Chicago at Green Bay Write-ups

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The loud thud you heard emanating out of the NFC North last week was a result of the air being let out of the balloon of the high and mighty Green Bay Packers. A perfect season ruined, the focus now moves to the post-season for the defending Super Bowl champs as priority-one turns to shoring up a defense that has deteriorated 90 YPG from last year?s trophywinning squad. And the depleted Bears appear to be the perfect patsy. On the brink of playoff elimination and spiraling downward since the loss of QB Jay Cutler four games ago, Chicago suffered another devastating loss when star WR Johnny Knox broke his back last week. Add to that the arrest of WR Sam Hurd for drug traffiicking and suddenly things aren?t so ?Lovie? in the Windy City these days. As a result, the Bears will need to rely on a superior ground game averaging 137 RYPG the last eight contests against a super-soft Packers stop-unit allowing 131 RYPG over the same span.

Thus the question is whether a ?Bubble Burst? is in effect for the Packers today?

The answer, courtesy of our powerful database, is a resounding YES, considering that NFL 13-0 or greater teams off their fi rst loss of the season are 0-4 SU and ATS in follow-up games since 1980. Toss in the fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 2-5 ATS as favorites of 12 or more points off an initial loss, along with Chicago?s 6-0 ATS mark as dogs when playing with triple revenge-exact, and we?ve got the makings of a live wounded Bear sighting in Green Bay Christmas night.

PACK by 10

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GREEN BAY 38 - Chicago 17

The Packers' quest for perfection is now by the boards. Hard to fathom zero pts in the first half at KC, & just 2 TDs & 16 FDs for the entire game.
Rodgers just 4/1 the past 2 wks, but still at 4,360yds & 41/6 for the year. Packers at 35.7 ppg in their last 7 outings, but allowing 421 ypg in their last 5 contests.

Can the Bears take advantage?

Hardly, with no Cutler or Forte, & Hanie sacked 15 times the last 3 wks (3 INTs in loss to Seattle).
So 4 straight losses for the once 7-4 Bears. Chicago is 9-32 ATS on Dec road, & 1-13 ATS as a Dec RD vs foe off SU/ATS loss. Pack: 40-18 ppg edge as host TY

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The perfect season ended for the Packers to the most surprising of foes. The Chiefs had a great game plan last week and for once the Packers did not get the breaks with turnovers that they seem to get every single week. It is unclear what the playing time will be for key players for Green Bay as the Packers suffered a couple costly injuries last week particularly on the offensive line and this is a team that may have locked up the #1 seed in the
NFC by game time with a 49ers loss. The Bears have lost four in a row and while the first three losses post Jay Cutler came in tight games, last week

Chicago was blown out by Seattle at Soldier Field. Caleb Hanie has three touchdowns and nine interceptions in four starts as the Bears have to be
upset they did not pursue another option stronger. The injury to Matt Forte has been just as devastating. At 7-7 the playoff hopes are very slim but this is a game that the Bears should get up for and the defense played much
better than allowing 38 points last week indicates.

Green Bay has been a strong home favorite and a good performer in this series in recent years and
this should be a bounce back situation for the Packers. Green Bay needs to get some positive momentum back and putting a mistake prone QB against a defense with the most interceptions in the NFL should allow the Packers to get back in the win column even if the starters get pulled early. That factor may result in a deflated line for the favorite.

PACKERS BY 14

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Game Breakdown: The Packers? quest for a perfect season is over. They struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers in last week?s loss at Kansas City, and with the injury problems on their offensive line protection could be an issue again versus a good Bears pass rush. Chicago should once again struggle to score with QB Caleb Hanie under center. In their last three games, Chicago?s offense has generated one touchdown and 20 total points. Hanie did play well in relief of Jay Cutler in last year?s NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, Bears close by throwing for 153 yards in the fourth quarter

GREEN BAY 29-20

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No doubt the Packers are angry and embarrassed about being upset by Kansas City last week, but with a mediocre defense, Greg Jennings out and multiple offensive line injuries they might be hard-pressed to cover a big number. The Packers may not be as motivated as Chicago either if they?ve already sewn up home-field advantage advantage throughout the playoffs before this Sunday night matchup begins. The Bears have put up only 47 points in four games since Caleb Hanie replaced injured Jay Cutler. Injuries to Cutler, Matt Forte and Johnny Knox have drained Chicago of its explosiveness. Green Bay has outscored its foes by 183 points, an average of 13
points per game.

