China Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello +100 @ Bet365
Two players in fine form: Bourdy finished 2nd last week and Cabrera-Bello 4th, while neither has missed a cut for at least three months. However, two factors weight in favour of Bourdy: (1) in Bourdy's last six starts in China, he has made the cut every time and won once (2009 Hong Kong Open), wheras Cabrera-Bello's last six starts in China have yielded four missed cuts and no top-10 finishes; (2) since the start of last season, Bourdy has dominated this matchup early in events: 17-7 in rd1 and 16-9 in rd2.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Wall tb Colsaerts +100; Garcia tb Dyson -138; Harrington tb Yang -105]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Michael Campbell(180/1 Win and 34/1 Top 5) e.w.
- - I can't be alone with a fairly strong belief Michael Campbell is looking like a winner before the year is out, and a Top 5 at some point is almost a slam dunk. This doesn't seem a bad spot to come in a hoping for something more than a value loser.

Todd Hamilton(270/1 Win and 38/1 Top 5) e.w.
- - A value loser.

David Howell(150/1 Win and 17/1 Top 5) e.w.
- - A cool dude to fill out my speculative card.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Danny Willett to beat Rhys Davies +100 @ Stan James [also available @ SkyBet, Unibet and Boyle Sports]
Opposing Davies who tends to be better value in the outright markets than matchups. He lost out in a playoff for the Trophee Hassan II earlier this month, but has not finished in the top-50 in any other event in the last three months. By contrast, Willett has finished in the top-10 in the last two European Tour events and looks more likely to continue his form this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Lafeber tb Kapur +100; Singh tb Cabrera-Bello +138; Goya tb Kapur +115; Wall tb Drysdale +130]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and 5Dimes]
The same old problems with Garcia - he is still a world-class player from tee-to-green, but not on it. He ranks 2nd in driving distance this week, 5th in driving accuracy, 8th in greens in regulation and 5th in scrambling. Yet despite his problems on the greens - which is why he is 23rd and not higher - he has still shot the same score as Cabrera-Bello. He only needs a slightly warmer putter or a little luck on the greens and he should win this final round matchup.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Luiten tb Willett +100; Kjeldsen tb Stolz -138; Lawrie tb Stolz -145; Maybin tb Martin P +105; Horne tb Townsend +100; Hansen tb Wood +100; McGrane tb Liang +100; Andersson Hed tb Ramsay +120; Jonzon tb Alker -139; Han C tb Lee D -110]