Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
over 35?
In today's NFL you almost never see a total this low and for good reason. Even two defensive teams like you'll see tonight are going to struggle to stop the opposing offenses on every possession. The last four MNF have gone under the total which has led to some over-adjusting this week so there is some small value in the OVER.
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CUTLER OUT FOR BEARS IN MNF MATCHUP WITH 49ERS
BY: SYSTEMS ANALYST JAMES VOGEL
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18TH 2012
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The San Francisco 49ers (-7, Over/Under 36.5) and Chicago Bears are two of the top teams in the NFC, but that's with their respective starting quarterbacks. Concussions may make both unavailable come Monday night (8:30 PM EST ESPN). With Alex Smith and Jay Cutler potentially adding to the national viewing audience, it could be up to Colin Kaepernick and Jason Campbell to solve two of the toughest defenses in the league as the 49ers and Bears meet at Candlestick Park. San Francisco (6-2-1) and Chicago (7-2) lead the NFC West and North, respectively, and seem destined for the playoffs. The 49ers are hoping to go one step further this time and reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears were stopped one game short the previous season.
Those aspirations have been dealt a few major blows, specifically to the heads of Smith and Cutler. Smith was hit hard twice in last week's 24-all tie with St. Louis, leaving the game in the second quarter after overcoming blurred vision to throw a 14-yard touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree. "I feel good, better," Smith said. "I'm just going along with the process right now. Nothing's been decided. It's a whole long process that's up to the doctors. I just kind of do what they tell me. Contact obviously is the final straw."
The Bears believe Cutler's brain trauma came on a helmet-to-helmet hit by Houston's Tim Dobbins late in the first half of a 13-6 loss Nov. 11. Dobbins was fined $30,000 earlier this week. "We're still evaluating him, he's meeting with people, medical staff, our trainers and all of that, but he's getting better," coach Lovie Smith said. "We do have a little bit more time and that's always good." Playing on Monday also gives backup Campbell more time to work with the offense if Cutler can't play. Campbell completed 11 of 19 passes for 94 yards in relief last week, his first extensive playing time since a road win over the Texans with Oakland in Week #5 of last year.
He's started 70 games over the past six seasons, and has 70 touchdowns compared to 50 interceptions. "He's comfortable in the pocket, comfortable calling the plays," center Roberto Garza said. "Look at his track record. That speaks for itself. There's a reason why he's here, and there's a reason why he's in the situation he's in. "He probably should be starting somewhere. He's that type of player. Unfortunately, we're in this situation, but he's gonna step in there." Campbell has completed 51.0 percent of his passes for 239 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in two meetings with the Niners, both resulting in losses at San Francisco with Washington and the Raiders.
While Chicago may be turning to a veteran backup, the 49ers may be giving Kaepernick his first start. A second-round pick out of Nevada in the 2011 draft, Kaepernick's most extensive action came after Smith went out last week. He went 11 for 17 for 117 yards, while rushing eight times for 66 yards and a touchdown. He is approaching as if he will start against the Bears - the same way he prepares every week. "Same reps as always. Nothing really changes," Kaepernick said. "I've always been out there preparing myself to start."
Kaepernick's running ability gives San Francisco a different dimension than Smith offers, but the Bears' defense is fifth in the NFL, and excellent against the run, allowing 92.3 yards per game. Overall, Chicago gives up an average of 307.3 yards, and the unit leads the league with 30 turnovers and 19 interceptions. The Bears picked off Houston's Matt Schaub twice last week and held the Texans to a season-low 215 yards. The Niners' Frank Gore will try to continue his success against the Bears. He's totaled 215 yards and a touchdown on 37 rushes while the teams have split the last two meetings.
San Francisco took the most recent matchup 10-6 at home on November 12th, 2009, when Smith and Cutler faced off on national television. Another defensive struggle is likely since the 49ers are also among the best in the National Football League, ranking third while allowing 292.1 yards per game - 196.8 through the air. They've also shown the ability to get to the quarterback, getting eight of their 17 sacks in the past three games.
?PREGAME NOTES: Our history book chimes in with supportive numbers for San Francisco in this MNF clash between NFC Divisional Leaders, as the 49ers take the field 7-0 straight-up and versus the number as a host in this series, and 6-0 ATS the last six confrontations under the Monday night lights. Chicago, meanwhile is just 4-11-1 ATS as a non-division Monday night visitor (but 3-0 SU/ATS the last three), and 2-8 ATS as a single-digit underdog on the NFC west road.
--The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since November 26, 1989 during November on grass after a straight up loss as a favorite. The Bears are 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since December 18, 1993 as a underdog on grass versus a non-divisional foe before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 8-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since December 08, 1991 as a favorite the week after at home game as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
* HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
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--SAN FRANCISCO is 5-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 4-4 straight up against CHICAGO since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 versus the first half line when playing against CHICAGO since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
?MATCHUP POWER TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 12.6, OPPONENT 30.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 0-13 against the 1rst half line (-14.3 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 2.8, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--CHICAGO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 8.0, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 20.8, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 13-2 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 11.5, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*)
?SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 26.4, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 49-21 UNDER (+25.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 18.1, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 16.8, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 27.2, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 7.6, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 4*)
?COACHING TRENDS
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--Smith is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 25.6, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--Smith is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 20.2, OPPONENT 25.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--Smith is 44-23 UNDER (+18.7 Units) as an underdog as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.0, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--Smith is 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 21.6, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--Smith is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite as the coach of CHICAGO.
The average score was CHICAGO 4.5, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Harbaugh is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after playing a game at home as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 16.8, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--Harbaugh is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.9, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--Harbaugh is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 7.6, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 4*)
?BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points versus the first half line (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team (outgaining opponents by 1+ YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP), after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season.
(42-16 since 1983.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.9, Opponent 6.4 (Average first half point differential = +9.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
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Reds Sheet
DEN 37-20
PIT
CLE
SF
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