Chick-Fil-A - LPGA

[Ian]

Got to agree with Clive on Gustafson at the 33/1 Centrebet and have also gone for 2 of his other selections at slightly better odds (sorry mate - but if you will go out to work ) - Steinhauer 125/1 and Neumann 66/1

 

[bettingmad]

I know it's unfashionable to tip players under 20/1... and I did try my hardest with bigger prices Jones, Diaz & Kane... (Tewell & Watson in seniors) but this week it looks blindingly obvious....

So gone are the singles (bad I know... should never back a winner have have nothing to draw)... but it's Sorenstam 2/1 & Irwin 6/1 at Surrey for a 20/1 double.

At 1/4 first 5... and their event and recent form you would have to beat them with a stick to keep them out of the places..... 2.5 points win and 1 point place recovers the stake at least!

 

[Svengali]

Over all Gustaffson each way looks a great value option with her record here, definitely EW. (can't find better than 28-1 without sending my birth certificate to Autralia).

However, match bet choice is -

Steinhauer to beat Weiss @betandwin.com (9/10)
Steinhauer has a great record here with finishes of 11, 4 and 11 in last 3 years. She isn't on sparkling form this year but has only missed 1 cut since the Summer. Weiss on the other hand has only made the cut here once in the last four years and has only been in the top half of the field once this year. Does sound like it should be the a match-up in the Black Forest Ladies' Masters but what the hell!

 

[Ian]

Welcome Svengali again - We are friendly round here!
Have to say we are in agreement on the above match bet and put it on the site a while back - I have a feeling it will not be on offer come Friday morning

 

[Svengali]

Cheers Ian. Probably being blind here but when you say you put the Steinahuer bet on the site earlier which site do you refer to? Whether it is around tomorrow or not iwe will see - betandwin have risen from Simonbold's ashes with all the limited liability!

 

[Ian]

Svengali - no advertising allowed - see my profile

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights to place only@Sia 1 unit each
Robbins 10/1
Bowie 20/1

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorie Kane to be placed 6.25/1 @ Sportsinteraction (best e.w. 25/1 @ Ladbrokes or NetBetSports)
Priced at just over half the above e.w. odds at Surrey, Kane has obvious value. She has finished in the top-5 in four out of five starts at Eagle's Landing and has shown some good form this season. Should be a good course on which to continue that run.

Rosie Jones to be placed 8.25/1 @ Sportsinteraction (best e.w. 25/1 @ Bet365 or Surrey)
One of the most consistent players on Tour. She has finished outside the top-20 in just one event since the U.S. Women's Open in June last year and that was the AFLAC Champions where she finished 21st. Her record is equally consistent on this course and should be in contention on Sunday.

Grace Park to to be placed 10/1 @ Sportsinteraction (best e.w. 40/1 @ Ladbrokes or NetBetSports)
Park does not have good course form, but she has entered this event in the middle of a slump during her two previous visits. In 2000 she had missed the two previous cuts and followed the event with a 64th place and two more missed cuts. In 2001, she entered the event having finished 58th, 68th and missed the cut in her previous three events and went on to miss the cut in her next two events. No such lack of confidence this year. With the exception of her 1st round withdrawal due to a back injury in the Office Depot Championship, she has a finished in the top-10 in four of five starts and 18th in the other. With a game similar to those of Robbins and Gustafson who have played particularly well on this course, this should be the year she conquers this course.

Rather a conservative approach this week to play place-only rather than each-way. The simple truth is that while they have all won on Tour, they do not convert their chances frequently enough and do not have a good record against this week's headline players: Annika Sorenstam, Karrie Webb and Se Ri Pak. Despite the form of all three selections, only Grace Park has managed to avoid having one of the Big Three finish ahead of her in each event. In the Welch's/Circle K Championship, she finished 3rd ahead of Webb 5th and Sorenstam 7th, and in the Longs Drugs Challenge she finished 5th ahead of Pak 8th. It hardly bodes well for an outright win this week against all three of them!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Laura Diaz -102 @ Five Dimes
Mi Hyun Kim to beat Kelly Robbins -110 @ Surrey
Se Ri Pak to beat Juli Inkster -111 @ BetandWin
Rosie Jones to beat Cristie Kerr -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Gloria Park to beat Jean Bartholomew -111 @ BetandWin

 

[Clive]

bmad

what can I say!!?? Are you sure you didn't mean to post your selections to Bookiebusters?

We will be arranging an exorcism to rid you of this devil inside which compels you to back short priced favs.
Can't imagine sitting in front of my PC on Sun eve worrying over my 2/1 shot!

You can, of course take the piss when they romp home, but I won't care if one of the following makes the frame;

Steinhaeueaueueuaueur was 125/1 which tempted me to add to the value 80 I picked on Monday!

Neumann 66/1 Decent price looks on the way back and has won here

Gustafson 33/1 covered by all and sundry above

Bowie 80/1 been quietly doing well for 2 years, two place finishes already this year

all good VALUE bets!!!

 

[bettingmad]

Clive,
I knew what was coming.... cringed in dread when I made the post!

But if Hale does the business.... my 2/1 will feel more like 20/1.... and let's face it... Annika has won 5 of her last 9 outings.... which makes her a shade odds-on in percentage terms.... (pardon me as I choke here...) but this is surely 'value'.... as what price would Tiger be if he were on the same streak.... definitely odds-on?

Even Stanley is going place only this week.... and although you are well in front this year... personally I think you could be further ahead... if only you could exorcise the devil inside you that will not allow selections below 20/1.... I remember you saying Ernie would win in Dubai... yet you tipped 3 donkeys against him as the price was too short... on what was the banker of the year so far?

Each to his own.....but try to .....free your mind........

 

[MrChristo]

What's going on at the LPGA guys?

Is it raining?

I can't seem to get updated scores :shrug:

Thanks.

 

[Stanley]

Two delays for bad weather today and they've shortened the event to 36 holes

 

[Clive]

Fascinating situation with Pak the clubhouse leader and Robbins hasn't even teed off.

Should be a real shoot out with a couple of good players within a few shots...weather may still be a factor

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -0.35 units

Kim/Diaz LOST by 3
Kim/Robbins LOST by 4
Pak/Inkster LOST by 4
Jones/Kerr WON by 2
Park/Bartholomew WON by 13

Outrights: 1-2; +3.75 units

Kane 103rd
Jones 33rd
Park 4th

Rain-shortened event and the only profitable one of the week and the only outright win of the week. Was regretting the place-only approach as Park entered the last few holes tied for the lead with Inkster. But back-to-back bogeys and we have to settle for a tie for 4th place. Would have won virtually the same with an each-way bet at Ladbrokes or NetBetSports. Jones had finished the 1st round in 4th place, but was not there when it mattered.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

results
Outrights
Robbins 2nd 10/1
Bowie 17th

Week +9 units ytd +29.5

Was riding with you on Park Stan.She could not come close to making a putt when she hit the skids.I watched them all day instead of PGA.Mainly cause they showed Grace all day.SHE IS HOT!