Chiefs player prop driving me crazy

[EXTRAPOLATER]

(most things do...nevermind)

Mahomes to throw ov1.5 TD passes is listed at -165.
He could/should do this but I generally avoid such expensive tastes (save on the odd parlay).

Alternatively, these 2 props are listed separately:
Tyreek Hill TD receptions ov0.5 +122
Travis Kelce TD receptions ov0.5 +142

I realize that Mahomes hits many targets, but wouldn't taking any risk planned towards the Mahomes TD prop and instead splitting it up towards the receiver props make more sense?
Only need 1 to turn a profit and could certainly hit both.

Anyone interested in commenting on how one would go about assessing any value (positive or negative, value or comments) is welcome (and appreciated, believe it or not).

btw, Sammy Watkins TD recept is listed at +267.
More enticing by the price but way less enticing by my expectations for the game.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Here's another look:

12 games Mahomes has played in.
6 of 12 (surprisingly low) times he has thrown of 2 or more TDs.

#1 9/8: 3TD...Watkins caught all 3
#2 9/15: 4TD...Demarcus Robinson (2), Hardman, Kelce
#3 9/22: 3TD...Dem.Robinson,Hardman,McCoy
#4 10/13: 3TD...Hill (2),Damian Williams
#5 11/10: 3TD...Kelce,Hill,Hardman
#6 12/15: 2TD...Hill(2)

Pringle,Hardman,Kelce,Darrel Williams & Hardman were his other TD recipients (looking at all the 1-pass TD performances).

Stuff to look at like missed games but, for now, I know they are both playing and all 3 players currently looked to possess some mojo.
Kelce's only caught 4 all season, 1 from Matt Moore.
My main argument for the receivers props would be that it is hard to envision Mahomes throwing 2 or more TDs but not having Hill and/or Kelce among those targets.

Anyways, Chiefs are obviously going to host a playoff game, as opposed to having a shot at the first-round bye, so with their placed already really locked up I am not interested in betting my soul on this game, it must be said.

Maybe a small chunk of it, but not the whole thing.


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ouch...this is the shitty 2019 remastering of the Abbey Road medley...just suffering through it now to make sure I'm not sharing shit (I am, relatively speaking). Only other quick go I see is the BS 'restored' version where they toss the superfluous 'Her Majesty' in the middle of the medley, just to satisfy whatever demon is lurking at the bottom of the well of insanity.

Apologies, but I'll leave it for the one person in a million (meaning zero as sample size won't make it, here (I hope)) who is curious of said assessment of 2019 mix.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Assuming no Hill TD in the final 10.

1 unit on Mahomes ov1.5 TD tosses returns 1.6
1 unit split(0.5/each player prop) returns 1.21

More bad assumptions, perhaps?
Hindsight rocks.