GREEN BAY 30-17

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Chicago at Green Bay ? The Packers defeated the Bears, 27-17, in Week 3. The Packers are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS during the past six meetings.
The under has cashed in six of the last seven games.



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Veteran Josh McCown will get the start at QB for Chicago, and reserve Kalil Bell will start at RB. Backup QB Caleb Hanie (3 TDs vs. 9 ints.) has gone 0-4 in four starts replacing the injured Jay Cutler. RB Marion Barber is doubtful with a calf injury. McCown, who is 32 and was coaching high school football earlier this year, has 31 career starts with Arizona and Oakland. He last started nine games with the Raiders in 2007. Bell, in his thrid year from UCLA, has 162 YR in 13 games TY. Chicago WR Johnny Knox (37 recs.; fractured vertebra) and starting S Chris Conte (foot) will miss the rest of the season. DT Henry Melton
(7 sacks) is doubtful with a shin injury.


Green Bay starting RT Brian Bulaga will miss the game due to a sprained knee. Top backup T/G Derek Sherrod will miss the rest of the season with a broken leg. Former starting LT Chad Clifton, out the last nine games with a hamstring injury, has returned to light practice, but is not expected to play. The G.B. starting OL for this week was tentatively expected to be backup LT Marshall Newhouse (10th start at LT), backup Evan Dietrich-Smith (two career starts) at LG, regular C Scott Wells, regular RG Josh Sitton, and regular LG T.J. Lang switching to RT. The healthy backups would be youngster Ray Dominguez and newly-signed Herb Taylor. Meanwhile, G.B. is expected to see the return of a couple of its walking wounded, as RB James Starks (out most of the last four games with knee and ankle injuries) and RB Brandon Saine (out last week with a concussion) have been practicing. ILB Desmond Bishop (out the last three games with a calf injury) has practiced, and is probable. Starting DE Ryan Pickett (concussion) appears out
Partly cloudy, with temps in the 30s is the early forecast.
 

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The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (11.2 ppg) since December 30, 2007 in regular season games in December and January on grass after playing on the road.
The Packers are 7-0-1 ATS (13.2 ppg) since December 09, 2007 in regular season games in December and January after a straight up loss on the road.

The Bears are 0-10 OU (-5.7 ppg) since November 18, 2002 as a road 7+ dog after a straight up loss.
 

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers square-off at Lambeau Field on Christmas night with each team looking for the gift of a victory in this classic NFC North rivalry. The kick-off is slated for 8:20 p.m. (ET) and Sunday night?s game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Chicago limps into this game with a four-game losing streak that has put its postseason plans in serious jeopardy. It is currently 7-7 booth straight-up and against the spread on the year and the total has gone ?over? in eight if its 14 games this season.

First the Bears lost a good portion of their passing game when Jay Cutler went down with a hand injury. Next it lost its ability to effectively run the ball when Matt Forte injured his knee. The result has been an offense that has scored a total of 47 points in the four-game slide. The normally solid Chicago defense is starting to crack under the strain; giving-up 38 points as a 3.5-point home favorite in Sunday?s loss to Seattle.

Green Bay?s quest for a perfect season came to an end this past Sunday with a shocking 19-14 loss to Kansas City as an 11-point road favorite, but it is still in prime position to lock-up the No.1 seed in the NFC playoffs at 13-1 SU (9-5 ATS). The total stayed well ?under? the 46-point line against the Chiefs, but it has gone ?over? in nine of its previous 13 games.

The main concern for the Packers heading into this game is avoiding any more injuries to a team that suddenly a bit banged up. They already lost wide receiver Greg Jennings and have a couple of gaping holes in the offensive line, so keeping players healthy has to be in the back of head coach Mike McCarthy?s mind.

The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 3-3 ATS in their last six games on the road. The total has gone ?over? in five of their last seven games.

The Packers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games, but 5-1 ATS in six games at home this season. The total has gone ?over? in six of their last eight games overall and in five of the six home games.

Green Bay handled the Bears 27-17 on Sept.25 as a four-point road favorite to win four of the last five meetings SU. It is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed ?under? in all seven games.

The Packers will do enough on Sunday night to secure a win, but with Chicago to hang in there long enough to cover with the 13 points.

PICK: Green Bay Packers
 

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers square-off at Lambeau Field on Christmas night with each team looking for the gift of a victory in this classic NFC North rivalry. The kick-off is slated for 8:20 p.m. (ET) and Sunday night?s game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Chicago limps into this game with a four-game losing streak that has put its postseason plans in serious jeopardy. It is currently 7-7 booth straight-up and against the spread on the year and the total has gone ?over? in eight if its 14 games this season.

