................-120
etc.....etc.....

 

[yak merchant]

Dude, you may need to reevalute this whole gambling thing. Instead of starting with column 1 or 3, start with column 2 or 4. And find the 55% of whatever's closest to it, and then look into column 1 or 3 to find the corresponding break even line. And if the line posted by the magical bookie is greater than the line in column 1 or 3 bet it, if not don't. Maybe old school will repost with his table flipped around so it'll make it easier? You could create a chart that required a certain ROI that would tell you what the required difference between the break even money line and the actual money line should be to ensure a certain profit (if your estimated win percentage was 100% accurate), but I doubt you are going to find that on the internet.