My picks [all lines from Pinnacle]:
Harvick 12-1 to win
Has finished in top 5 in 7 of last 15 races. Only Newman has been better.
McMurray 35-1 to win
I think he's a top 8 driver and the odds should be closer to 25-1.
Elliott 50-1 to win
Poor track record in Phoenix, but has finished top 5 in 40% of last 15 starts.
TLaBonte 100-1 to win
Two top 5's in last 15 merit lower odds than 100-1.
Newman +118 JGordon
Gordon has a decent track record, but Newman is the better driver, and enjoys a 9-6 head-to-head advantage over Gordon in 2003 (for h2h records, I discard races in which either driver did not finish and/or one finished within 5 places of the other -- trying to reduce the effect of luck).
BLaBonte +141 JBurton
LaBonte owns a commanding 12-3 h2h lead over Burton in 2003. I give a slight edge to LaBonte overall in this race and thus like the +141 odds.
Jarrett +183 Martin
Martin is better, but not +183 better. With a 15-20% chance Martin won't even finish the race, I can't see such high odds being justified. Jarrett is using a provisional, but poor starting positions generally don't have much effect on his finish.
Busch +105 JBurton
Busch is the better driver and holds a 12-3 h2h advantage. Busch is starting at #7, and usually does well when he qualifies well. Burton's track history isn't enough to give him the edge over Busch.
Kenseth +100 Martin
Am I missing something? Kenseth is 15-2 over Martin this year, and has a better recent track history. Only concern is that Kenseth is starting with a provisional, and generally fares poorly starting from the back. Still, these two drivers are not in the same class.
Newman +108 Stewart
Nothing against Stewart, but Newman is at the top of this field. It's not his best track, but not his worst either. Hard to figure out why Stewart would be favored over someone as consistently strong as Newman.
McMurray +113 JBurton
McMurray is 12-8 on the season vs. Burton. I'm hoping he is faster than he was last week and recovers the good form has shown over the last three months.
Sadler +146 Martin
Sadler has failed to finish 6 of his last 15 races (vs. 3 out of 15 for Martin). I think the odds reflect this discrepancy, which I believe is more due to luck than a consistent pattern. Martin has produced better results on the season, but if you look at the 9 races Sadler has finished of his last 15, vs. the 12 races Martin finished, Sadler has averaged a higher finishing position (16.6 vs. 18.2). It's not Sadler's best track, but I am looking for an upset.
Harvick 12-1 to win
Has finished in top 5 in 7 of last 15 races. Only Newman has been better.
McMurray 35-1 to win
I think he's a top 8 driver and the odds should be closer to 25-1.
Elliott 50-1 to win
Poor track record in Phoenix, but has finished top 5 in 40% of last 15 starts.
TLaBonte 100-1 to win
Two top 5's in last 15 merit lower odds than 100-1.
Newman +118 JGordon
Gordon has a decent track record, but Newman is the better driver, and enjoys a 9-6 head-to-head advantage over Gordon in 2003 (for h2h records, I discard races in which either driver did not finish and/or one finished within 5 places of the other -- trying to reduce the effect of luck).
BLaBonte +141 JBurton
LaBonte owns a commanding 12-3 h2h lead over Burton in 2003. I give a slight edge to LaBonte overall in this race and thus like the +141 odds.
Jarrett +183 Martin
Martin is better, but not +183 better. With a 15-20% chance Martin won't even finish the race, I can't see such high odds being justified. Jarrett is using a provisional, but poor starting positions generally don't have much effect on his finish.
Busch +105 JBurton
Busch is the better driver and holds a 12-3 h2h advantage. Busch is starting at #7, and usually does well when he qualifies well. Burton's track history isn't enough to give him the edge over Busch.
Kenseth +100 Martin
Am I missing something? Kenseth is 15-2 over Martin this year, and has a better recent track history. Only concern is that Kenseth is starting with a provisional, and generally fares poorly starting from the back. Still, these two drivers are not in the same class.
Newman +108 Stewart
Nothing against Stewart, but Newman is at the top of this field. It's not his best track, but not his worst either. Hard to figure out why Stewart would be favored over someone as consistently strong as Newman.
McMurray +113 JBurton
McMurray is 12-8 on the season vs. Burton. I'm hoping he is faster than he was last week and recovers the good form has shown over the last three months.
Sadler +146 Martin
Sadler has failed to finish 6 of his last 15 races (vs. 3 out of 15 for Martin). I think the odds reflect this discrepancy, which I believe is more due to luck than a consistent pattern. Martin has produced better results on the season, but if you look at the 9 races Sadler has finished of his last 15, vs. the 12 races Martin finished, Sadler has averaged a higher finishing position (16.6 vs. 18.2). It's not Sadler's best track, but I am looking for an upset.