First the Bears lost a good portion of their passing game when Jay Cutler went down with a hand injury. Next it lost its ability to effectively run the ball when Matt Forte injured his knee. The result has been an offense that has scored a total of 47 points in the four-game slide. The normally solid Chicago defense is starting to crack under the strain; giving-up 38 points as a 3.5-point home favorite in Sunday?s loss to Seattle.

Green Bay?s quest for a perfect season came to an end this past Sunday with a shocking 19-14 loss to Kansas City as an 11-point road favorite, but it is still in prime position to lock-up the No.1 seed in the NFC playoffs at 13-1 SU (9-5 ATS). The total stayed well ?under? the 46-point line against the Chiefs, but it has gone ?over? in nine of its previous 13 games.

The main concern for the Packers heading into this game is avoiding any more injuries to a team that suddenly a bit banged up. They already lost wide receiver Greg Jennings and have a couple of gaping holes in the offensive line, so keeping players healthy has to be in the back of head coach Mike McCarthy?s mind.

The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 3-3 ATS in their last six games on the road. The total has gone ?over? in five of their last seven games.

The Packers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games, but 5-1 ATS in six games at home this season. The total has gone ?over? in six of their last eight games overall and in five of the six home games.

Green Bay handled the Bears 27-17 on Sept.25 as a four-point road favorite to win four of the last five meetings SU. It is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed ?under? in all seven games.

The Packers will do enough on Sunday night to secure a win, but with Chicago to hang in there long enough to cover with the 13 points.

PICK: Green Bay Packers

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

THE STORY: With their dreams of a perfect season snuffed out, it's no secret what the Green Bay Packers want for Christmas ? home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Packers can achieve that goal by snuffing out the reeling Chicago Bears on Sunday night ? or it already may be settled by the time they wake up Christmas morning if the Seattle Seahawks can knock off the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday.

Should the Niners lose, Green Bay will secure the No. 1 overall seed and Packers coach Mike McCarthy will have the luxury of resting some of his key players. That's an option McCarthy would love to have after watching top wide receiver Greg Jennings and starting RT Bryan Bulaga sidelined the past two weeks with knee injuries.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Packers opened at -13.5 and have been bet down to -11. The total has also fallen, coming down from 44.5 to 43 points.

WEATHER: Those bettors dreaming of a white Christmas won?t find it at Lambeau Field. While temperatures will be in the high 20s, there?s just a 14 percent chance of snow.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-7, 7-7 ATS): Chicago has gone belly up since QB Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb, absorbing four consecutive losses to put its postseason hopes on life support. The Bears finally pulled the plug on Caleb Hanie, who looked overmatched in his four-game stint. He had two interceptions returned for TDs last week as Seattle scored 31 unanswered points in a 38-14 win.

In a desperate measure, the Bears will start Josh McCown, who was coaching at the high school level last month and last started in the United Football League last year. McCown hasn?t started an NFL game since 2007, and his task won?t be any easier with RB Matt Forte sitting out a third straight game.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (13-1, 9-5 ATS): With Jennings out of the lineup, Aaron Rodgers had his roughest game of the season in Sunday?s 19-14 loss at Kansas City. He failed to throw multiple TD passes for the first time this season, completed fewer than half his passes and his 235 passing yards were a season low. It also represented the fewest points scored by Green Bay since a 10-3 victory over Chicago in the 2010 regular-season finale.

The running game should get a boost with the expected turn of James Starks, who has sat out the last two games with an ankle injury. Ryan Grant rushed for 151 yards while Starks was out, but he had a total of only 22 carries in the two games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers have beaten the Bears three straight, including a 21-14 win in last season?s NFC title game and a 27-17 victory earlier this season. The last two have been in Chicago.

2. McCown has appeared in 48 games with five different teams. He has thrown 35 TD passes and 41 interceptions in his career.

3. Rodgers broke the franchise record with his 40th TD pass last week, becoming the fifth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
* Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Bears 13. Green Bay sews up the No. 1 seed by beating Chicago at home for the fourth straight time.
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For the Bears, Caleb Hanie is out and Josh McCown is in. Big deal. Jay Cutler?s worst break was not to his thumb but that this wasn?t a contract year for him. There was optimism that Cutler would be back for the playoffs. There was optimism that the Bears would actually be in the playoffs. There was optimism Sam Hurd would be satisfied with his overly generous contract and not feel compelled to start a drug enterprise on the side. The Packers won by 10 in Chicago way back in week three when the Bears were starting to come on. Chicago is now virtually out of this thing when they looked like a lock to make it just a month ago. That?s mentally draining and they?ll come in here knowing they have no shot of winning. Chicago has been useless since losing Cutler and now facing their arch-rivals, off their first loss, expect the Packers to roll here against a team they hate and will have no mercy for.

Play: Green Bay ?12 +100 (Risking 2 units).


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The perfect season ended for the Packers to the most surprising of foes. The Chiefs had a great game plan last week and for once the Packers did not get the breaks with turnovers that they seem to get every single week. It is unclear what the playing time will be for key players for Green Bay as the Packers suffered a couple costly injuries last week particularly on the offensive line and this is a team that may have locked up the #1 seed in the NFC by game time with a 49ers loss. The Bears have lost four in a row and while the first three losses post Jay Cutler came in tight games, last week Chicago was blown out by Seattle at Soldier Field.

Caleb Hanie has three touchdowns and nine interceptions in four starts as the Bears have to be upset they did not pursue another option stronger. The injury to Matt Forte has been just as devastating. At 7-7 the playoff hopes are very slim but this is a game that the Bears should get up for and the defense played much better than allowing 38 points last week indicates. Green Bay has been a strong home favorite and a good performer in this series in recent years and this should be a bounce back situation for the Packers. Green Bay needs to get some positive momentum back and putting a mistake prone QB against a defense with the most interceptions in the NFL should allow the Packers to get back in the win column even if the starters get pulled early. That factor may result in a deflated line for the favorite.

?TOP RATED TRENDS
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--GREEN BAY is 14-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 45-23 OVER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 30-12 OVER after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

--CHICAGO is 0-9 ATS away vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 3-17 ATS away versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 8-27 ATS away in December games since 1992.

?BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(38-13 since 1983.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 12.4 (Total first half points scored = 23.7)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).


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CHICAGO/GREEN BAY UNDER --- The Bears are using their third-string QB and their third-string RB while missing Johnny Knox at WR. The Packers are missing four of their five starters on the offenstive line and there's a good chance they sit Aaron Rodgers once they get a favorable lead. Remember, the Packers do need a win to ensure home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, but they also don't want to win home field advantage at the expense of their QB either.




It's a tough spot for HC Mike McCarthy to be in, but I can tell you this... he'd rather play a road playoff game with Aaron Rodgers than have home field without him... and considering Rodgers will have very little protection up front and the Bears have one of the better pass-rushes in the league, it's going to be a very short game for Rodgers if he starts getting pressured, hit, and sacked.




Both teams want to run the football to speed this game up. Honestly, neither one wants to be playing this game on Christmas night when they both know their post-season fate. Chicago has no chance to go to the playoffs while the Packers are still the best team in the NFL and will likely get the #1 seed.




The total is sitting around 42 1/2 at the time of this writing, and I'm still trying to figure out a way the Bears are going to score. No Jay Cutler. No Caleb Hanie. No Matt Forte. No Marion Barber. They're counting on Josh McCown and Khalil Bell to score against this defense?? Sorry, kinda like the Rams against the Steelers Saturday, I don't see how they move the ball. As for Green Bay, they'll score some points because Rodgers should be able to find his receivers over the middle against this Bears cover-2, but let's also not forget Chicago can play some pretty good defense when they want.




This is a rivalry game and I can't think of another game on their schedule they'd like to win. Expect a lot of running and a lot of defense. I'm looking at something in the neighborhood of 20-6 Green Bay, which puts us well under the posted total.
 

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CHICAGO/GREEN BAY UNDER --- The Bears are using their third-string QB and their third-string RB while missing Johnny Knox at WR. The Packers are missing four of their five starters on the offenstive line and there's a good chance they sit Aaron Rodgers once they get a favorable lead. Remember, the Packers do need a win to ensure home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, but they also don't want to win home field advantage at the expense of their QB either.




It's a tough spot for HC Mike McCarthy to be in, but I can tell you this... he'd rather play a road playoff game with Aaron Rodgers than have home field without him... and considering Rodgers will have very little protection up front and the Bears have one of the better pass-rushes in the league, it's going to be a very short game for Rodgers if he starts getting pressured, hit, and sacked.




Both teams want to run the football to speed this game up. Honestly, neither one wants to be playing this game on Christmas night when they both know their post-season fate. Chicago has no chance to go to the playoffs while the Packers are still the best team in the NFL and will likely get the #1 seed.




The total is sitting around 42 1/2 at the time of this writing, and I'm still trying to figure out a way the Bears are going to score. No Jay Cutler. No Caleb Hanie. No Matt Forte. No Marion Barber. They're counting on Josh McCown and Khalil Bell to score against this defense?? Sorry, kinda like the Rams against the Steelers Saturday, I don't see how they move the ball. As for Green Bay, they'll score some points because Rodgers should be able to find his receivers over the middle against this Bears cover-2, but let's also not forget Chicago can play some pretty good defense when they want.




This is a rivalry game and I can't think of another game on their schedule they'd like to win. Expect a lot of running and a lot of defense.

I'm looking at something in the neighborhood of 20-6 Green Bay, which puts us well under the posted total.

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In football, both the Bears and the Packers are very banged up as we head into the last two weeks of the the regular season, but whereas the Bears are not going to be making the playoffs and have nothing really to play for, the Packers still have to get a win to get home fiield advantage for the postseason.



After getting stunned last week at Kansas City, look for Green Bay to bounce back at home tonight. The Pack is 6-0 straight up at Lambeau, and they have coveoed in five of those six home games, including a 4-1 mark when laying double-digits at home this year.



Chicago is now going with their third-string quarterback in Josh McCown, and they are still minus Matt Forte, and now receiver Johnny Knox. Can't expect the 12-points or so to hold up for very long tonight.



Packers cover again at home.



Trace Adams Sunday's Selections ... Your Top-Rated 1000♦ is the Green Bay Packers as the home favcrite agaitnst the Chicago Bears. As I type my analysis, the Packers are listed as the 12-point choice. I also have a 500♦ NBA best bet going on the Chicago Bulls as the visitong favorite over the LA Lakers. Chicago is priced right around a 4-point choice as I type up my release on Saturday night.



Since it is Chirstmas, I am going to be brief, as I have family that deserves some attencion on this sacred day.



I have to believe that as prideful as the Chicago defense is, they just won't be able to hold off the Packers in this game. I say lay the 12-points with Green Bay, as they need to get sometthing positive working prior to the playoffs. Green Bay's injury list is starting to grow, but the bottom line is they are still vying for the home-field edge in the NFC playoffs, and they are 6-0 straight up at home this year. The Packers are 5-1 against the spread at home as well, and they are taking on a Chicago team that is going to start Josh McCown - a 3rd string journeyman under center!



The Bears skid has hit 4 in a row straight up. and 1-3 against the spread, and with Chicago 1-4 straight up, and just 2-3 agaiost the spread the last 5 times they have faced Green Bay, it will only be a matter of time before this double-digit impost is covered.



Pack by 14 points tonight.
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One of the best rivalries in football will take place Christmas night up at Lambeau Field, where the Packers will attempt to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win against the struggling Bears, who have been decimated by injuries. Chicago will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler, running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Johnny Knox. In short, Chicago will be without much of an offense at all. That does not bode well against the best team in football, even if the Packers' defense is considered suspect. Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games versus Green Bay

Green Bay Packers -12

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Green Bay has won the last three meetings and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus Chicago. Take the Packers on Christmas night at Lambeau Field to clobber the injury-riddled Bears. Green Bay has not lost at home this season, 6-0 at home.


Green Bay Packers -12
 

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Saturday, December 24, 2011

LOSSAH Denver at Buffalo Denver Broncos -3

WINNAH Arizona at Cincinnati Cincinnati Bengals -4

OUTRIGHT WINNAH Minnesota at Washington Minnesota Vikings +6?

HUGE WINNAH Tampa Bay at Carolina Carolina Panthers -7?

LOSSAH Cleveland at Baltimore Baltimore Ravens -13

LOSSAH Jacksonville at Tennessee Tennessee Titans -7?

WINNAH Oakland at Kansas City Oakland Raiders +2?

WINNAH Miami at New England New England Patriots -9?

OUTRIGHT WINNAH NY Giants at NY Jets New York Giants +3

WINNAH St. Louis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers -16

HUGE LOSSAHS San Diego at Detroit San Diego Chargers +2?

PUSH San Francisco at Seattle San Francisco 49ers -2

OUTRIGHT WINNAH Philadelphia at Dallas Philadelphia Eagles +2

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Sunday, December 25, 2011


PENDING Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay Packers -13 ***


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Monday, December 26, 2011

PENDING Atlanta at New Orleans New Orleans Saints -6?


*** BEST BET


2011Season ATS 120- 96- 7

BEST BETS 9-5 ATS
 
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